Average Lifespan - Truth or Lie?

[DeletedUser12423]

A thought occurred to me after our family lost another loved one this year. I was speaking with my mum and the topic came up again, that both sides of the family have had real bad luck and short lives. "He was way too young, too die."

Then we talked about the last few family members that are deceased, and realized, that they were ALL "too young, to die."

According to what I've read and heard, the average life expectancy is 78 years of age. Retirement is currently at 75 for some of us.
But as I listen to the News on TV or read the yahoo spam, I'm starting to highly doubt the census. From drug over-doses to distracted driving, cardiac arrest due to drinking too many energy drinks to natural diseases, birth defects to WAR... HOW can the average lifespan be over 70, when three quarters of mankind are dead before the age of 60? And less than 1% make it to the age of 85?

 

[ImajicaLuthiel]

People in my family are extremely long-lived....unless something kills them. To the best of my knowledge, not one person in my family has died of old age in the past four generations. My last living grandparent is currently 102 years old; the others died from various sudden illnesses and accidents well into their seventies and eighties.

 

[DeletedUser11886]

Life expectancy and average life span are not the same thing. "Life expectancy" is not how long the average person today will live. It is how long a person born in a given year can expect to live. A person born today has a life expectancy of about 75-80 years. A person born in 1950 has a life expectancy of 65 years, so people dying right now at age 65 are not particularly "young"

 

[DeletedUser3507]

https://www.bing.com/search?q=avera...-17&sk=&cvid=2562DAD8C6454229A9B3C4F49CE1B66C


71.4 years is the average life span currently per Bing as of 2015

 

[DeletedUser11886]

71.4 years is the average life span currently per Bing as of 2015

Yes. Average lifespan is always higher than expectancy for people who are over the median age. With a current median of around 38 years, anyone under 38 had a 50% chance at birth of living more than 71.4 years, while anyone over 38 had a less than 50% chance of making it to 71.4 when they were born. Complicating things, the fact that a person has reached 38 already means they have eliminated all the things that might have killed them before that, so now they have a pretty good chance of making it past 71, but still more than half of the people born the same day as them won't make it.

 

[DeletedUser3507]

I am 63 and still in relatively good health, and should make it at least another 12-20 years

 

[DeletedUser12423]

Life expectancy and average life span are not the same thing.

That makes sense, in a way. But in a way, it doesn't. I just don't see myself ever being able to retire, and 90% of my friends feel the same way.

Should one not expect to live one's average lifespan? Should one not expect to retire?

I also find myself questioning the very sources which provide such information.

 

[SoggyShorts]

According to what I've read and heard, the average life expectancy is 78 years of age.

As spirit mentioned, "Life expectancy" is based on being born today.
For example:
1950 world average[34] 48
2014 world average[35] 71.5
So basically every baby-boomer that is alive right now has beaten the average global life expectancy for their birth years.
For an American man born in 1950, the expectancy was ~65, so anyone born on or before 1950 in America that is still alive has also beaten the odds.

I just don't see myself ever being able to retire, and 90% of my friends feel the same way.

If I may ask, what age range are you in? (I'm in my late 30s)
Times certainly have changed compared to 50 years ago. Back then a man could totally support a family of 4 as a single earner and pay off a mortgage. In the last 50 years wages haven't really gone up when compared to inflation.
Even in just the past 25 years I've seen a massive change, especially in real estate. Back in 1992 my parents bought a nice house that cost 3x my father's yearly gross income(which was average). Now their house would sell for 500K, and there is no way that the average income is $160K+

It seems like the balance needed in life has gotten harder to achieve. Working, supporting a family, and having a nice house with a white picket fence, and retiring after 45 years in the same job you got coming out of highschool is way harder than it was.

The wife and I plan to retire very early, but it is only possible with some really dedicated planning. Smart investments, hard work, renting instead of buying, willingness to move and change careers based on the money...... and here's the big kicker- no kids. Now that's not to say we eat craft dinner under a bare lightbulb playing solitaire- earlier this year we took a 49 day vacation to 6 countries, and we do a couple of shorter trips each year, but we're smart about the rest

Edit: We weren't always smart with money, I could have bounced a $50 check in my mid to late 20s before I got serious about saving and investing.

