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Cauldrons 101

Katwick

Cartographer
Cauldrons 101 - N Diploma Recipe Design - Sheets - Katwick 2023B20 << Febuary 20th, but I like to keep my archives orderly.

This downloadable Google Sheet works fine for the four adjacent Ingredients which contribute the Primary Values for each Effect, but there's more to it.

Each Brewery Ingredient is a 12 column vector. The Ingredients are STAGGERED and they wrap around ( column "13" wraps to column 1) .
  • 2 Negative Factors
  • 3 Positive Factors
  • 3 Negative Values
  • 4 Positive Values
-2f-2f1f1f2f-2v-1v-1v1v1v2v3v34_Ear_Truffle_is_the_only_Brewery_Ingredient_that_doesn't_wraparound
  • Positive Values are Contributions associated with each Ingredient. That's all we're considering at the moment, and they're all you need to worry about if you're just focusing the 4 Ingredients associated with a particular Effect. That's all our Google Sheet does at the moment, and there's a separate tab for each Diploma level, because the contributions for each level have been calculated by hand.
  • Negative Values are also Contributions, but they're further away from a particular Effect. We're working on a Google Sheet that includes the negative contributions, but what we're really after is a spreadsheet that has every Diploma Level on a single sheet, so that you can tell what adding a Diploma will do to your favorite recipe, with automatic contribution updates as youi add Ingredients, so that you can FOLLOW what's actually happening as you add Ingredients, and thereby develop some intuition for Recipe Design.
  • Positive and Negative Factors are the Ingredients that don't influence YOU, or more to the point, don't influence YOUR primary Effect. Factors raise or lower the contribution of the Ingredients on the opposite side of the Ingredient circle, where your "blanks" are located.
    • I'm never going to worry about developing an Intuition for Factors. It's not going to happen.
    • I do, however, highly recommend the Excel Spreadsheet that Karvest has presented in the Beta Forum. It includes factoring, and focuses on recipe optimization
      • Start with a mix of Ingredients that you THINK is pretty good
      • Indicate any Ingredients that you want to avoid, because they cost Diamonds this week
      • Indicate how many Witch Points you can expend
      • Indicate your Diploma level
      • Indicate which Effects you're trying to optimize
      • Push the button
      • Wait while Excel does it's thing, and don't worry about exactly what's happening in the Black Box.
      • Drink up!

The Negative Contribution Value Beast
I'm now working on a more complex Google Sheet that accounts for Negative Value contributions (but without any factoring), I'm also trying to collapse the hand-calculated contribution values, and therefore a separate tab for each Diploma level, into just a single sheet that automatically shows what happens to the piecemeal contributions as you add ingredients or get additional Diplomas.
 
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Katwick

Cartographer
Eye Sprouts - ORCs bug

If you're into that sort of thing, you can download the Beta Cauldrons 101 model that I used to run down this bug.
It's at Eye Sprouts - Orcs Bug - Katwick Beta 2023C06

Use Ctrl + and Ctrl - (or a two finger stretch) if squinting doesn't do the trick.

Bug with 1 Eye Sprout - Katwick 2023C06.png

One Eye Sprout Bug - Katwick 2023C06.png

Bug with 1 of everything including Happy Orcs - Katwick Beta 2023C06.png


Bug with 1 of everything including Happy Orcs - Katwick 2023C06.png


Commentary would just spoil it, huh?
 
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ajqtrz

Chef - loquacious Old Dog
Here's my question. What would these look like if you didn't use any herbs that used diamonds? I notice that all the examples use at least one diamond cost herb, and several of those, so it's at least 25-200 diamonds each week. And does the use of only non-diamond herbs mean you always get a lower chance?

Thanks for the analysis. It appears you are getting closer to nailing it in a manner we can use. A spreadsheet that tells you what and how much to use would be awesome. At that point no recipe's would need to be posted. It would let you pick the first, second, and third potions you want, then check the diamond ingredients (to say "don't use" or if not checked tell you how many diamonds the potions would cost) and so on. In other words, you put in all the info and it tells you the best course to take to achieve your goals. If you built that, I'd probably donate a few bucks to it.

