Brainstorming about Tournaments

[DeletedUser61]

Cost/Min	Where	Battles	Type	Troops	Squads	Weight	Strength	Pool
75	Marble	2	Orc	8	1	1	8	8
8	Ring 1	2	Orc	3	3	1	9	9
9.38	Scout 1	4	Orc	2	4	1	8	8
170	Steel	2	Knight	3	1	4	12	12
11	Ring 2	1	Knight	1	2	4	8	16
15.45	Scout 2	many	Bandit	2	4	1	8	.
.	.	3	Knight	1	1	4	4	14
.	.	many	Bandit	2	5	1	10	.
.	.	2	Knight	1	1	4	4	11
.	.	many	Bandit	1	7	1	7	.
920	Silk	2	Thief	8	2	1	16	24
21	Ring 3	many	Archer	8	1	1	8	.
43.81	Scout 3	2	Thief	21	1	1	21	21
.	.	1	Thief	6	3	1	18	24
.	.	many	Archer	6	1	1	6	.
.	.	3	Thief	11	2	1	22	22
990	Elixir	2	Necromancer	2	1	4	8	14
14	Ring 3	many	Swamp Monster	1	1	6	6	.
70.71	Scout 4	1	Steinling	5	1	4	20	20
.	.	2	Necromancer	5	1	4	20	20
.	.	1	Necromancer	2	1	4	8	30
.	.	many	Swamp Monster	1	1	6	6	.
.	.	many	Steinling	2	2	4	16	.
.	.	1	Steinling	2	2	4	16	16
.	.	1	Steinling	1	2	4	8	18
.	.	.	Swamp Monster	1	1	6	6	.
.	.	.	Necromancer	1	1	4	4	.
390	Crystal	2	Orc	9	2	1	18	18
17	Ring 1	3	Orc	4	5	1	20	20
22.94	Scout 5	2	Orc	17	1	1	17	17
.	.	1	Orc	6	3	1	18	18
490	Magic Dust	1	Archer	6	5	1	30	30
19	Ring 2	1	Necromancer	3	1	4	12	25
25.79	Scout 6	many	Archer	13	1	1	13	.
.	.	1	Archer	7	3	1	21	25
.	.	many	Necromancer	1	1	4	4	.
.	.	1	Necromancer	1	3	4	12	19
.	.	many	Archer	7	1	1	7	.
.	.	1	Archer	7	3	1	21	21
.	.	2	Archer	25	1	1	25	25
.	.	1	Necromancer	6	1	4	24	24

 

[DeletedUser61]

Cost/Min	Where	Battles	Type	Troops	Squads	Weight	Strength	Pool
1,300	Marble	1	Steinling	4	4	4	64	81
32	Ring 3	many	Orc	17	1	1	17	.
40.63	Scout 7	3	Steinling	8	1	4	32	32
.	.	2	Steinling	2	2	4	16	36
.	.	many	Orc	10	2	1	20	.
.	.	2	Steinling	3	1	4	12	36
.	.	many	Orc	12	2	1	24	.
6,300	Scrolls	1	Thief	13	3	1	39	52
45	Ring 4	many	War Dog	13	1	1	13	.
140.00	Scout 8	2	Bandit	13	3	1	39	52
.	.	many	Thief	13	1	1	13	.
.	.	1	War Dog	45	1	1	45	45
.	.	1	War Dog	17	2	1	34	51
.	.	many	Bandit	17	1	1	17	.
.	.	1	Bandit	45	1	1	45	45
.	.	1	Thief	45	1	1	45	45

 

[DeletedUser]

I don't remember the last time I saw a single defender province, but that's not statistical. I have two provinces open in Ring 10, both with two defenders. For some time, this has been the standard.

Single defender provinces are Ring 1, and perhaps only Ring 1 bobbi. At least all Ring 1 provinces on the new world were single defenders for me. Funny, how quickly I forgot that after only starting my 2nd city a few weeks ago and my 1st a few months ago.

It would be nice of we had Battle Reports like in TW2 to be able to go back and looks at wins/losses and see what worked and what didn't. I do miss that feature. I don't miss the game. but it has UI features and other features that Inno put into them that could be very useful in this "We'll-call-it-a-builder-game-but-it's-really-a'PvE-War" game. *SMH* If they want it to be another mixed PvE/PvP game, they really should just take it down and re-release it as "Humans Vs. Elves. Vs. Everything Else" and call it what it is and is becoming.

 

[DeletedUser61]

Over in the Beta forum they've just announced the release of Version 1.0, and it does NOT include Provincial Tournaments nor a new Guest Race.

• The only new features are an upgradeable Magic Academy and a "provinces acquired" gate on each of the Advanced Scouting technologies.
• I'm guessing that we'll see our next guest race in a month or so.
• I'm guessing that a month after that we'll see Provincial Tournaments.

