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Best Chests - Event Strategy calculators

  • Thread starter Deleted User - 3932582
  • Start date

Deleted User - 3932582

Guest
It is now also the best chest for dailies as it is still 30% chance of hitting it, except it will now cost only 83. I fully expect it to be nerfed ASAP ;)
...And I was not disappointed in my forecast. They adjusted chests "to better spread the chances of winning Daily Prizes etc". I have updated strategy calculators. Here are the changes in results:

- Grand Prizes: not impacted (no changes in chest costs and GP tokens payouts)
- KP+AWKP: up by 5% (and now back on par with the previous event for the same amount of event currency)
- Daily Prizes: down by 25% (!) - this is also way below the previous event

So let me translate "better spread the chances of winning Daily Prizes" from Inno-speak to English: "we're going to nerf Daily Rewards". Waiting to hear that this is not technically a nerf, because... reasons? Probably not to overwhelm us with all those fabulous rewards. /s

Inno just keeps on giving.
 

Enevhar Aldarion

Oh Wise One
...And I was not disappointed in my forecast. They adjusted chests "to better spread the chances of winning Daily Prizes etc". I have updated strategy calculators. Here are the changes in results:

- Grand Prizes: not impacted (no changes in chest costs and GP tokens payouts)
- KP+AWKP: up by 5% (and now back on par with the previous event for the same amount of event currency)
- Daily Prizes: down by 25% (!) - this is also way below the previous event

So let me translate "better spread the chances of winning Daily Prizes" from Inno-speak to English: "we're going to nerf Daily Rewards". Waiting to hear that this is not technically a nerf, because... reasons? Probably not to overwhelm us with all those fabulous rewards. /s

Inno just keeps on giving.

Depends on which chests/beacons you are collecting. The percent chance in the smaller ones was increased and those are the ones I have been collecting the most. Partly because the 92-cost one does not show up much for me and partly because the 83-cost one sucks. Also, the 40-cost and up look like they give 2 points towards the grand prize, when in previous events, to get at least 2 points, you had to open the 53-cost and up chests.

And as usual with the weird Inno RNG, I always seem to be more likely to get a daily prize from a chest with a 5% chance than I am from one with a much higher chance.
 

Ashrem

Oh Wise One
Depends on which chests/beacons you are collecting.
In general, MinMax doesn't fool around when it comes the odds of winning something. If he uses the words "down by 25%" he means that if that's what you value the most, you're going to get 25% fewer. If your goal is not daily prizes, then the exact chance of getting daily prizes is not calculable without knowing what you what to prioritize.
 

Pheryll

Set Designer
Just letting people know that there is one new factor that can increase probabilities of smaller chests. The game will no longer give you the option of taking a chest that would go beyond the grand prize milestone you are working on. Thus if your progress is 19/20 of the way to the next grand prize you will only be given the option of chests that generate 1 progress toward the grand prize.
 

Deleted User - 3932582

Guest
Just letting people know that there is one new factor that can increase probabilities of smaller chests. The game will no longer give you the option of taking a chest that would go beyond the grand prize milestone you are working on. Thus if your progress is 19/20 of the way to the next grand prize you will only be given the option of chests that generate 1 progress toward the grand prize.
That's true, and it is not accounted for in my calculators. It is unlikely I will implement it as impact is fairly small.

Having said that, I have no idea why this change was implemented. Someone spent some time and energy to develop this "feature", and I have absolutely no clue why. I could understand it if you'd lose the tokens after large chest in 19/20 scenario, but it always did overflow into the next GP. So the meaning of this feature eludes me.
 

Enevhar Aldarion

Oh Wise One
That's true, and it is not accounted for in my calculators. It is unlikely I will implement it as impact is fairly small.

Having said that, I have no idea why this change was implemented. Someone spent some time and energy to develop this "feature", and I have absolutely no clue why. I could understand it if you'd lose the tokens after large chest in 19/20 scenario, but it always did overflow into the next GP. So the meaning of this feature eludes me.

I think it is for the rare case, when on the final day, a player only needs one point for the grand prize, but they have the three highest cost chests to open. This way, if you are at 19 of 20 on the final day, you are guaranteed to need less than 40 to open one more beacon and get that grand prize.
 