AJ
 
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Katwick

Cartographer
Ahhh, but why not have it BOTH ways? Make a reasonable guess, and then confirm it with the Solver.

Dodging the Diamonds keeps things lively, but I don't think anybody will have to sell their grandkids to come up with 200 Diamonds per week.
 

The Fairy

Scroll-Keeper, Buddy Fan Club Member
7 Diploma ST Recipe: Strength Training for Monsters
7 Diploma ST Recipe.png
Katwich, I don’t think I understand your numbers. I have a city with 7 diplomas, so I tried adding the ingredients you suggest:
1678131191858.png

I get 41.3% chance to trigger TG strength. If I read your table correctly then you get 46%?
And I can’t make this recipe. Partly because I refuse to spend diamonds, partly because even when using diamonds for some of the ingredients it still costs 1700 witch points, but I only have 958 witch points available.
 

The Fairy

Scroll-Keeper, Buddy Fan Club Member
A spreadsheet that tells you what and how much to use would be awesome. At that point no recipe's would need to be posted. It would let you pick the first, second, and third potions you want, then check the diamond ingredients (to say "don't use" or if not checked tell you how many diamonds the potions would cost) and so on. In other words, you put in all the info and it tells you the best course to take to achieve your goals. If you built that, I'd probably donate a few bucks to it.
Karvest on the beta forum has made a spreadsheet that can do this. It is in Excel though, so I haven’t used it.
https://beta.forum.elvenar.com/index.php?threads/the-cauldron.18155/post-112433

What I do instead is to use his table which shows how the different ingredients affect the different effects:
1678131498009.png

All ingredients affect the probabilities for all effects, either positively (green numbers in the table) or negatively (red numbers). Bigger numbers have a bigger influence. (The v and f columns influence the effects in different ways, I think the v columns have bigger influence when using relatively few ingredients and the f columns have bigger influence when using relatively many ingredients.)

I will show an example from a chapter 8 city with 7 available effects. I will remove the columns for the effects I don’t have available and cross out the rows that costs diamonds (I refuse to spend diamonds!):
1678131627236.png

I am mostly interested in barracks strength with TG strength as second, so I will try optimizing for barracks strength.

I start by adding a few of the ingredient that helps the most on barracks strength. Adding too many of the same ingredient is expensive, and not necessarily a lot better. Sadly mana shells which have +3 for barracks strength is not available this week, so I start with a few flying iris instead as they have +2 in the v column for barracks (and +1 in the f column for TG):
1678131736174.png

Looking in the table Bitterhair Leaf has +2 for barracks too (but in the f column) and it has +1 for TG (in the v column):
1678131797218.png

After adding a few ingredients I will now look at the unwanted effects that have a high percentage - in this case coins and T3 which both have 8.7%. So I will look for ingredients that are red for coins and T3 and green for barracks strength. Caterpillar Lime and ear truffle both fulfills this and I try adding one of each and check after adding each one that they help as expected:
1678132304972.png

Nightshade Blossom is also red for coins and T3 and green for TG strength, but red for barracks strength. I try adding one to see the effect. It lowers the barracks strength a little, but increases the TG strength a lot, so I keep it:
1678132350745.png

I have now spent around ⅔ of my available witch points. I try adding one ingredient to see the effect and then I remove it again, I do this for all the non-diamond ingredients. None of the ingredients seem to help a lot, so I keep the recipe in my last screenshot. This recipe is most likely not the optimal one, but gives a decent result and I didn't spend a lot of time creating it.

I don't have a lot of spare spell fragments in this city, but in the cities where I do I will add 10k spell fragments as that increases the max strength and max duration with 50% and gives 10.5% chance for a critical effect.

