Cauldron Recipes

[Moho]

in the same world.

Well, this is a different situation. But my three cities in different worlds show different diamond ingredients.

 

[Deleted User - 849411552]

Hey peeps,

I'd like to make a Cauldron Recipe Book link in the Sorcerers Scrolls of Knowledge. I'd like each and everyone one of your recipes in it, unless you don't want yours included, just let me know.
I think this is kind of exciting and I'm anxious to see the outcome of the upcoming recipes !!! Way to go !!!!

Thank you for taking this on Muffy, I think this an excellent idea!

 

[ajqtrz]

It would be nice to have the recipes in a standard recipe format. I tried to do that in the opening post. It's simple and gives, I think, all the results. But I'm still new to the cauldron so I'm probably missing something. Any suggestions?

AJ

 

[Katwick]

I think its the exact opposite of what you just said actually.

You're entirely correct. Thank You!!!

• The GREATEST quantity should all be added FIRST
• Sequence the remaining ingredients MOST to LEAST

While it seems scary to immediately run up the prices, you run them up LESS that way, 110% per Ingredient, than if you entered entered one of each of the remaining Ingredients, 154% per Ingredient, on each pass. The 2nd addition of each ingredient would be at 154%, rather than an accumulate of 110% increases.

This is NOT a template for Ingredient Pricing. We're ONLY showing what the STARTING price would be if you jumped over and starting entering other than the Ingredient in the first Column. The Totals are NOT your total cost, rather it's how much the price will have increased before you even got started on that Column, were you to switch Columns halfway through.

• 050.00 is the Starting Price for adding ALL of the Ingredients in the first Column
• 055.00 would be the Starting Price for entering all of the Ingredient in the second Column, after adding 1 of the 1st Ingredient
• 060.50 would be the Starting Price for entering all of the Ingredient in the third Column, after adding 2 of the 1st Ingredient (or one of each)
• etc

It's the 110% driven STARTING price that's critical, before you begin the 154% driven addition price of each Ingredient. You want to start adding your most expensive Ingredient at the lowest possible price.
View attachment 14753

Here's an Ingredient Sequence Pricing spreadsheet that you should be able to download and fiddle with.

• Enter ALL of your Best Ingredient first, and then trim the recipe with the smaller (cheaper) amounts.
• If you're going to use some Diamonds anyway, it's best to use the Diamonds first (for your production recipe), and then use your Witch Point in the remaining headroom. While unused Witch Point carry over into the Studying phase, use them or lose them before Saturday.

 

[Moho]

I decide on the recipe depending on what diamond-free ingredients are available. Here's this week's approach:

 

[Moho]

I've just done the Spire in Arendyll, but there was a small change in my recipe so that I could focus on the General's Mayhem effect:

Which I obtained:

But the second effect was obtained too:

And here are the two effects displayed at the cauldron:

 

[Katwick]

Verification Recipe - Twelve Twice
This data is from Feb 12, 2023 with 10 Diplomas and 9 points of SB Boost. US-Khelonaar-Katwick.

	C_	T3	SB	OR	WS	T2	ST	GM	GS	T1	SM	GD	S1	GU	A3	HT	S2	HB	A1	F+	A2	F+	F+	F+
	1	6	3	9	2	5	7	10	8	4	11	12	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	Tech	Diploma
B	10%	40%	5.6%	10%	10%	40%	4%	10%	4%	40%	4%	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	Max	Boost
D	5:00	5:00	2:48	5:00	5:00	5:00	2:00	5:00	3:00	5:00	2:00	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	Max	Duration
12	10	9.4											?						?		?				25d	Fire_Spore
23	8.1	13.5	6.7											?					wrap	?		?				Beetlenut
34	4.5	6.8	11.3	5.6		=28.2							?		?				odd		?		?			Mana_Shell
45		4.5	6.8	11.3	5.6									?		?			even			?		?		Flying_Iris
56			4.5	6.8	11.3	5.6							?		?		?						?			Medusa_Egg
67				4.5	6.8	11.3	5.6							?		?		?						?		Caterpillar_Lime
78					4.5	6.8	11.3	5.6					?		?		?		?				?		25d	Nightshade_Blossom
89						4.5	6.8	11.3	5.6					?		?		?		?				?	25d	Mocking_Tongues
9A							4.5	6.8	11.3	5.6					?		?		?		?		?			Eye_Sprouts
AB								5.7	8.1	14.1	0					?		?		?		?		?	25d	Bitterhair_Leaf
BC									11.3	17.1	0	0					?		?		?					Cottoncloud_Bud
C1	12.6	wrap								15.7	0	0						?		?		?				Ear_Truffle
%	15.4	13.2	13.2	13.2	13.2	12.7	13.2	15.0	18.7	22.4	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	Max	Four_Once
%	6.8	6.2	6.8	8.3	6.8	6.8	6.8	6.8	6.8	6.8	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	Max	Twelve_Once