Deleted User - 3932582

Guest
I think it is for the rare case, when on the final day, a player only needs one point for the grand prize, but they have the three highest cost chests to open. This way, if you are at 19 of 20 on the final day, you are guaranteed to need less than 40 to open one more beacon and get that grand prize.
Possible. So they've spent some time and effort on fixing the edge case where simultaneously:

- you're at the last few hours of the 20+ days event
- you're at 19/20 tokens
- you're short <40 points out of 5-6 thousands total
- more likely than not you're 1 token away from something like random runes or the coin/supply instant GP

#priorities

As well as with the usual heavy-handed approach they swat a fly with an auto-cannon. So to "fix" the case that most people won't experience, they mess up chest selection on all previous GP rotations. And if larger chests are better for what you want to get - well, you have just been screwed. Marginally, but still - I expect this case to be much more prevalent than the one fixed.
 

Deleted User - 3932582

Guest
I have updated the calculators for the latest Autumn Zodiac event (September 2020). The chest setup again is quite different this time around, a lot of reshuffling happened there. It seems that the beacon mechanics of the last event (small/medium/large, no overflow over 20) is replaced with the usual random chest mechanics that has been with us for quite a while.

Given the same amount of event currency as in the previous event (~6K), and using the best chest strategies for each, you can expect to get:

- significantly fewer grand prizes (12 vs 15)
- fewer daily prizes (15 vs 18)
- more KPs+AWKPs (610 vs 535)

We don't know what the totals of event currency will be for this event, so if that would be significantly different from the previous event then the numbers would obviously look different. Or it could be our regularly scheduled GP/DP nerf.

Just for kicks, I went back and compared with 2019 Zodiac event on the same 6K currency (2020 vs 2019):
- GP: 12 vs 14
- DP: 15 vs 20+
- KP+AWKP: 610 vs 660

Yep, those were the days ;) Obviously, you could also do quite a bit better than 6K in the 2019 event...
 
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Deleted User - 3932582

Guest
I have updated the calculators for the latest Elvenarian Carnival event (February 2021). They have adjusted costs and rewards a little bit, comparing to the previous chest event (Autumn Zodiac 2020). One more significant change is that in 3 of the chests there are new rewards - orcs, regular and sentient goods to be exact. The amounts are chapter-specific. As I don't think anyone would be targeting these rewards, I decided to ignore these in the calculations as to not clutter the UI with fairly useless stuff.

Given the same amount of event currency as in the previous event (~6K), and using the best chest strategies for each, you can expect to get:

- a bit more of the grand prizes (13.5 vs 12)
- a bit more of the daily prizes (17 vs 15.5)
- fewer KPs+AWKPs (564 vs 610)

We don't know what the totals of event currency will be for this event, so if that would be significantly different from the previous event then the numbers would obviously look different.

I went back and compared with the 2020 Carnival event on the same 6K currency (2021 vs 2020):
- GP: 13.5 vs 14
- DP: 17 vs 22+
- KP+AWKP: 564 vs 531

Overall, this doesn't look too bad, quite comparable with the previous chest event, and the last year's Carnival. Except for the daily prizes vs 2020, but those numbers have been going down for quite a while, and there is a slight bump comparing to 2020 Zodiac event.
 

Ibison

Member
I am wondering what you mean by best chest strategy. When it comes to getting flags and the nine upgrades you need, all chests are close in costs when a normal distribution curve is considered. Daily prizes I haven't looked at, but guess I could at them too.
 

CrazyWizard

Oh Wise One
I am wondering what you mean by best chest strategy. When it comes to getting flags and the nine upgrades you need, all chests are close in costs when a normal distribution curve is considered. Daily prizes I haven't looked at, but guess I could at them too.

close? when you open many chest, even a small difference might mean the difference between getting the grand prize or not

example:
chest 25 -> 1 flag --> cost per flag 25
chest 32 -> 1 flag --> cpf 22 (100 candies 10% = -10 on average)
chest 33 -> 1 flag --> cpf 33

the difference between chest 32 and 33 is 33%.
This means you get 33% more flags. this is the difference between getting 13 grand prizes (7 artefacts) or 8 grand prizes (4 artefacts)

also 22 cpf vs 25 cpf is a 12% difference.
 