In the study phase I have bought extra witch points with spare resources. My big cities have a lot of goods, so there I have bought a lot of witch points, but in this city I have only bought some with coins. And so far I have only leveled the military effects here.
 

Silly Bubbles

You cant pop them all
All ingredients affect the probabilities for all effects, either positively (green numbers in the table) or negatively (red numbers). Bigger numbers have a bigger influence.

The positive value can be sometimes offset by a negative value depending on other ingredients used and also on number of diplomas as they unlock new effects that influences the probabilities of other effects. As a rule of thumb, two largest green values in "v" column always increase the probability while the rest of the green values can increase the probability depending on other ingredients used. All the red values decrease the probability.
 

Katwick

Cartographer
I get 41.3% chance to trigger TG strength. If I read your table correctly then you get 46%?
And I can’t make this recipe. Partly because I refuse to spend diamonds, partly because even when using diamonds for some of the ingredients it still costs 1700 witch points, but I only have 958 witch points available.
Ear Truffle Bug - What are we looking for - Katwick 2023C06.png

If you follow the Blue line, you'll notice that 7 ST (Strength Training) and 23 Nightshade Blossom intersect at a 3, which is the biggest number in the chart.
  • Now follow the numbers LEFT from the three, including the wraparound,
    and you'll see -2 -1 1 1 2 -2 -1 -1 1 1 2 3
  • Now follow the numbers DOWN from the three SAME PATTERN!!!
  • So the stagger means that EVERY Herb fills ONE cell of EVERY Effect
Ear Truffle Bug - Diamonds - Katwick 2023C06.png

I'm using Conditional Formatting to flag both the Diploma columns and the Diamond Rows, just for ease of use. The flag field is formatted for Short Dates, but any nonblank will flag.

The program ignores Effects that you haven't released, but if fewer people are eating at the table, and ALL of the food has to be eaten, then everybody that's still there gets a second helping.

Ear Truffle Bug - Weekly - Katwick 2023C06.png


Eeeekk! The numbers don't match. <Spends 90 minutes trying to isolate the Eye Sprouts bug.>
Ear Truffle Bug - Weekly Game - Katwick 2023C06.png

Hmmm. Notices that the Model is at 7 Diplomas, but the Brewery is at 10 Diplomas. Now the numbers match. But there's an important concept.
  • The SAME recipe will deteriorate as you earn Diplomas. All Effects see All Herbs, and the pie gets divided amongst more and more Effects, which means that your favorite Effect will be getting lost in the random crowd.
  • You get an allotment of Witch Points every week, use 'em or lose "em, but they do carry over into the Studying phase. Specifically, you get the accumulated Tech per COMPLETED Chapter (all the techs must be completed) MULTIPLIED by the Chapter number.
  • The % Success space get's squeezed harder and harder, specifically
  • Where N in the number of Herbs, Total % Success Rate = SQRT(N/25)
    • SQRT(1/25) = 1/5 = 20%
    • SQRT(25/25) = 1 = 100%
    • The last few cables don't make much difference.
Eye Sprout Bug - Duh Diplomas - Katwick 2023C06.png


Notice that I spent 1700 Witch Points (of 1715) plus 3 Diamonds for Eye Sprouts, which gave us a 33.69% chance of landing on ST when they pass out the drinks.

Also notice that I have 28 VALUE points. It's in the spreadsheet right below the 7 ST columns.

So what's with the rest of the green stuff in the Factor column.

Ear Truffle Bug - Factored - Katwick 2023C06.png

So this time I'm going with a 65431 Recipe. 12_Beetlenut costs Diamonds this week, BUT it's a 2. Actually, it's a whole lot more than that, because 1.1^12 = 3.1, so by spending 6*25 Diamonds I can TRIPLE my chances of getting what I want. Hmmmm.

And I'll use the Diamonds FIRST, I could use them last too, for the same price BUT MOST TO LEAST should be automatic. The recipe is exactly the same cost as it was previously, except for a few Diamonds.