 

[Katwick]

Verification Recipe - Combining Ingredients
This post presents a Reverse Engineered model that explains the straight-forward design that's used in the Elvenar Cauldron Brewery.
I'll set up a sharable Excel Spreadsheet once we've validated the model, and have corrected most of the flaws.

• Each Ingredient is represented by an 15 cell vector, let's define it as 123456789ABCDEF
• Vector Values are added for each active Diploma, and then scaled for the number of ingredients.
  • It's 20/7 for a single ingredient, and goes up to 100/7 for 25 Ingredients. (Nice of the 7s to cancel, algebraically, huh?)
• Within each Ingredient, FOUR sequential cells, from X - , will have the value of 1 1 2 3, and the remainder of the cells will be zeros
  • For display and computational convenience, DEf wraps around and maps onto 123
  • If a particular cell is not associated with a Diploma, the active values are normalize to total 7
    • 7/7(1123) yields 2.857 2.857 5.714 8.571 for most single ingredients at Diploma level 10
    • 7/6(0123) yields 0.000 3.333 6.663 9.993 for Coins, Precious Goods when you use one Mana Shell at Diploma level 10
    • 7/6(1023) yields 3.333 0.000 for ST, __, GS, T1 when you use one Bitterhair Leaf at Diploma Level 9. (GM needs Level 10)
    • 7/5(1103) yields 4 4 0 12 for T2, ST, __, GS when you use one Eye Sprouts at Diploma level 9. (GM needs Level 10)
    • 7/4(1120) yields 5 5 10 0 for WS, T2, ST, __ when you use one Mocking Tongue at Diploma level 9. (GM needs Level 10)
    • 7/5(0023) yields 0 0 8 12 for Coins and Basic Goods, when you use one Beetlenut at Diploma level 10)
    • 7/4(1003) yields 5 0 0 15 for Basic Goods and Coins, when you use one Fire Spore at Diploma level 10)
    • 7/2(1100) yields 10 10 0 0 for Settlement and Basic Goods, when you use one Ear Truffle at Diploma level 10)
    • 7/5(0007) yields 0 0 0 20 for Coins when you use one Ear Truffle at Diploma level 4
    • 7/6(1000) yields 20 0 0 0 for Supplies when you use one Mocking Tongue at Diploma level 4

This data is from Feb 12, 2023 with 10 Diplomas and 9 points of SB Boost. US-Khelonaar-Katwick.

	C_	T3	SB	OR	WS	T2	ST	GM	GS	T1	SM	GD	S1	GU	A3	HT	S2	HB	A1	F+	A2	F+	F+	F+
	1	6	3	9	2	5	7	10	8	4	11	12	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	Tech	Diploma
B	10%	40%	5.6%	10%	10%	40%	4%	10%	4%	40%	4%	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	Max	Boost
D	5:00	5:00	2:48	5:00	5:00	5:00	2:00	5:00	3:00	5:00	2:00	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	Max	Duration
12	10	9.4											?						?		?				25d	Fire_Spore
23	8.1	13.5	6.7											?					wrap	?		?				Beetlenut
34	4.5	6.8	11.3	5.6									?		?				odd		?		?			Mana_Shell
45		4.5	6.8	11.3	5.6									?		?			even			?		?		Flying_Iris
56			4.5	6.8	11.3	5.6							?		?		?						?			Medusa_Egg
67				4.5	6.8	11.3	5.6							?		?		?						?		Caterpillar_Lime
78					4.5	6.8	11.3	5.6					?		?		?		?				?		25d	Nightshade_Blossom
89						4.5	6.8	11.3	5.6					?		?		?		?				?	25d	Mocking_Tongues
9A							4.5	6.8	11.3	5.6					?		?		?		?		?			Eye_Sprouts
AB								5.7	8.1	14.1	0					?		?		?		?		?	25d	Bitterhair_Leaf
BC									11.3	17.1	0	0					?		?		?					Cottoncloud_Bud
C1	12.6	wrap								15.7	0	0						?		?		?				Ear_Truffle
%	15.4	13.2	13.2	13.2	13.2	12.7	13.2	15.0	18.7	22.4	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	Max	Four_Once
%	6.8	6.2	6.8	8.3	6.8	6.8	6.8	6.8	6.8	6.8	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	Max	Twelve_Once