I remain concerned that we don't have enough ways to obtain relics nor runes, but at least a new Guest Race will give us somewhere to put our Knowledge Points while the developers continue to work on the Provincial Tournaments.

 

[DeletedUser627]

View attachment 506

Please refrain from alarmist posts regarding the details of items that have just barely been released in Beta.

Very much to the point, we do want to encourage folks to participate in the Beta if they ARE interested in what might be coming over the hill, we could use more good testers, but there's no need to disturb folks who are not interested in the details of the Beta environment.

The title of this thread - speculating about details of items that haven't yet even been released in Beta - qualifies as alarming. If some players can't mention current Beta features, why should you engage in wild speculations that have the appearance of foreknowledge?

 

[DeletedUser61]

The point of this thread is that I'm chasing down the behavior of OUR current map, and sharing some of my motivations, techniques, and observations.

The December TV promo, as stated, is our only source of information, and it's mostly about timing, rather than technical content. Regardless of which way the developers jump, we'll be better off if we understand more about how the map works.

My foreknowledge is based on 20 years of gaming, with a preference for City Builders, and 40 years of looking at various business, manufacturing, and delivery systems to figure out whether, or not, a system is stable and efficient.

Just as an example, I've been worried about vacancies for several months. Starting in Beta even before the game even went into production. See https://beta.forum.elvenar.com/index.php?threads/climbing-the-penrose-stairs.2312/. The mods even picked up some of the ideas, with my permission, and started a similar discussion here in the US forum. Maps are not a new thing for me.

Do the developers and programmers ever read my stuff? I hope so, it's written in their language and it's respectful of their capabilities. It makes the game far more interesting when you look at what it COULD be.

 

[DeletedUser627]

Let's see how good we are at reading tea leaves. Other than the information in the December InnoGames YouTube promo we don't know anything at all about the Provincial Tournaments, but we can still guess and speculate.

Here's what I'm guessing

• There will be an Arena Building, one per city, that's very much like an Ancient Wonder.
  • The benefit to the owner will be reduced scouting costs, level by level
  • The benefit to the participants will be Tournament Points and map related Spells, reduced scouting times in particular
• You'll get Tournament Points by REacquiring discovered provinces, every week anew, using either goods or troops
  • The number of Tournament Points will depend on the sector's ring distance from your city, and thereby its difficulty
  • There won't be any secondary scouting costs, BUT the acquisition costs/combat difficulty will be identical with what we've seen during the initial discovery acquisition.
  • You'll still get Relics and Rune Shards
  • Tournament Points will be ephemeral. The tournament sectors AND your accumulated tournament points will be RESET once per week. In other words, you'll need to complete your tournament sectors AND contribute the consequent points to an ARENA of your choosing, including your own Arena, or else you'll lose the points during the reset.
  • The Arena itself isn't effected by the reset. Contributed points are safe.

Based on the determinations of our own moderators - where stating factual information is considered "alarmist" - it's not possible to disqualify this rank speculation from also being "alarmist". If the notion of having to pay for an Academy upgrade might alarm certain players, the notion that Relics and Rune Shards will be awarded via competition is even more alarming.

 

[DeletedUser61]

stating factual information is considered "alarmist"

You can use facts in many different ways. If you're using them to stir the pot, that's alarmist. The facts themselves are neutral.

I'm about three beats behind the music, but I finally realized that the number I was trying to back into is ALREADY listed. I've circled it in the above graphic. In this case, multiplying 13*5=65, and if we were to look at the other encounters in the same sector, we'd probably see a 53*1 or thereabouts.

There are far too many prime numbers in distribution of the enemy troops for it to be any sort of simple integer division, so I'll need a lot more data before I'm comfortable with the table driven sizing of the Enemy Troops.

What I'm after, ultimately, is the relationship between the Cost of Scouting a sector and the disposition of the Enemy Troops.

• Does scouting LOCK the size of the Enemy Troops? If so, then there's an incentive for keeping a scout going at all times, the more expensive the better.
• Does the disposition of the Enemy Troops depend ONLY on ring distance? If so, you can fudge your costs by using an umbrella shaped scouting pattern.
• Is a circular exploration pattern the MOST expensive approach??

 

[DeletedUser43]

The facts themselves are neutral.

Preach

 

[DeletedUser61]

This experiment demonstrates that the scouting sequence has very little (perhaps no) effect on scouting costs As illustrated on the following map, we intentionally preserved a snake of UNscouted sectors, which enabled us to nicely observe the behavior of 8 different rings as we moved around the map.

This experiment was conducted BEFORE the Release 1.0 gating of the Advanced Scouting technology, so ALL of the numbers were observed with the Chapter II Advanced Scouting in effect. The costs are therefore 100% -> 75%, as you can observe in the following data table, where the Scouting Cost for the first Sectir is 75 coins, rather than 100 coins.