Nobody is GRIPPING about it yet, but if you're out of Witch Points, and you really really really need that Factor, about all you can do is pray for some non-existent (so far) Witch Point Instants.


Ear Truffle Bug - Factored Game - Katwick 2023C06.png


So I did that! But I STILL have 2 possible green Factors, and .....
So. I only have 17 Witch Points left, so I can't do THAT, but I CAN spend as many Diamonds as I wish. So, shall I drop one teency weency Diamond for that 21 Cable?

I already have a better than 50/50 chance of getting what I want. But why not just buy MORE of the 2 point factor, and run our multiplier all the way up to heaven! Hmmm Hmmmm Hmmmm
 

Attachments

  • Eye Sprout Sometimes Bug - Katwick 2023C06.png
    Eye Sprout Sometimes Bug - Katwick 2023C06.png
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Silly Bubbles

You cant pop them all
A spreadsheet that tells you what and how much to use would be awesome. At that point no recipe's would need to be posted. It would let you pick the first, second, and third potions you want, then check the diamond ingredients (to say "don't use" or if not checked tell you how many diamonds the potions would cost) and so on. In other words, you put in all the info and it tells you the best course to take to achieve your goals. If you built that, I'd probably donate a few bucks to it.

I want your few bucks as there already is a spreadsheet here! :D

Let me know how it goes. If you don't have a spreadsheet software, you can make a copy of it under your Google account and use it through the browser.
 

ajqtrz

Chef - loquacious Old Dog
Ahhh, but why not have it BOTH ways? Make a reasonable guess, and then confirm it with the Solver.

Dodging the Diamonds keeps things lively, but I don't think anybody will have to sell their grandkids to come up with 200 Diamonds per week.

The thing is, a lot of players do exactly that. They dodge diamonds because while you can collect lot of diamonds each week, you can also spend a lot...usually a lot more. So if the results of dodging diamonds or not dodging diamonds is the same, why not? If, on the other hand, you are getting something from the diamonds, then how much are you getting for the diamonds spent? That's the question everybody asks when spending diamonds: is it worth it.?

AND, why not just go to the solver first and not do the time-consuming reasonable guess? I'd go to the solver, put in my desires and let it tell me what ingredients to put in, preferably in what order too. Right now I experiment each time and it takes time to do that.

AJ
I want your few bucks as there already is a spreadsheet here! :D

Let me know how it goes. If you don't have a spreadsheet software, you can make a copy of it under your Google account and use it through the browser.
Wow, that works really well. It follows the same pattern of input I use, but I have to use trial and error to find the next, most efficient, ingredient. Thanks!

The only significant improvement I'd like to see is that it just tells you a list of ingredients and in what order to achieve "maximum" percent.

Nice job.

AJ
 

Silly Bubbles

You cant pop them all
The only significant improvement I'd like to see is that it just tells you a list of ingredients and in what order to achieve "maximum" percent.

If you would like it to give you a full recipe without adding each ingredient yourself, you can use Solver but that is a quite advanced spreadsheet tool and you can use this spreadsheet for it. I personally use Solver trying all different scenarios and it does come up with a slightly better recipe after couple of goes. It can't be done automatically without Solver or Macros because it creates a circular reference error.

If you like it automatically list the order of your entered ingredients, it can be sorted but attaching the name of ingredient to each value is not that easy because the number of ingredients is not unique and lookup formulas don't like that. I tried to do some research on it whether someone has a unique solution but no luck so far. I'll let you know if I come up with something.

If you didn't understand any of the above then you could understand that it's definitely not the easiest spreadsheet I've ever done.

EDIT: The ultimate would be to make an app that can get it perfect but someone would definitely have to pay me for it then.
 
