Yet another way the Carnival Event is rigged

[michmarc]

Aside from the issues that have been pointed out about how there are too few candies awarded to fully upgrade the grand prize, I have noticed another problem.

I keep a spreadsheet of the chests I've opened in these events. (It started out as a lazy way to "remember" which chest to open out of the three choices, but then it grew into a whole bunch of stat tracking.) I noticed that the chests are not offered with equal frequency.

There are 9 chests so you would expect that each chest would show up 11% of the time. And in the past, the actual measured percentage was narrowly focused between 10% and 12% (natural random variance).

This event, they are very lopsided and curiously, they bias is right down the lines of quality: The very best chest for getting artifacts is the 18 candy chest. That only appears 9% of the time for me -- the lowest of all of the chests. The worst chest (50 candy) appears a whopping 15% of the time, followed closely by the two 25 candy chests (13% each*). This is with 129 "rounds" (387 chests).

This bias greatly compounds the inability to reach a fully-evolved building.

[* My spreadsheet uses cost to index things which means that I can't distinguish between the two 25 candy chests in my notes. But because they are almost equally bad, I didn't put in any effort to fix this.]
[Me: I got 6 artifacts and I might get a 7th with the remaining 5 daily quests since I have only 7 more flags to get. This is the first event since I started the game in Carnival 2019 that I haven't been able to complete the grand prize.]

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

The worst chest (50 candy)

There is no 50 chest, so not sure which one you're referring to. Gold/54 chest is top 3 for grand prizes.

Also, having 13-15% outcomes with 11% expected on this sample size would not be particularly unusual.

 

[michmarc]

There is no 50 chest...

Sorry, I was looking at the wrong column (the one that had the award for candies in the chest). I meant the 41 candy chest.

 

[DeletedUser20524]

This entire event is perhaps the worst event yet. I've completed others no problem, this one I dont even much care to try any more. Build times and quantity of those long build times is excessive to say the least.

 

[The Unbeliever]

Aside from the issues that have been pointed out about how there are too few candies awarded to fully upgrade the grand prize, I have noticed another problem.

I keep a spreadsheet of the chests I've opened in these events. (It started out as a lazy way to "remember" which chest to open out of the three choices, but then it grew into a whole bunch of stat tracking.) I noticed that the chests are not offered with equal frequency.

There are 9 chests so you would expect that each chest would show up 11% of the time. And in the past, the actual measured percentage was narrowly focused between 10% and 12% (natural random variance).

This event, they are very lopsided and curiously, they bias is right down the lines of quality: The very best chest for getting artifacts is the 18 candy chest. That only appears 9% of the time for me -- the lowest of all of the chests. The worst chest (50 candy) appears a whopping 15% of the time, followed closely by the two 25 candy chests (13% each*). This is with 129 "rounds" (387 chests).

This bias greatly compounds the inability to reach a fully-evolved building.

[* My spreadsheet uses cost to index things which means that I can't distinguish between the two 25 candy chests in my notes. But because they are almost equally bad, I didn't put in any effort to fix this.]
[Me: I got 6 artifacts and I might get a 7th with the remaining 5 daily quests since I have only 7 more flags to get. This is the first event since I started the game in Carnival 2019 that I haven't been able to complete the grand prize.]

Drawing conclusions from one single player sample is beyond ridiculous... Seriously, 129 rolls without taking into account the literal millions of combined rolls from the rest of the player base?
I could do the same an argue that the system is beyond generous since I had a run of 9!! of the 18 chest show up in a row. (on top of generally going no more than 3-4 chest rounds without seeing the 18 chest appear. )

We know Elvenar's RNG system is beyond gak.
All one can really hope for is that when it comes to the odd event that offers an actual worthwhile prize, (phoenix + bears), you don't get gakked on & end up RNG-screwed on the low end of the bell curve.

 

[GlamDoll]

This bias greatly compounds the inability to reach a fully-evolved building.

Thanks for taking the time with math & all that jazz...but I learned months ago, that I WILL NOT get a fully evolved building without spending money now, regardless of math & luck!!!

BUT, to be fair, I used to (If luck was on my side) before the core of the Events were gutted!

 

[BadWon]

This game is fast approaching a PAY to PLAY. This past event was even more proof of this. I can not believe this event to one a year ago.The one a year ago was way more user friendly opposed to Company friendly......

 

[Deleted User - 1178646]

One year ago we had the phoenix event which is comming soon.