The storage capacity of the level 7 Main Hall is 680K coins, so there's a hard cap that prevents us from scouting Ring 9. The 980K scouting cost is more than the number of Coins that we can store.

As you can see on the following map, we intentionally bounced around quite a bit, and AVOIDED using a circular blob, quite the contrary. We headed for Ring 8 quite rapidly and then looped back to the center of the map, To our satisfaction, the scouting costs remained orderly.

For the next phase of our experiment we're going to continue to the right, but twice as fast. This time we'll scout the snake itself, and leave the K sectors unscouted. Once we've scouted the snake then we'll fill in below, and then above the unscouted sectors.

 

[DeletedUser61]

The costs shown in the above map are associated with the final Scout #30. We're not yet ready to make any firm statements, but it's apparent from the data that the SIZE of the defensive armies are closely related to the scouting costs for that same sector.

To keep our test clean we acquired each sector immediately after we scouted it, but we suspect that the size of the defensive company will be AS THOUGH you had most recently scouted that same sector, regardless of how long it actually took you to get around to acquiring the sector. We'll eventually run the necessary experiments if the data doesn't fall in our lap.

When you're setting up EACH battle, as we illustrated earlier in this thread, the defender's squad size is indicated. If there's a single squad then we used the size number directly, otherwise we selected the battle that had the FEWEST squads, and recorded Size*Squads. Note that the more squad there are in a battle, the HIGHER the total number of units will be.

We'll be doing some more analysis on the following data, but the patterns are already pretty obvious. When you're eyeballing the numbers, recognize that the system only displays TWO significant digits. For numbers above 100,000, you're only going to see a change every 10,000 coins. We suspect that the displayed number are simply rounded, so 210K means "anywhere between 209,501 and 210,500 inclusive."

Scout	Ring	Cost	Size	Relic	Ring 1	Ring 2	Ring 3	Ring 4	Ring 5	Ring 6	Ring 7	Ring 8