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ajqtrz

Chef - loquacious Old Dog
@Silly Bubbles

I'd turn off the autocalc and have a button you press (or the F9, which is recalc in Excel) Each time it recalcs it only redoes the cell with the highest percent and increments it once. You keep doing that until the witch points are used up. Then the autocalc is turned back on. As you do so you keep a counter going as to how many times you've recalculated (you already have that built you sheet). As you recalc you have a separate list that fills itself in each time you recalc. You, in essence, create a history of the values the recalc incremented. I've done this a couple of times and while it's tricky, it can be done. In the end you get a list of ingredients in order they were added.

(or, if you know OfficeBasic, Java, or whatever google docs uses for macros, you could just write one that does all this when you press a single button after entering the needed data. I've done that too, though not in Google docs.)

AJ
 

Silly Bubbles

You cant pop them all
@Silly Bubbles

I'd turn off the autocalc and have a button you press (or the F9, which is recalc in Excel) Each time it recalcs it only redoes the cell with the highest percent and increments it once. You keep doing that until the witch points are used up. Then the autocalc is turned back on. As you do so you keep a counter going as to how many times you've recalculated (you already have that built you sheet). As you recalc you have a separate list that fills itself in each time you recalc. You, in essence, create a history of the values the recalc incremented. I've done this a couple of times and while it's tricky, it can be done. In the end you get a list of ingredients in order they were added.

(or, if you know OfficeBasic, Java, or whatever google docs uses for macros, you could just write one that does all this when you press a single button after entering the needed data. I've done that too, though not in Google docs.)

AJ

You're more than welcome to do it if you think it saves on clicks. I've done my bit for now.
 

Katwick

Cartographer
"Everybody Knows" that your weekly Witch Point allotment is determined by the running total product of Number of Techs*Chapter Number, but I couldn't find a list anywhere. So I got to try out my new Touchscreen Monitor!
Witch Points for Brewing - Katwick 2023C08.png


My in-game Brewery shows 1715, and I've completed 13 of the Techs in chapter 11. 1623+143=1766, so we're getting some sort of partial credit for Tech in the current chapter.

If somebody already has some data, I'd love to see it, but if several people post what they're seeing, AND how old their Tech Tree is, perhaps we will be able to corner this beast.

Switching back and forth between Microsoft (for screenshots, cropping, and resizing) and Google (for Sheets), on a new computer, isn't exactly seamless, but you SHOULD be able to download the above Google sheet from
G:\My Drive\KKSB Cauldrons\Beta\Witch Points for Brewing - Beta - Katwick 2023C08.png
 
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Silly Bubbles

You cant pop them all
"Everybody Knows" that your weekly Witch Point allotment is determined by the running total product of Number of Techs*Chapter Number, but I couldn't find a list anywhere. So I got to try out my new Touchscreen Monitor!
View attachment 15052

My in-game Brewery shows 1715, and I've completed 13 of the Techs in chapter 11. 1623+143=1766, so we're getting some sort of partial credit for Tech in the current chapter.

If somebody already has some data, I'd love to see it, but if several people post what they're seeing, AND how old their Tech Tree is, perhaps we will be able to corner this beast.

Switching back and forth between Microsoft (for screenshots, cropping, and resizing) and Google (for Sheets), on a new computer, isn't exactly seamless, but you SHOULD be able to download the above Google sheet from
G:\My Drive\KKSB Cauldrons\Beta\Witch Points for Brewing - Beta - Katwick 2023C08.png

Thank you for this, I was wondering how the amount of Witch Points is calculated. So it looks like that for each completed research we get the same amount of additional Witch Points as the Chapter number eg completed Ch 12 research gives 12 additional Witch Points if I understand it correctly.

If somebody already has some data, I'd love to see it, but if several people post what they're seeing, AND how old their Tech Tree is, perhaps we will be able to corner this beast.

I've completed all research up to the end of Ch20 and have 7,431 Witch Points.
 