Last edited: 3 minutes ago

 

[Katwick]

<Placeholder for>
Verification Recipe - Twelve Four Times
This data is from Feb 12, 2023 with 10 Diplomas and 9 points of SB Boost. US-Khelonaar-Katwick.

	C_	T3	SB	OR	WS	T2	ST	GM	GS	T1	SM	GD	S1	GU	A3	HT	S2	HB	A1	F+	A2	F+	F+	F+
	1	6	3	9	2	5	7	10	8	4	11	12	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	Tech	Diploma
B	10%	40%	5.6%	10%	10%	40%	4%	10%	4%	40%	4%	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	Max	Boost
D	5:00	5:00	2:48	5:00	5:00	5:00	2:00	5:00	3:00	5:00	2:00	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	Max	Duration
1234													?						?		?				25d	Fire_Spore
2345														?					wrap	?		?				Beetlenut
3456													?		?				odd		?		?			Mana_Shell
4567														?		?			even			?		?		Flying_Iris
5678													?		?		?						?			Medusa_Egg
6789														?		?		?						?		Caterpillar_Lime
789A													?		?		?		?				?		25d	Nightshade_Blossom
89AB														?		?		?		?				?	25d	Mocking_Tongues
9ABC															?		?		?		?		?			Eye_Sprouts
ABC1																?		?		?		?		?	25d	Bitterhair_Leaf
BC12																	?		?		?					Cottoncloud_Bud
C123																		?		?		?				Ear_Truffle
%	15.4	13.2	13.2	13.2	13.2	12.7	13.2	15.0	18.7	22.4	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	Max	Four_Once
%	6.8	6.2	6.8	8.3	6.8	6.8	6.8	6.8	6.8	6.8	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	Max	Twelve_Once

 

[Katwick]

<Placeholder for>
Verification Recipe - Twelve Five Times
This data is from Feb 12, 2023 with 10 Diplomas and 9 points of SB Boost. US-Khelonaar-Katwick.

	C_	T3	SB	OR	WS	T2	ST	GM	GS	T1	SM	GD	S1	GU	A3	HT	S2	HB	A1	F+	A2	F+	F+	F+
	1	6	3	9	2	5	7	10	8	4	11	12	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	Tech	Diploma
B	10%	40%	4.4%	10%	10%	40%	4%	10%	4%	40%	4%	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	Max	Boost
D	5:00	5:00	2:48	5:00	5:00	5:00	2:00	5:00	3:00	5:00	2:00	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	Max	Duration
12345													?						?		?				25d	Fire_Spore
23456														?					wrap	?		?				Beetlenut
34567													?		?				odd		?		?			Mana_Shell
45678														?		?			even			?		?		Flying_Iris
56789													?		?		?						?			Medusa_Egg
6789A														?		?		?						?		Caterpillar_Lime
789AB													?		?		?		?				?		25d	Nightshade_Blossom
89ABC														?		?		?		?				?	25d	Mocking_Tongues
9ABC1															?		?		?		?		?			Eye_Sprouts
ABC12																?		?		?		?		?	25d	Bitterhair_Leaf
BC123																	?		?		?					Cottoncloud_Bud
C1234																		?		?		?				Ear_Truffle
%	15.4	13.2	13.2	13.2	13.2	12.7	13.2	15.0	18.7	22.4	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	Max	Four_Once
%	6.8	6.2	6.8	8.3	6.8	6.8	6.8	6.8	6.8	6.8	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	Max	Twelve_Once

 

[Katwick]

Verification Recipe - 100% Success with 25 Witch Point Ingredients
Twenty Five Ingredients guarantees a 100% Success Rate (for 10 Diplomas?).