[tr1][td2] 0 [/td2][td2] 0 [/td2][td2] 0 [/td2][td2] ? [/td2][td] Base [/td][td2] 75 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 1 [/td2][td2] 1 [/td2][td2] 75 [/td2][td2] 8 [/td2][td] Marble [/td][td2] 150 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 2 [/td2][td2] 2 [/td2][td2] 170 [/td2][td2] 8 [/td2][td] Steel [/td][td2] 230 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 3 [/td2][td2] 4 [/td2][td2] 920 [/td2][td2] 21 [/td2][td] Silk [/td][td2] 300 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 4 [/td2][td2] 4 [/td2][td2] 990 [/td2][td2] 21 [/td2][td] Elixir [/td][td2] 310 [/td2][td2] 400 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 5 [/td2][td2] 1 [/td2][td2] 390 [/td2][td2] 17 [/td2][td] Crystal [/td][td2] 470 [/td2][td2] 490 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 6 [/td2][td2] 2 [/td2][td2] 490 [/td2][td2] 25 [/td2][td] MagicD [/td][td2] 570 [/td2][td2] 590 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 7 [/td2][td2] 3 [/td2][td2] 1,300 [/td2][td2] 33 [/td2][td] Marble [/td][td2] 670 [/td2][td2] 690 [/td2][td2] 1,400 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 8 [/td2][td2] 4 [/td2][td2] 6,300 [/td2][td2] 45 [/td2][td] Scrolls [/td][td2] 780 [/td2][td2] 800 [/td2][td2] 1,500 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 9 [/td2][td2] 4 [/td2][td2] 6,500 [/td2][td2] 50 [/td2][td] Planks [/td][td2] 910 [/td2][td2] 930 [/td2][td2] 1,600 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 10 [/td2][td2] 4 [/td2][td2] 6,600 [/td2][td2] 54 [/td2][td] Elixir [/td][td2] 1,000 [/td2][td2] 1,100 [/td2][td2] 1,700 [/td2][td2] 6,700 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 11 [/td2][td2] 5 [/td2][td2] 26,000 [/td2][td2] 70 [/td2][td] Gems [/td][td2] 1,200 [/td2][td2] 1,200 [/td2][td2] 1,900 [/td2][td2] 6,900 [/td2][td2] 27,000 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 12 [/td2][td2] 6 [/td2][td2] 82,000 [/td2][td2] 87 [/td2][td] Steel [/td][td2] 1,400 [/td2][td2] 1,400 [/td2][td2] 2,100 [/td2][td2] 7,100 [/td2][td2] 27,000 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 13 [/td2][td2] 5 [/td2][td2] 27,000 [/td2][td2] 78 [/td2][td] MagicD [/td][td2] 1,600 [/td2][td2] 1,600 [/td2][td2] 2,300 [/td2][td2] 7,300 [/td2][td2] 27,000 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 14 [/td2][td2] 6 [/td2][td2] 82,000 [/td2][td2] 99 [/td2][td] Marble [/td][td2] 1,800 [/td2][td2] 1,800 [/td2][td2] 2,500 [/td2][td2] 7,500 [/td2][td2] 27,000 [/td2][td2] 83,000 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 15 [/td2][td2] 7 [/td2][td2] 210,000 [/td2][td2] 120 [/td2][td] Silk [/td][td2] 2,100 [/td2][td2] 2,100 [/td2][td2] 2,700 [/td2][td2] 7,700 [/td2][td2] 27,000 [/td2][td2] 83,000 [/td2][td2] 210,000 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 16 [/td2][td2] 7 [/td2][td2] 210,000 [/td2][td2] 128 [/td2][td] Scrolls [/td][td2] 2,300 [/td2][td2] 2,400 [/td2][td2] 3,000 [/td2][td2] 8,000 [/td2][td2] 28,000 [/td2][td2] 83,000 [/td2][td2] 210,000 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 17 [/td2][td2] 8 [/td2][td2] 470,000 [/td2][td2] 153 [/td2][td] Gems [/td][td2] 2,600 [/td2][td2] 2,700 [/td2][td2] 3,300 [/td2][td2] 8,300 [/td2][td2] 28,000 [/td2][td2] 83,000 [/td2][td2] 210,000 [/td2][td2] 470,000 [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 18 [/td2][td2] 8 [/td2][td2] 470,000 [/td2][td2] 161 [/td2][td] Elixir [/td][td2] 3,000 [/td2][td2] 3,000 [/td2][td2] 3,700 [/td2][td2] 8,700 [/td2][td2] 28,000 [/td2][td2] 84,000 [/td2][td2] 210,000 [/td2][td2] 470,000 [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 19 [/td2][td2] 7 [/td2][td2] 210,000 [/td2][td2] 149 [/td2][td] Silk [/td][td2] 3,400 [/td2][td2] 3,400 [/td2][td2] 4,100 [/td2][td2] 9,000 [/td2][td2] 29,000 [/td2][td2] 84,000 [/td2][td2] 210,000 [/td2][td2] 470,000 [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 20 [/td2][td2] 6 [/td2][td2] 84,000 [/td2][td2] 144 [/td2][td] Marble [/td][td2] 3,800 [/td2][td2] 3,800 [/td2][td2] 4,500 [/td2][td2] 9,500 [/td2][td2] 29,000 [/td2][td2] 85,000 [/td2][td2] 210,000 [/td2][td2] 470,000 [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 21 [/td2][td2] 6 [/td2][td2] 85,000 [/td2][td2] 144 [/td2][td] Gems [/td][td2] 4,200 [/td2][td2] 4,200 [/td2][td2] 4,900 [/td2][td2] 9,900 [/td2][td2] 30,000 [/td2][td2] 85,000 [/td2][td2] 210,000 [/td2][td2] 470,000 [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 22 [/td2][td2] 5 [/td2][td2] 30,000 [/td2][td2] 128 [/td2][td] MagicD [/td][td2] 4,800 [/td2][td2] 4,800 [/td2][td2] 5,400 [/td2][td2] 10,000 [/td2][td2] 30,000 [/td2][td2] 86,000 [/td2][td2] 210,000 [/td2][td2] 470,000 [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 23 [/td2][td2] 4 [/td2][td2] 10,000 [/td2][td2] 111 [/td2][td] Crystal [/td][td2] 5,300 [/td2][td2] 5,300 [/td2][td2] 6,000 [/td2][td2] 11,000 [/td2][td2] 31,000 [/td2][td2] 86,000 [/td2][td2] 210,000 [/td2][td2] 470,000 [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 24 [/td2][td2] 8 [/td2][td2] 31,000 [/td2][td2] 140 [/td2][td] Marble [/td][td2] 5,900 [/td2][td2] 5,900 [/td2][td2] 6,600 [/td2][td2] 12,000 [/td2][td2] 31,000 [/td2][td2] 87,000 [/td2][td2] 210,000 [/td2][td2] 470,000 [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 25 [/td2][td2] 4 [/td2][td2] 12,000 [/td2][td2] 120 [/td2][td] Planks [/td][td2] 6,600 [/td2][td2] 6,600 [/td2][td2] 7,300 [/td2][td2] 12,000 [/td2][td2] 32,000 [/td2][td2] 87,000 [/td2][td2] 220,000 [/td2][td2] 470,000 [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 26 [/td2][td2] 3 [/td2][td2] 7,300 [/td2][td2] 99 [/td2][td] Elixir [/td][td2] 7,300 [/td2][td2] 7,300 [/td2][td2] 8,000 [/td2][td2] 13,000 [/td2][td2] 33,000 [/td2][td2] 88,000 [/td2][td2] 220,000 [/td2][td2] 470,000 [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 27 [/td2][td2] 3 [/td2][td2] 8,000 [/td2][td2] 103 [/td2][td] Silk [/td][td2] 8,100 [/td2][td2] 8,100 [/td2][td2] 8,700 [/td2][td2] 14,000 [/td2][td2] 33,000 [/td2][td2] 89,000 [/td2][td2] 220,000 [/td2][td2] 470,000 [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 28 [/td2][td2] 2 [/td2][td2] 8,100 [/td2][td2] 78 [/td2][td] Steel [/td][td2] 8,900 [/td2][td2] 8,900 [/td2][td2] 9,600 [/td2][td2] 15,000 [/td2][td2] 34,000 [/td2][td2] 90,000 [/td2][td2] 220,000 [/td2][td2] 470,000 [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 29 [/td2][td2] 3 [/td2][td2] 9,600 [/td2][td2] 107 [/td2][td] Gems [/td][td2] 9,800 [/td2][td2] 9,800 [/td2][td2] 10,000 [/td2][td2] 15,000 [/td2][td2] 35,000 [/td2][td2] 91,000 [/td2][td2] 220,000 [/td2][td2] 470,000 [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 30 [/td2][td2] 3 [/td2][td2] 10,000 [/td2][td2] 111 [/td2][td] Gems [/td][td2] 11,000 [/td2][td2] 11,000 [/td2][td2] 11,000 [/td2][td2] 16,000 [/td2][td2] 36,000 [/td2][td2] 92,000 [/td2][td2] 220,000 [/td2][td2] 480,000 [/td2][/tr1]