Katwick

Cartographer
Cauldron Solver Design Basis - Katwick 2023C08

Upper Left:
The recipe solver spreadsheet shall be a single Google Sheet (no tabs)
The leftmost section shall be the staggered Value/Function tool that has already been introduced.
Values and Factors - Katwick 2023C08.png


Lower Left: Below the recipe space is a convenient place for Snapshot Titles, and a bit of planning

Center Section: Shall be a results focused tool that, for the most part, is simply derivative.
Match the Brewery - Katwick 2023C09.png


Immediately below the derivative image there shall be two equivalent image that are (always) sorted, using the appropriate variation of =sort(AR7:AX19,1,TRUE,5,TRUE,2,TRUE)
  • Forum Post, which is sorted by Ingredient, Most to Least
  • Brewery Verification, which is sorted by Effect, Most to Least

Field Names
  1. Percent Success Rate (Several secondary effects will often have the same value)
  2. Ingredient Amount (Integer Values) Optimization Weighting (Quantity of Each Ingredient, once the Solver does its thing)
    • We'll actually be using real numbers, rather than integers, because N +/- a few thousandths is close enough, and integer solutions tend to be jumpy.
    • Fractional solution values are acceptable. If the Solver indicates that 1.50 1,50 is a stable solution, leave it to the user to decide if 1.00,2.00 or 2,00,1.00 is preferred for an actual Brew.
    • For sorting purposes, however, do not allow values that are displayed identically to force a "funny" sort behavior, when the natural second value is just a bit higher than the natural first value. See Integer Fractions and the related material.
      • Round down to the nearest 1/(2*3*5*7*11*13)=1/30030 (or a similar technique)
      • Round down to six decimal places
      • Determine that the users don't even care, so long as they can use their preferred sequence..
  3. Effect (which will always be unique)
  4. Care shall be take to avoid scrambling the row-wise integrity of the data set.
It shall be visually apparent that the sorted Ingredients presentation is what should be posted as a Recipe. ( Except for an extra decimal place or two, just to show off.)
  • For Screen Captures, consider using GoFullPage, which is a Chrome (or Edge) Browser extension. (The Snip function in Windows is pretty limited, and Microsoft and Google can both get pretty cranky in mixed environments.) Lightshot which allows you to designate a portion of the screen with the pixel dimensions indicated, tart it up a bit, and save it to a preferred directory. DO NOT use the default Lightshot Account directory for sharing, because the security folks are pretty upset about Lightshot's default naming convention. It's so simple that miscreants can easily guess the likely file names, and access "something" even if they don't have a link.
  • If you STILL need to resize a screen shot to jam it into the 640x480 limitation for the forum, MicroSoft Photos works just fine.

Use the Frontline Systems Solver Extension developed Solver that's available for free as either a Chrome or Edge extension. I've been routinely finding solutions within 15 seconds (on my new high-end desktop.)

The Cauldron 101 Weekly Solver focuses on maximizing a SINGLE targeted Effect. We'll leave the mixed solutions to others.

Let's walk through the various fields:
  • The blue 7 is the the user's Diploma Level, taken from the base document
  • The red 5 is the Diploma for the targeted Effect. As input for the Solver, the user may not have added any quantities at all. If there's a mismatch between entered Ingredients and the targeted Effect, go with the entered Ingredients
  • MAX (so far) indicates how well the Solver is doing. The number should update every few seconds, while the Solver is doing its thing.
  • Available WPs is the maximum number of Witch Points that the user is willing to spend on a Recipe. If the user wants to study the "Best Available" recipe, they'd simply enter a very high number. There's no need to get fancy.
  • Diamonds (updates every 30 seconds or so) <more later>
  • Witch Points (updates every 30 seconds or so) <more later>
  • Ingredients Optimization Weighting. As discussed above, the User will regard these values as the suggested amount of the indicated ingredients. Programmatically it's somewhat trickier, mostly because the targeted Effect, depending on Diamonds and what not, may not be the strongest Effect. We're more interested in initializing the Optimization Weighting numbers.
    • If an Ingredient Amount has been entered in the Values & Factors widget, it shall be amplified.
      • Use =N*1.1^N where N is the amount of that particular ingredient.
      • If the V&F Diamonds column (which is formatted for Short Date) is non-blank, run the optimization as though WPs were being used, and add a (hidden variable) generous number of WPs to the Available WPs. Back them out later, or whenever the WPs requirement approach the indicated limit, and substitute the intended Diamonds. (This area is still pretty squishy.)
  • My inclination is to solve for the BEST solution with only Witch Points, and then back things out to satisfy the various Diamond restrictions and Witch Point limits. It's easy to add a Solver Constraint that zeros out an Ingredient.
  • =ROUNDUP(50*1.1^SUM($D10:D$13)*(1-(1.4*1.1)^D9)/(1-1.4*1.1),0) is the formula that Karvest has developed for Witch Point requirements. Karvest has already done most of the heavy lifting, programmatically, and while we very much appreciate his support and guidance, that's still an ugly formula (even the emojis agree.)
Rightmost Area: Solver pops up at the right of the screen, and the adjacent area shall contain a brief set of instructions on how to use and interpret the Solver results. This area may also be used as a scratch pad and general catch all.