Spoiler: Kids vs investing

Raising 1 child from 0-17 costs about 230K. So let's say instead of paying that money, you stuff it in a mattress for those 17 years, and when you are 40 you dump it into a diversified&balanced portfolio at age 40 and forget about it. When you check on it in 25 years it will be worth 1.2m and poof you can retire. Now if you start investing sooner, and add to it every year, then that retirement age starts to come down a lot.
Admittedly there's more to it, but I don't want to derail the life expectancy thread too much with my investment stuff (even though you started it! lol)

 

[mucksterme]

People in my family are extremely long-lived....unless something kills them

 

[DeletedUser5800]

Should one not expect to live one's average lifespan? Should one not expect to retire?

Not really... the people making the retirement laws have probably done the most research into life expectancy and they try their best to set the age at just won't make it or will die soon after. The retirement age for your age bracket is usually a pretty good indicator of what you should expect... to die the day before you get there. (and of course this doesn't include variables like getting hit by a train or a bag of meth)

 

[DeletedUser3507]

Soggy hit it dead on life expectancy is retirement age.. If you get to retire you can expect it won't last very long. I pity those that have a retirement age over 70. I had to retire early due to seizures.

 

[DeletedUser5800]

and here's the big kicker- no kids. Now that's not to say we eat craft dinner under a bare lightbulb playing solitaire

I have 3 kids and they eat my craft dinner, flip the light switch until the bulb blows and bend all the damn cards!
<Enter> Why I'm here all the time.

 

[DeletedUser3507]

Ahahahahaha don't blame you at all.....
I had 2, insanity is hereditary, you get it from your kids....

 

[DeletedUser5800]

Ahahahahaha don't blame you at all.....

I guess I could be watching Pac-Mans Christmas for the 14th time but it turns out only the first 13 are more entertaining than the Elvenar forums.

 

[DeletedUser3507]

Awh it get entertaining here ,all you have to do is stir the pot,

 

[DeletedUser11886]

Not really... the people making the retirement laws

Not sure about other places, but we don't have a lot of laws that specify when we can retire. What we do have is government income subsidies that kick in at various ages and/or provide bonuses and penalties for working more or less than the established date. Most laws regarding pensions just establish a minimum set of protections for how employers can handle them. Things like minimum funding commitments, guarantees, acceptable investments, and what happens if I get divorced before I retire. There is nothing in any law here that tells me anything about what age I can retire at.

 

[DeletedUser5800]

Not sure about other places, but we don't have a lot of laws that specify when we can retire. What we do have is government income subsidies that kick in at various ages and/or provide bonuses and penalties for working more or less than the established date

Yeah that! I might have phrased it horribly but what I meant is if you look at the age set for max. SS benefits for your group you can then figure they have done enough research to bet you die right before or after you get there absent extreme variables.

 

[DeletedUser11886]

Yeah that! I might have phrased it horribly but what I meant is if you look at the age set for max. SS benefits for your group you can then figure they have done enough research to bet you die right before or after you get there absent extreme variables.

SS is an insurance program, not a pension. It's supposed to provide a safety net to keep us out of abject poverty if we live longer than average. It isn't supposed to fund a fun retirement for anyone.

 

[DeletedUser5800]

a safety net to keep us out of abject poverty if we live longer than average

Yes, which is why they have done the most research on life expectancy (or at least read and considered the most research). I was never talking about pensions, just life expectancy.
So maybe what I should have said first is, 'Go by the age assigned to your SS grouping for max befits and safely assume your life expectancy isn't much longer than that as that is the assumption they make based on more data than anyone else collects.'

 

[DeletedUser12423]

I also find myself questioning the very sources which provide such information.

Yes, I felt I had to quote myself. Sorry, haha

If you get to retire you can expect it won't last very long. I pity those that have a retirement age over 70. I had to retire early due to seizures.

Sorry to hear, my friend. My mum had grand mal epileptic seizures (spelling?), so I learned how to help her at an early age, especially with her often biting her tongue. They are very serious, and you just reminded me to pray a little longer tonight. Thank you. And yes, I won't be able to retire until 75.

the people making the retirement laws have probably done the most research into life expectancy and they try their best to set the age at just won't make it or will die soon after.

Draco, I think you are thinking more of what I was thinking. And what was bothering me when I asked people, and started this poll. Are the census even legit? But, whether or not they are, I guess there is nothing we can do about it. Except live life the best we can, for as long as we can. But there were some real, real good points, opinions, and suggestions here. I think it's also a good time to rethink my personal investments. The example Sog gave I think was most helpful. Thank you all for participating in the life expectancy poll, I know it wasn't as light as my usual threads/posts. And thank you for your time / feedback!

Your friend,
-Ironman Rob