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    Your Elvenar Team

Conspiracy Theory o.O

  • Thread starter DeletedUser5800
  • Start date

Risen Malchiah

Well-Known Member
So there definitely is a chance on doing much better. And yes, those people will perhaps not always brag. People tend to complain sooner when things are going against them then when getting more than would be expected.
I once got sooo many Father Trees, I didn't know what to do with them. Also, I felt a little guilty because one girl in my fellowship didn't get one and REAALLLY wanted one, so I just didn't have the heart to put them all out.
 

SoggyShorts

Mathematician par Excellence
@Dhurrin
You really should be opening the small boxes if you want to win the daily prize. As proven in other threads the odds are slightly better, but much more importantly you get more rolls.
If you flip a coin 2 times getting zero heads will happen quite a lot, but if you flip it 20 times or 200 times or 20,000 times it will happen less frequently, and bring you much closer to "average"
 

DeletedUser2870

Guest
@SoggyShorts
Exactly my point. In over 300 tries, the result should be pretty close to 25%, not less than half that.

btw, yes, more rolls, but at a lower total percentage and higher use of nuts.
small box=50 nuts, 7%
large box=140 nuts, 25%

So 3 small boxes should give one a 21% chance, at 150 nuts, instead of 25% at 140.

Still, since the 25% is obviously BS for me, as I showed in over 300 attempts and not even getting the daily prize in 12% of the time, its obviously better to start doing small boxes now
 
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DeletedUser5800

Guest
So 3 small boxes should give one a 21% chance, at 150 nuts, instead of 25% at 140.
But the small has a higher chance of nut gain (instead of net gain :D), which is how it edges out the larger.


I just didn't have the heart to put them all out.
...and that is another complete unknown, how many people needed the things more (and they were stronger and worth putting out) vs. how many just have all those visual data points tucked in the closet.

All things considered I will admit there MAY not be a conspiracy... but there MAY be! ;)
 

SoggyShorts

Mathematician par Excellence
btw, yes, more rolls, but at a lower total percentage and higher use of nuts.
small box=50 nuts, 7%
large box=140 nuts, 25%
Small has 30% chance of more nuts
Large has 20% chance of more nuts
Small can get 50 (free roll) or 90 (1.8 free rolls)
Large can get 140 (free roll) or 200 (1.4 free rolls)

Another way to look at it is that
With large boxes you will fail 55% of the time (nuts and building are wins)
With small boxes you will fail 63% of the time (nuts and building are wins)

Slightly higher fail rate, but cost almost 2/3 fewer nuts to try.
 
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DeletedUser2870

Guest
*grins*
Isn't statistics fun?
Anyway, I'm through with the large boxes, since no matter how you look at it, the 25% is not working out. Or at least not for me
 

DeletedUser8187

Guest
I just had what usually happens to me in events. I wanted 2 of the mage thingies on each account. Small boxes only.
On khel I won the building on my second try- sweet! 800 nuts later got my second.
On winy I won first try! 900 nuts later got my second.

Inno would be really good at selling drugs.

Soggy can I secretly give you my password/login info. You win me a million PRETTY trees and then instantly forget said password.
My poor luck at winning prizes is not limited to this game. Couldn't win at BINGO as a kid, and my mom used to be able to talk me into going to BINGO with her. Now if she asks I shake my head and leave the room.

Yes I know password/login sharing is NOT allowed. I was just (jealously) teasing.
 

DeletedUser8187

Guest
*grins*
Isn't statistics fun?
Anyway, I'm through with the large boxes, since no matter how you look at it, the 25% is not working out. Or at least not for me

One way to keep me away from a thread, give some indication math is involved. Soon as I see numbers, percentage points my eyes begin to blur. I need to scroll down quickly.

Since the secret is out. I'll switch it to lovejustinbeiber :p
 

SoggyShorts

Mathematician par Excellence
One way to keep me away from a thread, give some indication math is involved. Soon as I see numbers, percentage points my eyes begin to blur. I need to scroll down quickly.
I'll try to hide the numbers under a spoiler tag from now on.
So if you see a statement like

"Small boxes are better"
Because I said so.

It's your choice if you want to look inside:)
 

DeletedUser5800

Guest
...and none of the probability data works to prove or disprove a conspiracy! They start with the assumption that their isn't one and then pretend the rest is all personal luck. There have been some interesting points brought up here, namely even more variables than I first thought of further proving only that there is no way to prove or disprove if the text matches the code. (Or if there is even a more devious algorithm at play)

So what's the point of all this:
That in a situation where you can never know, it relies totally on trust. In this instance trust that the dev's respect their players. A respect that should be inherent with care.
That some people lack trust points to a much broader problem, namely that the dev's have created an environment where many believe they do not respect them, which we can extrapolate from, 'They don't care about us.' which they have indeed made a lot of action driven indications that this is the case.
So if they are purely self motivated with no care or respect for their player base why wouldn't they take every advantage to manipulate us i.e. stack the proverbial deck. (conspiracy)

Conclusion: I don't trust that the devs care about the players any further than I could roll them up a hill with broom made of wet spaghetti so I in turn lean towards conspiracy! :eek: It may be completely off base but the feeling is real and a huge problem.
 

SoggyShorts

Mathematician par Excellence
I think trust is a smaller factor than you state. Inno makes as many changes as they want without really worrying about our feelings, so where is the motivation to lie about this?
If the chance isn't 25%, but rather 10%- what reason do they have to list it as 25%? Does it gain them anything?
 

DeletedUser5800

Guest
Does it gain them anything?
They had to change one less line of code. LOL
And yes, presenting it better encourages more to participate, making people feel unlucky encourages them to buy their luck, it makes it personal and people are far more likely to spend out of what they think is just them. It further encourages people to spend in general because logic only follows that the worse the odds the less would buy tickets if you will. So there is a distinct reason to rig the game, more money.

...and of course it could just be incompetence and hold no malice.
 

SoulsSilhouette

Buddy Fan Club member
I believe in aliens, aka extraterrestrial life. We are the extraterrestrial life to them. I believe in Angels. I believe in many things I can't see, like DNA. I also believe that this game knows what I need and won't give it to me. If I need a certain relic, I don't get it. If I need pells, I don't get them. If I need KP's, I don't get it. Inno hates me because the same happens to me in FoE. I also believe that for every drop of rain that falls, a flower grows.
 

DeletedUser5800

Guest
3 FS people volunteered there results so far.
#1 Rolled 50 17 times and got 1 daily nearly all gold and supply instants leaning heavier on gold.
#2 Rolled 140 23 times and got 0 dailies nearly all gold and supply instants leaning heavier on gold.
#3 Rolled 140 16 times and got 2 dailies nearly all gold and supply instants leaning heavier on gold.

So 2 and 3 have 0% and 12.5% avg. 5.1%...
Small chest did slightly better at 5.8%

I know super small data point... and people tend to give supporting data more readily than non-supportive...
but very suspicious. o_O

Note: 0% is a damn sight short of 25%
 

DeletedUser2870

Guest
@Lord Draconian
But it seems to support the outcome of my 300+ rolls test on the 140 chests, which averaged about 10%. Your 0% is very alarming, but might be caused by the low number of rolls. Stil...that 25% chance is more and more looking like a bunch of crap

@Ashrem. I support your theory as well, or at least mostly. I feel its a test to see how far they can actually frustrate players before a game gets blown up
 
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