• Sequencing your Ingredients MOST to LEAST is the cheapest, because using Witch Points
  • Will raise the SAME Ingredient Next Price by 154% (for 10 Diplomas?)
  • Will raise all OTHER Ingredient Next Prices by 110% (for 10 Diplomas?)
  • Four Ingredients, ?random? and different each week, will only be available for the fixed price of 25 Diamonds.
  • As a design convenience, #9, #10, #11, and #12 just "happened to be" my four 25 Diamond Ingredients "this" week
  • Using Diamonds does NOT raise the Next Price of any of the Ingredients.
    • In your Brewed Recipes, use any Diamonds FIRST, to reduce the subsequent size of Witch Point Ingredients.
    • When you're just fiddling, the sequence doesn't matter. You have a unlimited supply of Monopoly Money.
  • If you want to use a few favorite recipes every week, it will cost you some Diamonds
• In the following examples, each recipe uses 25 Witch Point Ingredients. This allows us to show the importance of sequencing.
  • 8519 Witch Points for 1 + 8 singles + 8 singles + 8 singles
  • 9854 Witch Points for 1 + 8 doubles + 4 doubles
  • 7383 Witch Points for 1 + 8 triples
  • 9222 Witch Points for 1 + 6 quadruples (only 6 different Ingredients)
  • 11.5k Witch Points for 5 quintuples (only 5 different Ingredients)
  • 15.0k Witch Points for 1 + 4 sextets (only 4 different ingredients)
  • 15.9k Witch Points for 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 is a very bad way to add 25 ingredients
  • 10.8k Witch Points for 7 + 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 has 5 different STAGGERED Ingredients, which allows you to go heavy on your target Effect, and it's relatively cheap.
  • Do note that "Least to Most" is WAY more expensive than "Most to Least".
• SEQUENCE MATTERS!! because it influences the COST of your Production Recipe.

Again, these results are for a city with 10 Diplomas. Studying (as I understand it) only buffs the Boost of whichever Effect is randomly selected. Tweaking the % Success in your favor is all about how the ingredients interact, and that analysis is my next exercise.
This data is from Feb 12, 2023 with 10 Diplomas and 9 points of SB Boost. US-Khelonaar-Katwick.

% S	1+8+8+8 Singles	Cost	1+8+4 Doubles	Cost	1+8 Triples	Cost	1+6 Quads	Cost	5 Quintus	Cost	1+4 Sextets	Cost	3+4+5 +6+7	Cost	7+6+5 +4+3	Cost
	Everything	====	====	====	====	====	Partials	====	====	====	====	====	Staggered	====	====	====
	Bad		Worse		Better		Good		Better		Best		Horrible		Good
20.0	1	50p
28.3	1	127p
34.6	2	188p	111	246p									333	246p
40.0	3	255p			1111	429p
44.7	4	328p	22	415p			11111	710p	11111	710p
49.0	5	409p
52.9	6	498p	33	620p	222	789p					1111111	1810p	4444	816p	7777777	1810p
56.6	7	595p
60.0	8	702p	44	867p			2222	1400p
63.2	1	933p			333	1267p			22222	1853p
66.3	2	1115p	55	1167p
69.3	3	1315p											55555	2198p
72.1	4	1535p	66	1530p	444	1905p	3333	2411p			222222	4036p			666666	4036p
74.8	5	1777p
77.5	6	2043p	77	1969p					33333	3694p
80.0	7	2335p			555	2753p
82.5	8	2657p	88	2500p			4444	3889p
84.9	1	3350p											666666	5784p	55555	6485p
87.2	2	3895p	11	4261p	666	3882p					333333	7980p
89.4	3	4494p							44444	6658p
91.7	4	5153p	22	5783p			5555	6053p
93.8	5	5878p			777	5384p									4444	8865p
95.9	6	6676p	33	7625p
98.0	7	7554p
100	8	8519p	44	9854p	888	7383p	6666	9222p	55555	11.5kp	444444	15.0kp	7777777	15.9kp	333	10.9kp

 

[Silly Bubbles]

This is a list of best starting initial ingredients for each effect. It's based on 20 diplomas but in theory it should be the same for all diplomas (please let me know if there are any differences). The ingredients' references are based on rows and columns (eg 23 is 2nd row, 3rd column).
If you want to know more here and here's additional information.