Dew Spinner

Well-Known Member
close? when you open many chest, even a small difference might mean the difference between getting the grand prize or not

example:
chest 25 -> 1 flag --> cost per flag 25
chest 32 -> 1 flag --> cpf 22 (100 candies 10% = -10 on average)
chest 33 -> 1 flag --> cpf 33

the difference between chest 32 and 33 is 33%.
This means you get 33% more flags. this is the difference between getting 13 grand prizes (7 artefacts) or 8 grand prizes (4 artefacts)

also 22 cpf vs 25 cpf is a 12% difference.
As you have said before, it would take A LOT of attempts for the RNG smooth out to an average of 10%, more attempts than you will get in this event. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush!
 
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samidodamage

Buddy Fan Club member
best chest strategy
Have you used the calculator MinMax provides? I like it because you can input the actual number of event currency you have and prioritize whatever you personally find to be the most beneficial of the prizes offered. There was an event in the past (can't remember which one it was) where I was not interested in the grand prize or any of the daily building prizes and decided to just go for as much kp as I could get (it was before troop instants were a thing). Sure, I could have looked over each chest and taken a pretty good guess at which ones were best, but the calculator was so easy-peasy and it did all that for me. Then, I just opened chests on the days the daily prize was some form of kp. It probably makes it easier that I play primarily on browser: I open 2 browser windows with the game on one and the calculator results on the other. I size the windows so they fit side-by-side on the screen and it's really easy to pick chests. I imagine it wouldn't be so convenient if I was a mobile only player though.
 

LutherTheHairy

Active Member
@MinMax Gamer

The currency costs your calculator lists in results for the 2021 Carnival event are inconsistent with the costs posted on Elvengems which in turn is inconsistent with the chests presented to me on my game screen. What are the correct costs per color? Is Inno shuffling chest costs and colors for different players (and possibly prize percentages too?)

Screen Shot 2021-02-10 at 7.11.31 AM.png
Screen Shot 2021-02-10 at 7.53.16 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-02-10 at 7.13.58 AM.png
 

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Deleted User - 3932582

Guest
@MinMax Gamer

The currency costs your calculator lists in results for the 2021 Carnival event are inconsistent with the costs posted on Elvengems which in turn is inconsistent with the chests presented to me on my game screen. What are the correct costs per color? Is Inno shuffling chest costs and colors for different players (and possibly prize percentages too?)
Ha, that's a good one. I thought you're wrong, but you're indeed correct. It seems that someone at IG messed up chest skins - the pictures at ElvenGems are correct, meaning that we have 2 chests that are exactly the same Green color (46 and 54), and we also have 2 chests that are exactly the same Sea Green color (71 and 118). At the same time, we don't have our usual Purple and Red colors. Chest colors have been the same for years, and this is purely cosmetic. As such, I am not going to change any color assignments as I assume this to be a bug.

Regardless, you should always looks at the chest cost. The only reason the colors are even there is because back in a day we used to have cases where different chests had the same cost. This hasn't been the case for a while. If you use costs instead of colors, all calculations are still valid.
 

Deleted User - 3932582

Guest
I have updated the calculators for the latest Phoenix event (March 2021). There are some minor chest changes comparing to the previous event.

Given the same amount of event currency as in the previous event (~6K), and using the best chest strategies for each, you can expect to get:

- a bit less of the grand prizes (12.8 vs 13.4)
- a bit less of the daily prizes (16.6 vs 16.9)
- quite a bit less of KPs+AWKPs (471 vs 564)

We don't know what the totals of event currency will be for this event, so if that would be significantly different from the previous event then the numbers would obviously look different.

I went back and compared with the 2020 Phoenix event on the same 6K currency (2021 vs 2020):
- GP: 12.8 vs 14.1
- DP: 16.6 vs 23.5
- KP+AWKP: 471 vs 537

And so the nickel and diming continues. Every category is worse vs the previous event, and vs a year ago. So who wouldn't want to stick around and play that game? /s
 
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