I rather like the additional BBCode table features that XenForo has provided with their most recent update of our forum software. You can review all of the BBCodes by clicking on Help down in the lower right corner of any forum page.

 

[DeletedUser43]

To keep our test clean we acquired each sector immediately after we scouted it

Who is the other person/s you are doing this with? Who is the "we"?

 

[DeletedUser61]

 

[DeletedUser61]

The brown line is the observed data that I've collected from my snake, while the blue line is the best least squares fit. Significantly, the exponential and geometric progressions yield identical results. Exponential, using Scout^1.187 Geometric, using Previous Cost*1.187 As you can see, both models start too slowly, and then accelerate much too quicklyk but we can use either approach, and the geometric model is more closely related to what we're dealing with on the world map.

The nature of a hexagonal spiral is that each successive ring has 6 additional sectors because, in effect, we're enlarging each ring by filling in the missing corner sectors. On our world map every third row is a city row and, as a consequence, every third ring will get 6 new cities but no new relic sectors. This leads to the strong pattern, for relics per ring, that we mentioned at the start of this thread, but it's an emergent pattern that's probably too elaborate for a computer algorithm.

• 00 06 06
• 12 18 18
• 24 30 30
• 36 42 42
• 48 54 54

The more likely breakpoints are the required sectors that gate the Advanced Scouting technology, which provides the developers with more flexibility.

Ring	Sectors	Total	Gating

[tr1][td2] 0 [/td2][td2] 0 [/td2][td2] 0 [/td2][td] ~ [/td][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 1 [/td2][td2] 6 [/td2][td2] 6 [/td2][td] ~ [/td][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 2 [/td2][td2] 6 [/td2][td2] 12 [/td2][td] AS II requires 10 sectors [/td][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 3 [/td2][td2] 12 [/td2][td2] 24 [/td2][td] ~ [/td][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 4 [/td2][td2] 18 [/td2][td2] 42 [/td2][td] AS III requires 30 sectors [/td][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 5 [/td2][td2] 18 [/td2][td2] 60 [/td2][td] AS IV requires 50 sectors [/td][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 6 [/td2][td2] 24 [/td2][td2] 84 [/td2][td] AS V requires 70 sectors [/td][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 7 [/td2][td2] 30 [/td2][td2] 114 [/td2][td] AS VI requires 100 sectors [/td][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 8 [/td2][td2] 30 [/td2][td2] 144 [/td2][td] AS VII requires 130 sectors [/td][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 9 [/td2][td2] 36 [/td2][td2] 180 [/td2][td] ? [/td][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 10 [/td2][td2] 42 [/td2][td2] 222 [/td2][td] ? [/td][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 11 [/td2][td2] 42 [/td2][td2] 264 [/td2][td] ? [/td][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 12 [/td2][td2] 48 [/td2][td2] 312 [/td2][td] ? [/td][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 13 [/td2][td2] 54 [/td2][td2] 366 [/td2][td] ? [/td][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 14 [/td2][td2] 54 [/td2][td2] 420 [/td2][td] ? [/td][/tr1]

I'll need more data to prove it, but I'm guessing that the Scouting Costs for each ring will end up being a Geometric progression, and that the geometric ratio (Previous * Ratio = Current) will be determined by the number of relic sectors required for each of the Advanced Scouting gates. That will yield the flatted curve that we're after, but we simply don't have enough data, as yet, to detect the knee for each of the gates. The program only presents 2 significant digits, and that doesn't help much either. We'll get there.