 

[Katwick]

Verification Recipes - What's Next?
If you enjoy crunching the numbers, and enjoy squeezing every last drop of blood out of game algorithms, I'd be delighted to delegate a portion of my ongoing Validation Recipe project.

• Once my Beta city reaches Cauldrons (in a couple of weeks,) I'll verify the numbers and publish a Verification Recipe - Four Diplomas as a "Now what do I do" guide to get folks off to a clean and enjoyable start for the Cauldron.
• I'm running a Logarithmic Spline Fit on the % Success rate per Number of Ingredients, and will hopefully be able to nail down a precise formula which is needed in order to duck under the roundoff error in the program's displayed % Success rate for a given recipe
  • One Ingredient for 20% is probably not really exact. The One or else the 20.0%, or both, are probably imprecise
  • Likewise for Twenty Five Ingredients for 100%
  • The interior numbers, Ingredients 2-24 probably only have roundoff errors, which I'm ducking under by using an Excel logarithmic trend line to get more precision and an approximate formula for 2-24 Ingredients, then I'm using a brute force Excel Solver approach to minimize the R^2 errors, until the coefficients reveal themselves (no R^2 errors.)
• As soon as a level 20 player with 20 Diplomas (their Tech Tree is entirely complete) offers their support, we'll extrapolate a 20 Diploma Verification Recipe Chart to ensure that we've spotted all of the sneaky errors in our reverse engineered Cauldron model
  • The adjacent Odd or adjacent Even structure of Recipes for 13-24 Diplomas STRONGLY suggests that we'll be seeing 12 additional Ingredients that have interlaced adjacent Even or adjacent Odd NEGATIVE contribution Ingredients (Rattlesnake Venom anyone?). Being able to Bump an Effect, by suppressing adjacent effects, will facilitate some very high % Success recipes without a lot of garbage Effects. After all, what's the point of Buffing an Effect if you always end up drinking something else?
• As time permits, we'll be offering an Excel recipe design tool that can be downloaded, for the folks who enjoy squeezing the last drop of water out of every sponge, and we MAY move all of this stuff into a new GUIDE flagged Verification Recipe thread, and include a chart for each Diploma level, if folks are struggling with the Excel tools.
  • Right now we're assuming that Recipe Costs are driven by next price 154% increase for the Ingredient that was just added, and the next price 110% increase for everything else. But it may be more complicated than that, and in the Recipe Design Spreadsheet we'll probably want to include an "It's gonna cost ya!" projection that's accurate.
  • We'll include a Cookbook summary, for the player designed recipes, that can be cut and pasted directly into the forum
• Along the way, we'll be comparing our recipe results with those provided by the design tools that Karvest has offered in the Beta forum

Who knows, we might even set up a PERT Chart. Can you tell that I'm an Engineer, by preference and profession? Ohhh! Guess what!!! If you click on the Emoji tool at the top of your forum post, they have a bunch of game icons! I'll have to talk to @Villanesque about including ALL of the Cauldron Effects in the Emojis.

 

[Dew Spinner]

Verification Recipes - What's Next?
If you enjoy crunching the numbers, and enjoy squeezing every last drop of blood out of game algorithms, I'd be delighted to delegate a portion of my ongoing Validation Recipe project.

