First of all, this whole premise of "odds" assumes that the daily building is the goal. That is not always true for some players. So even to "lie" about the odds makes no sense for Inno, because ultimately every roll is giving a prize. The slot-machine analysis is interesting, but ultimately its not an analogue.
Buying sectors used to be pretty cheap; then the price quadrupled. We used to be able to fight as far ahead as we were able; then the "ring" system put a stop to that. AW we already won and deployed suddenly dropped in value one day. I see a pattern. My theory is that this was conceived as a five chapter game and was surprisingly successful. Now it's been stretched to thirteen chapter but they have to be more and more stingy with what they give players. I still play but only when the reward seems worth the candle. Some seem content to play the game for the rest of their lives, even if it's another 50 chapters just like the last 8. I'm constantly trying to judge when some other game will provide more entertainment for the time spent. But it's almost impossible to make a critical comment here without having it ground into dust by the same half dozen who seem to live on this board. Just another facet of the game that isn't as much fun as it once was.
Cheap sectors is obviously a problem. Look at the top 300 or so on every server. Those people realized the value, bought out everything they could, and now they're sitting pretty. So much less incentive to spend diamonds anywhere. The change to the pricing model in no way is a "trick" or Inno somehow acting poorly. They mis-priced their initial offering, and they corrected it. It happens all the time in the real world.
Same thing for the fighting, though its hardly as stark. I'm at the end of Amuni. I stopped taking optional squad sizes, and I'm at 420 provinces cleared. I'll easily get to 500 while every fight is still "easy" or "medium." Should it be "very easy"? No, probably not.
The one AW change (Crystal Lighthouse) was again an obviously needed change. Again, I'm in Amuni. If I had an old level 6 Crystal Lighthouse and visited every neighbor each day (which takes 5 minutes on my mobile device), I wouldn't need tier factories. That's obviously a problem, and its a mechanic that doesn't match the game design.
I agree 100% that Inno is relatively quick at fixing game problems that make the game too easy, and they drag their feet on pro-player changes (see Royal Restoration). But thats, like, every Free-to-Play game developer. I don't want you to think that the boards live to serve Inno's interests. I don't think that's the case, personally. But there's a difference between relatively absurd complaints about "bogus percentages" (which should on their face be dismissed, because 1 person rolling a dice 20 times, etc etc), versus actual complaints/honest discussion about the game (which I like to think are encouraged). There's a few forum commenters (myself, Soggy, others) that don't really encourage discussions about pie-in-the-sky suggestions ('gee, wouldn't it be great it we got 10 diamonds a day for logging in?I?" "well no, because Inno would just increase diamond costs of stuff, and they're trying to make money"). But I think each of the more recent chapters is at least "trying" to change up the guest race experience, and while the tourneys are stagnant and the FAs stink, there is some tweaking over time.