As you have probably realized by now, we're chasing a very complex algorithm that defines

• Scouting costs
• Scouting times (or Diamonds)
• Negotiation costs
• The Size of the defending armies

If the algorithm ends up being sensible and bug free, I'll be both amazed and disappointed.

If you've read this far, you may also be interested in the gory details of population growth models, which is what we're dealing with. Several excellent PowerPoint presentations are available at http://search.oregonstate.edu/index.php?q=population+growth

 

[DeletedUser61]

The data that we've collected is somewhere between linear and exponential, with a smooth 2nd order curve, which suggests a quadratic regression.

If we use the Excel LINEST funcion techniques that are discussed at http://stackoverflow.com/questions/10857252/quadratic-and-cubic-regression-in-excel we can derive the following coefficients for our observed data.

Distance	a*x^2	+ b*x	+ c

[tr1][td2] Ring 1 [/td2][td2] 15.15677 [/td2][td2] -160.184 [/td2][td2] 716.88 [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] Ring 2 [/td2][td2] 17.57488 [/td2][td2] -258.038 [/td2][td2] 1,599.02 [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] Ring 3 [/td2][td2] 17.79872 [/td2][td2] -285.194 [/td2][td2] 2,682.12 [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] Ring 4 [/td2][td2] 20.11501 [/td2][td2] -379.766 [/td2][td2] 8,585.85 [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] Ring 5 [/td2][td2] 21.87286 [/td2][td2] -465.345 [/td2][td2] 29,266.92 [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] Ring 6 [/td2][td2] 28.37977 [/td2][td2] -741.744 [/td2][td2] 87,601.39 [/td2][/tr2]

Plotting the data illustrates that we've obtained an excellent fit.

As we indicated earlier, our data was obtained using Advanced Scouting Chapter II (before the mandatory chests), so the observed values are only 75% of the underlying 100% formulaic scouting values, and they are further obscured in that the displayed data only has 2 significant digits. Even so, it appears that we're on the right track.

Now that we understand how the underlying Scouting Cost formula behaves, we'll be able to use as many significant digits as we wish, while we're drilling down to the related

• Scouting Times
• Hurry Up Diamonds
• Encounter Negotiation Costs
• Defensive Troop Size and Squad Distribution
• Plus anything that looks interesting once we've seen the upcoming Provincial Tournaments.

Click on the spoiler to see a sketch of what we have in mind for our next set of experiments

Spoiler: Monotonic

• We'll leave the 12 o'clock radial open (or the 11:55 radial for every third ring where there's a city sector at 12:00) and use the skipped sectors to monitor the current scouting costs for each ring.
  
• We'll (almost) fill the rings in sequence, innermost to outermost, proceeding clockwise for the most part.
• We'll acquire each scouted sector before we scout another sector.
  • This eliminates the need for a second count of acquired sectors.
  • Activates the scouting cost tooltips for the next ring of sectors.
  • Helps a lot with keeping things neat and tidyish.
• We'll activate each Advanced Scouting technology at the earliest opportunity, as soon as we can unlock the chest, so that we'll have the advantage of the 25% reductions in scouting costs/times and encounter difficulties.

 

[DeletedUser61]

Here are the 75% formulaic values, regressed from the displayed numbers, which allows us to ignore the roundoff error that's introduced by the display of only 2 significant digits.

You can compare these values with the observed values that were provided in an earlier post in this thread.