• no offence but unless you were really lucky you could get that one phoenix on level 9 without spending at least the +1 boosters for city candies.
• In the year before that you could only aquire the main prizes (last of usually 3 main prizes) if you focussed on "double days" so you could either get the main prize or a good daily but not both
• The year before that? the chances for a f2p to get the main prize complete was 0.01% (go figure)

And don;t forget "free" diamonds that you can now regulary get and spend on events from the the research tree, main quest line, wishing wells, spire, mystery chest did not even exist.

As a f2p player you have so many many many more f2p options now than you ever had in the past.
So claiming that this game is "approaching a pay to play" while history shows it's the opposite is at least to be called ignorant or oblivious.

 

[Enevhar Aldarion]

One year ago we had the phoenix event which is comming soon.

• no offence but unless you were really lucky you could get that one phoenix on level 9 without spending at least the +1 boosters for city candies.
• In the year before that you could only aquire the main prizes (last of usually 3 main prizes) if you focussed on "double days" so you could either get the main prize or a good daily but not both
• The year before that? the chances for a f2p to get the main prize complete was 0.01% (go figure)

And don;t forget "free" diamonds that you can now regulary get and spend on events from the the research tree, main quest line, wishing wells, spire, mystery chest did not even exist.

As a f2p player you have so many many many more f2p options now than you ever had in the past.
So claiming that this game is "approaching a pay to play" while history shows it's the opposite is at least to be called ignorant or oblivious.

The thing a lot of people also either ignore or refuse to accept is the only thing that has to be free in a free-to-play game is the completion of the main story of the game. In this case, that is the ability to complete all 15 current chapters, however long that may take, without ever having to spend money to advance the main part of the game. All other content and events are optional and a player has to decide if however much of the optional content they can complete without spending money is good enough for them or if they "must" complete all the optional content, even if that means they spend money.

 

[Black watch]

I miss the "double days"...

 

[juniperknome]

i hit the average every event so far it is just going to be a norm to have few over and few short. look to the fa there should be a couple of tokens to evolve the valentine float

 

[Daiman Rahl]

Face it any game that uses RNG is going to have players that win, and those that lose. That is a fact!!
I thought I did pretty good on chests. While scoring poorly on collecting daily prizes. three times I missed getting the daily.
Oh well maybe next time.

 

[DeletedUser25391]

The worst event I've played so far. Many lackluster prizes. Almost like the event was thrown together overnight by 3rd graders and parents...lol.
Too many disappointments to list.

 

[Deleted User - 4565442]

Then press your people to change it for phoenix because atm quests are the same and reward is far worse
Team on other forums doesn't discuss changes with us since autumn bears.

 

[Enevhar Aldarion]

Unless something changed, from what players on the Beta forum have said inrefernce to the game files is that its an artifact that is unique to the new phoenix. So I personally do not think that the artifacts offered in this years event will be able to be used on past phoenixes. I would love for this to be wrong though myself as I have a phoenix in one of my cities that hasn't been upgraded fully yet.

Just remember that data miners can only find new stuff in the files. Since the first Phoenix artifact is already in the game, there is no way for anyone to see if it will show up again or not, so maybe we will get lucky.

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

And of course, for non-sentient chapters, it's just larger and larger orders of magnitude worse.

Not really, it is great for early game - not for goods but for KPs.

Just remember that data miners can only find new stuff in the files. Since the first Phoenix artifact is already in the game, there is no way for anyone to see if it will show up again or not, so maybe we will get lucky.

We have never seen more than one artifact type in the major event though. It would be difficult to squeeze it into the current grand prize progression setup.

 

[Ashrem]

Just remember that data miners can only find new stuff in the files. Since the first Phoenix artifact is already in the game, there is no way for anyone to see if it will show up again or not, so maybe we will get lucky.

Excellent point. Enough to give me hope, fleeting though it may be.

We have never seen more than one artifact type in the major event though. It would be difficult to squeeze it into the current grand prize progression setup.

And there's the fleet.....

 

[Enevhar Aldarion]

We have never seen more than one artifact type in the major event though. It would be difficult to squeeze it into the current grand prize progression setup.

No, but there was that one FA where they gave both of the artifacts that came before it as prizes for stage 2 and 3. So maybe the FA after the next Phoenix event will do the same with the two different Phoenix artifacts?

 

[Xelenia]

I have moved some specific threads over. In the future, keep all beta related discussion in the designated thread found here: https://us.forum.elvenar.com/index.php?threads/news-from-beta-may-contain-spoilers.22111/

Thanks ^.^

 

[T6583]

Just remember that data miners can only find new stuff in the files. Since the first Phoenix artifact is already in the game, there is no way for anyone to see if it will show up again or not, so maybe we will get lucky.

Very good point. We can hope.