• Once my Beta city reaches Cauldrons (in a couple of weeks,) I'll verify the numbers and publish a Verification Recipe - Four Diplomas as a "Now what do I do" guide to get folks off to a clean and enjoyable start for the Cauldron.
• I'm running a Logarithmic Spline Fit on the % Success rate per Number of Ingredients, and will hopefully be able to nail down a precise formula which is needed in order to duck under the roundoff error in the program's displayed % Success rate for a given recipe
  • One Ingredient for 20% is probably not really exact. The One or else the 20.0%, or both, are probably imprecise
  • Likewise for Twenty Five Ingredients for 100%
  • The interior numbers, Ingredients 2-24 probably only have roundoff errors, which I'm ducking under by using an Excel logarithmic trend line to get more precision and an approximate formula for 2-24 Ingredients, then I'm using a brute force Excel Solver approach to minimize the R^2 errors, until the coefficients reveal themselves (no R^2 errors.)
• As soon as a level 20 player with 20 Diplomas (their Tech Tree is entirely complete) offers their support, we'll extrapolate a 20 Diploma Verification Recipe Chart to ensure that we've spotted all of the sneaky errors in our reverse engineered Cauldron model
  • The adjacent Odd or adjacent Even structure of Recipes for 13-24 Diplomas STRONGLY suggests that we'll be seeing 12 additional Ingredients that have interlaced adjacent Even or adjacent Odd NEGATIVE contribution Ingredients (Rattlesnake Venom anyone?). Being able to Bump an Effect, by suppressing adjacent effects, will facilitate some very high % Success recipes without a lot of garbage Effects. After all, what's the point of Buffing an Effect if you always end up drinking something else?
• As time permits, we'll be offering an Excel recipe design tool that can be downloaded, for the folks who enjoy squeezing the last drop of water out of every sponge, and we MAY move all of this stuff into a new GUIDE flagged Verification Recipe thread, and include a chart for each Diploma level, if folks are struggling with the Excel tools.
  • Right now we're assuming that Recipe Costs are driven by next price 154% increase for the Ingredient that was just added, and the next price 110% increase for everything else. But it may be more complicated than that, and in the Recipe Design Spreadsheet we'll probably want to include an "It's gonna cost ya!" projection that's accurate.
  • We'll include a Cookbook summary, for the player designed recipes, that can be cut and pasted directly into the forum
• Along the way, we'll be comparing our recipe results with those provided by the design tools that Karvest has offered in the Beta forum

Who knows, we might even set up a PERT Chart. Can you tell that I'm an Engineer, by preference and profession? Ohhh! Guess what!!! If you click on the Emoji tool at the top of your forum post, they have a bunch of game icons! I'll have to talk to @Villanesque about including ALL of the Cauldron Effects in the Emojis.

That was all Greek to me but happy you are figuring it out for a lot of us! I am sure it will be more understandable as you refine it.

 

[Silly Bubbles]

I've tried to simplify the recipes as much as I could and this is what I came up with. It's based on game files and could be a good start before someone comes up with a spreadsheet that is easy to use and there's an agreement on what strategy to use and that might take a while. Also, this is still a draft so any testing and comments will be helpful.

The ingredients' references are based on rows and columns (eg 23 is 2nd row, 3rd column). The possible ingredients are likely to increase the odds for that effect based on diplomas and other ingredients used so it needs to be checked against your results. All other, not listed ingredients decrease the effect so they can be ignored.

I hope this makes it easier to play with it, let me know how it goes.

 

[Enevhar Aldarion]

As soon as a level 20 player with 20 Diplomas (their Tech Tree is entirely complete) offers their support, we'll extrapolate a 20 Diploma Verification Recipe Chart to ensure that we've spotted all of the sneaky errors in our reverse engineered Cauldron model.

Sorry, but I don't have the time or energy or desire to even try anything complex. All I know is when I have added all 12 ingredients, just to see the numbers, I can watch the numbers change both up and down for a specific effect. I can't verify until I can make a potion again, but going by memory, some ingredients give a large increase, some give little or no increase, and the rest decrease the chance for that effect to spawn. So every effect already has it's positive and negative ingredients.

 

[Katwick]

Verification Recipes - % Success Rate Scaling

This is definitely getting hairy. The Trend Line is Logarithmic, and the Error Line is a Cosine wave. A quick glance at which columns-Diplomas-Effects will suffer the most, suggests that Refined Goods, and the nearby Effects will scale LOWER than they "should", while Basic Goods and the various lower level Effects will scale HIGHER than they "should". The mixed of Ingredients doesn't matter, the scaling is only about the total size of the recipe.