Scout	Fit 1	Fit 2	Fit 3	Fit 4	Fit 5	Fit 6

[tr1][td2] 1 [/td2][td2] 572 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 2 [/td2][td2] 457 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 3 [/td2][td2] 373 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 4 [/td2][td2] 319 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 5 [/td2][td2] 295 [/td2][td2] 748 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 6 [/td2][td2] 301 [/td2][td2] 683 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 7 [/td2][td2] 338 [/td2][td2] 654 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 8 [/td2][td2] 405 [/td2][td2] 660 [/td2][td2] 1,540 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 9 [/td2][td2] 503 [/td2][td2] 700 [/td2][td2] 1,557 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 10 [/td2][td2] 631 [/td2][td2] 776 [/td2][td2] 1,610 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 11 [/td2][td2] 789 [/td2][td2] 887 [/td2][td2] 1,699 [/td2][td2] 6,842 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 12 [/td2][td2] 977 [/td2][td2] 1,033 [/td2][td2] 1,823 [/td2][td2] 6,925 [/td2][td2] 26,832 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 13 [/td2][td2] 1,196 [/td2][td2] 1,215 [/td2][td2] 1,983 [/td2][td2] 7,048 [/td2][td2] 26,914 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 14 [/td2][td2] 1,445 [/td2][td2] 1,431 [/td2][td2] 2,178 [/td2][td2] 7,212 [/td2][td2] 27,039 [/td2][td2] ~ [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 15 [/td2][td2] 1,724 [/td2][td2] 1,683 [/td2][td2] 2,409 [/td2][td2] 7,415 [/td2][td2] 27,208 [/td2][td2] 82,861 [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 16 [/td2][td2] 2,034 [/td2][td2] 1,970 [/td2][td2] 2,675 [/td2][td2] 7,659 [/td2][td2] 27,421 [/td2][td2] 82,999 [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 17 [/td2][td2] 2,374 [/td2][td2] 2,292 [/td2][td2] 2,978 [/td2][td2] 7,943 [/td2][td2] 27,677 [/td2][td2] 83,193 [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 18 [/td2][td2] 2,744 [/td2][td2] 2,649 [/td2][td2] 3,315 [/td2][td2] 8,267 [/td2][td2] 27,978 [/td2][td2] 83,445 [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 19 [/td2][td2] 3,145 [/td2][td2] 3,041 [/td2][td2] 3,689 [/td2][td2] 8,632 [/td2][td2] 28,321 [/td2][td2] 83,753 [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 20 [/td2][td2] 3,576 [/td2][td2] 3,468 [/td2][td2] 4,098 [/td2][td2] 9,037 [/td2][td2] 28,709 [/td2][td2] 84,118 [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 21 [/td2][td2] 4,037 [/td2][td2] 3,931 [/td2][td2] 4,542 [/td2][td2] 9,481 [/td2][td2] 29,141 [/td2][td2] 84,540 [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 22 [/td2][td2] 4,529 [/td2][td2] 4,428 [/td2][td2] 5,022 [/td2][td2] 9,967 [/td2][td2] 29,616 [/td2][td2] 85,019 [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 23 [/td2][td2] 5,051 [/td2][td2] 4,961 [/td2][td2] 5,538 [/td2][td2] 10,492 [/td2][td2] 30,135 [/td2][td2] 85,554 [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 24 [/td2][td2] 5,603 [/td2][td2] 5,529 [/td2][td2] 6,090 [/td2][td2] 11,058 [/td2][td2] 30,697 [/td2][td2] 86,146 [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 25 [/td2][td2] 6,185 [/td2][td2] 6,132 [/td2][td2] 6,676 [/td2][td2] 11,664 [/td2][td2] 31,304 [/td2][td2] 86,795 [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 26 [/td2][td2] 6,798 [/td2][td2] 6,771 [/td2][td2] 7,299 [/td2][td2] 12,310 [/td2][td2] 31,954 [/td2][td2] 87,501 [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 27 [/td2][td2] 7,441 [/td2][td2] 7,444 [/td2][td2] 7,957 [/td2][td2] 12,996 [/td2][td2] 32,648 [/td2][td2] 88,263 [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 28 [/td2][td2] 8,115 [/td2][td2] 8,153 [/td2][td2] 8,651 [/td2][td2] 13,723 [/td2][td2] 33,386 [/td2][td2] 89,082 [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 29 [/td2][td2] 8,818 [/td2][td2] 8,896 [/td2][td2] 9,380 [/td2][td2] 14,489 [/td2][td2] 34,167 [/td2][td2] 89,958 [/td2][/tr1]
[tr2][td2] 30 [/td2][td2] 9,552 [/td2][td2] 9,675 [/td2][td2] 10,145 [/td2][td2] 15,296 [/td2][td2] 34,992 [/td2][td2] 90,891 [/td2][/tr2]
[tr1][td2] 31 [/td2][td2] 10,317 [/td2][td2] 10,489 [/td2][td2] 10,946 [/td2][td2] 16,144 [/td2][td2] 35,861 [/td2][td2] 91,880 [/td2][/tr1]

 

[DeletedUser594]

Off topic but since this thread has most the people I would expect may have an answer: Does anyone have the numbers on Elven:Human players by world? I'm curious to see the % breakdown

 

[DeletedUser61]

I'm not going to try to jam 6 years of Calculus and Differential Equations into a forum post, but

http://www.matematicasvisuales.com/english/html/analysis/derivative/quadratic.html​

does provide a surprisingly interesting overview of the tools that we're working with. The page has several interactive elements, so do some clicking. In fact the entire site is pretty interesting, and the links at the bottom of the page are well worth reading.

It's quite obvious that the coefficients for the various rings didn't just drop out of the clear blue sky, rather they're the answer to two questions.

1. What's the desired total cost for scouting each ring?
2. How many relic sectors are in each ring?

As illustrated in the above referenced page the derivative (the rate of change) we're after is

f(x) = ax^2 + bx + c => f '(x) = 2ax + b
​

So the cost of scouting the NEXT sector will be the current cost + 2a(x+1) + b where x is the number of previously scouted sectors. However, there are a few significant challenges.