While a second tab may be useful during development, DO NOT include tabs in the production version.

Update Log:
  • 2023C15: Tossed out a lot of the "too much accuracy" stuff. Integer solutions work well, in less than 15 seconds.
 
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Katwick

Cartographer
Weekly Recipes
Diamond Herb Combinations - Katwick 2023C08.png


200 Million is still a fairly large number, so the optimized recipes are not going to be repetitive. Two Weekly DIAMOND recipes for each effect will set up the more interesting Optimized NON-DIAMOND recipes. We'll try to post our analysis at the beginning of each week.

For each Diploma level, plus a couple of extra recipes for 4 Diplomas, we intend to post 4 Standard Recipes, plus an extra couple of recipes if there is something interesting to illustrate:
  1. Weekly: This will be a 5432 recipe that uses just the four green Values that are associated with the primary Effect for that Diploma level. If one or more of the Ingredients needs Diamonds, so be it This 14 Ingredient recipe will typically yield a % Success Rate around 33%.
  2. Optimized Weekly: (Once the Cauldron Solver is released) This will use the 5432 recipe as a starting point, and will push the targeted % Success Rate as high as possible, using only 14 Ingredients and NO Diamonds. The desired Effect will have a High % Success Rate, but probably not the Highest Rate.
  3. Factored: This will be a 654321 recipe that uses the same four green Values, BUT it also includes 2 of the 3 green Factors that are associated with the primary Effect for that Diploma level. If one or more of the Ingredients needs Diamonds, so be it. This 21 Ingredient recipe will typically yield a % Success Rate around 66%
  4. Optimized Factored: (Once the Cauldron Solver is released) This will use the 654321 recipe as a starting point, and will push the targeted % Success Rate as high as possible, using only 21 Ingredients and NO Diamonds. The desired Effect will have a High % Success Rate, but probably not the Highest Rate.
Please note that the Cauldron 101 N Diploma recipes will be useful for anyone who has AT LEAST the required number of Diplomas, although more Effects will try to get a piece of the action, thereby lowering the % Success Rate of the Effect that you're focusing on. But if you're THAT high, you'll have plenty of KPs to toss at the School of Effects, so you'll still come out ahead.

For Diploma level 10 I can verify the recipes in the Brewery, so I'll post Brewery Snapshots as well. For the other levels, if someone posts a verification snapshot, I'll quote it into the right post.

If someone in the Teens is willing to do some fairly heavy duty testing, I'll divert my attention toward the inclusion of levels 13-20, rather than my current focus on the Solver.

Finally, once I get to level 12, where I can verify the Odd/Even that's apparent from secondary sources, I'll extend the Google Sheet to include Diploma Levels 13-24, although level 21-24 have not yet been released. The model doesn't much care if you can actually DO stuff; it's happy to show you the yield for a 2 Diploma Recipe (It's remarkably high, because there's no competition.)
 
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