• Recipes with fewer than 16 ingredients, UNDER perform
• Recipes with more than 16 ingredients OVER perform

In the Excel Analysis graph, you can observe that the Logarithmic Trend Line (the small dots) only approximately matches the % Success Scaling factors from the Cauldron (the large dots.) While the error rate from a brute force Solver analysis of the data shows even more clearly that a Cosine wave is riding on top of the Logarithmic curve. The error bar is a squared value, so halfway through the errors become negative,

From the start I've assumed that 1 Ingredient = 20% was an artificial cutoff point, and that 25 Ingredients = 100% was likewise artificial, do that's not the source of the mismatch. As you can see from the dark blue highlighting, for a pure Logarithmic function 1.7 would be the actual number of Ingredients for 20%, while you wouldn't reach100% until level 35.

So, I'll be looking more closely to determine if the Logarithmic assumption is completely wrong, and perhaps the % Success Scaling rate is actually simple if you look at it the right way. Yeah, sure! Why not?

Any suggestions, other than "You're nuts, it's only a game!!, would be most welcome, but I'd hasten to point out that the Planck Constant is a strong indicator that we're actually living in a "real world" simulation. Perhaps the Planck Constant is simply the computational limit of the computer that "God" is using. Probably more than 64 bits, huh? Welcome to my strange world.

 

[Moho]

 

[ajqtrz]

@Katwick Nice and detailed analysis. I agree with one poster who said it will be very helpful to all when it gets boiled down to what we need to do in response in simple terms. I'm really looking forward to that. To tell the truth I only understand about half of what you say because I am not an engineer and while I have a background in statistical analysis, it's not deep enough for what you are doing. Still, I really do appreciate your continued work. And the graphs really help me.

@Silly Bubbles Your chart is a great one. I'm wondering if the possible ingredients could be ordered in their effectiveness with the most effective on the left, descending to the least. Ditto with the main ingredients, though with only two that's probably a wash.

AJ

 

[Katwick]

the possible ingredients could be ordered in their effectiveness

Nope. All Ingredients are equally effective. The Ingredients ALL have a 1123 = 7 vector, and the active cells are simply staggered as you go down the list of Ingredients. EVERY Ingredient actives FOUR adjacent Effects. Missing Diplomas will knock out a cell, so Recipe Design is all about:

• Do the four cell Ingredient Vectors overlap?
  • ----1123_---- (total of 7) for each single Ingredient
  • ----_1123---- (total of 7) for each single Ingredient
  • ----12353---- (total of 14) for adjacent Ingredients
  • ALL of the ingredients are then mushed together to get one giant recipe vector
• Are there any UNDISCOVERED Diplomas right in the middle of the whole mess, that will distort the vector. I've sequenced the possible 4_cell vectors in fake binary sequence.
  • 0000 * 7/0 (needs special handling to avoid an undefine value)
  • 0003 * 7/3
  • 0020 * 7/2
  • 0023 * 7/5
  • 0100 * 7/1
  • 0101 * 7/2
  • 0120 * 7/3
  • 0123 * 7/6
  • 1000 * 7/1
  • 1003 * 7/2
  • 1020 * 7/3
  • 1023 * 7/6
  • 1100 * 7/2
  • 1103 * 7/4
  • 1120 * 7/4
  • 1123 * 7/7 (no missing Diplomas)
  • The math for the mushed together Recipe Vector follows the same principles

The overall structure is interesting.

• Diplomas 01-12 (and columns 1-12 but the order isn't the same) will have 4 adjacent cell in each Ingredient Vector
• Diplomas 13-24 (and columns 13-24) are alternate ODD or alternate EVEN, but otherwise it's the same behavior.
• Looking ahead, it's likely that Cauldron II will introduce 12 MORE Ingredients, with Negative Attributes, (Snake Venom anyone?) that are alternate EVEN or alternate ODD, for Diplomas 13-24, that will allow the advanced players, who have ALL of the Diplomas and can only make boring Recipes, to create Recipe Generated gaps that are similar a missing Diploma. And I'd expect the total attribute value to remain the same, so the negative value attrributes will PUSH UP the positive value attributes for that Effect, up to TWICE as high as you could get with just positive value attributes.

Fun Times in River City!