• The coefficients are different for each ring, although we will hopefully be able to find an overall pattern
• Only two significant digits are displayed, so there's a significant roundoff error
• Each Advanced Scouting technology reduces the scouting costs (and probably the other costs as well) by 25%
• Scouting costs are probably an emergent behavior, so we'll need to surmise how the local map-building code is written
• The first ring, the seed ring, may be hard coded rather than formula driven
• There's probably some buggy code in a few places, just to keep things interesting

To chase down the results that we want, we'll need do some fairly fancy integration over the number of sectors in each ring, and then solve for the total cost that we want for that ring. At the moment we're making a lot of assumptions about the various breakpoints, but we've got the beast cornered. We're after a nice "simple" pattern that ties everything together, and the above indicated Monotonic Experiment is designed to separate the hair, hide, and hamburger.

To state the challenge the other way round, we HAVE the hamburger, and we're trying to figure out where it came from.

 

[DeletedUser61]

For each encounter, the Number of Defending Enemy Squads can vary from 1 to 8.

• The total strength of the defending troops is correlated to the Scouting Costs, although we have not yet nailed down the relationship.
• There's a linear relationship between the number of squads, for each encounter in a sector and the number of weighted troops each squad.
• The total number of weighted troops per sector encounter is what I've charted in this post
  • Small squads don't hit as hard, but they'll hit you more times per round
  • Small squads are easier to kill, but you can't hit them as often, nor in every round if you're out numbered.

Units Size Theory [tr1][td2] 1 [/td2][td2] 133 [/td2][td2] 132.83 [/td2][/tr1] [tr2][td2] 2 [/td2][td2] 140 [/td2][td2] 140.06 [/td2][/tr2] [tr1][td2] 3 [/td2][td2] 147 [/td2][td2] 147.29 [/td2][/tr1] [tr2][td2] 4 [/td2][td2] 155 [/td2][td2] 154.51 [/td2][/tr2] [tr1][td2] 5 [/td2][td2] 162 [/td2][td2] 161.74 [/td2][/tr1] [tr2][td2] 6 [/td2][td2] 168 [/td2][td2] 168.96 [/td2][/tr2] [tr1][td2] 7 [/td2][td2] 176 [/td2][td2] 176.19 [/td2][/tr1] [tr2][td2] 8 [/td2][td2] 184 [/td2][td2] 183.42 [/td2][/tr2] [tr1][td2] Linear [/td2][td2] 7.23 [/td2][td2] 125.61 [/td2][/tr1] Units Size Theory [tr1][td2] 1 [/td2][td2] 94 [/td2][td2] 93.82 [/td2][/tr1] [tr2][td2] 2 [/td2][td2] 100 [/td2][td2] 99.95 [/td2][/tr2] [tr1][td2] 3 [/td2][td2] 105 [/td2][td2] 106.08 [/td2][/tr1] [tr2][td2] 4 [/td2][td2] 112 [/td2][td2] 112.21 [/td2][/tr2] [tr1][td2] 5 [/td2][td2] 119 [/td2][td2] 118.34 [/td2][/tr1] [tr2][td2] 6 [/td2][td2] 125 [/td2][td2] 124.46 [/td2][/tr2] [tr1][td2] 7 [/td2][td2] 131 [/td2][td2] 130.59 [/td2][/tr1] [tr2][td2] 8 [/td2][td2] 136 [/td2][td2] 136.72 [/td2][/tr2] [tr1][td2] Linear [/td2][td2] 6.13 [/td2][td2] 87.69 [/td2][/tr1] Units Size Theory [tr1][td2] 1 [/td2][td2] 58 [/td2][td2] 58.50 [/td2][/tr1] [tr2][td2] 2 [/td2][td2] 62 [/td2][td2] 61.57 [/td2][/tr2] [tr1][td2] 3 [/td2][td2] 65 [/td2][td2] 64.64 [/td2][/tr1] [tr2][td2] 4 [/td2][td2] 68 [/td2][td2] 67.71 [/td2][/tr2] [tr1][td2] 5 [/td2][td2] 70 [/td2][td2] 70.79 [/td2][/tr1] [tr2][td2] 6 [/td2][td2] 74 [/td2][td2] 73.86 [/td2][/tr2] [tr1][td2] 7 [/td2][td2] 77 [/td2][td2] 76.93 [/td2][/tr1] [tr2][td2] 8 [/td2][td2] 80 [/td2][td2] 80.00 [/td2][/tr2] [tr1][td2] Linear [/td2][td2] 3.07 [/td2][td2] 55.43 [/td2][/tr1]

Enemy Strength = Slope * Squads + a constant The numbers in lavander are hypothetical.

 

[DeletedUser1122]

Does anyone have the numbers on Elven:Human players

Our fellowship is 1 human to 3 eleves approximately.