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Conspiracy Theory o.O

  • Thread starter DeletedUser5800
  • Start date
SoggyShorts

SoggyShorts

Mathematician par Excellence
@Lord Draconian
Beta = 7 buildings 2600 nuts left, Statistically should win 6 more for 13 total (1 above average)
Khel = 3 buildings 3500 nuts left, Statistically should win 9 more for 12 total (exactly average)
Winy = 3 buildings 3300 nuts left, Statistically should win 8 more for 11 total (1 below average)

Actually with 7(beta) 14(live) days left I'll be getting more nuts, close to 1 more building on each of the above.
 

DeletedUser5800

Guest
@SoggyShorts I propose that makes you lucky, not average. I think the text is the best one can hope for not the average!
I furthermore disagree with any contradictory evidence on the grounds that they do not support my realty! :p

Seriously though, is there a place where all of you multi-world uber players whom collect the most accurate data mix all of your results together to check said numbers?... there should really be a watchdog group on this. LOL
 
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DeletedUser8187

Guest
SoggyShorts said:
Beta update 1200 nuts left, 13 buildings won =)
Click to expand...

I totally rethinking my password joke. I won 4 buildings. I haven't kept track of instants,and KP wins. With the one quest line complete, I have about 400 nuts left, (maybe only one nut left and your reading her post :cool: ).
There are not any upcoming buildings I'm dying to get, STILL on the look out for the beautiful tree prize. I've seen some purple thingy I might go for, and still NO unicorns!!
 
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DeletedUser5800

Guest
SoggyShorts said:
Beta update 1200 nuts left, 13 buildings won =)
Click to expand...
I would like to add to the theory that they wrote an algorithm just for you because had you came in here and agreed with me they then would have an actual problem. They have secret code just for the ultra V.I.P.s! :D

I know, I know, I'm not helping my case any by satirizing my own stuff but it was worth it. :p
 

DeletedUser5800

Guest
One of my FS has now done the 140 chest 26 times and gotten 3 buildings... that's how you get smaller players to quit, encourage them to put in a lot of time for nothing... Meanwhile I got 2 hazeltowns out of the small chest with a handful of rolls from ground nuts. I genuinely felt bad about it. (I must have gotten put on the V.I.P. algorithm so I would shut up) ;) ;)
 
SoggyShorts

SoggyShorts

Mathematician par Excellence
Update:
Beta 16 buildings
Khel 8 buildings
Winy 9 buildings
Each city all quests complete and has under 100 nuts left

Looks like I'll end up "average" across all 3 cities.:)
 
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DeletedUser8912

Guest
I'm being perfectly honest here. I think this is an awesome use of the game mechanics to play the game the way you want.
 

DeletedUser2870

Guest
@Exvoxmachina
I think the IDEA is great. However, from the tries (now 400+) on the large chests I've gotten only 47 buildings. That's slightly under 12% instead of around 25%. And that is about the score I have seen consistently on this and the previous events.
In 400+ tries, that really should not happen if the chance really is 25%, 400 'rolls' is statistically enough to provide an accurate average and it should not be off by over half.
Try rolling dice 400 times and you'll find all numbers represented about even, its really unlikely to find twice as many 1s as 2s.

On the other account, where I switched to only opening the small chests now, I am on about 6-7%, with 2 buildings out of 23 rolls, which is pretty much right on the mark.

So though I don't doubt the idea, I really do not believe the 25% chance is true, which makes it very misleading.
 

DeletedUser8382

Guest
I have two buddies that went to Full Sail (a gaming university) and then worked at a game company making Freemium games like this. I've also been playing games like this for awhile. I can guarantee you that any psychological trick you can think of is being used.

Things I have heard from my buddies:

  • There were multiple psychologists that worked closely with the company (this wasn't Inno).
  • The game will be populated with fake players to encourage competition (especially to purchase currency to get ahead), but also a sense of popularity and a sense of accomplishment for raising through the ranks faster.
  • Don't trust any listed percentage
  • Obviously, there are a lot of tricks to try and get you to play as a habit, like the 10 KP cap, the better resources for shorter durations, etc.
  • And, as you may have heard, the game is designed entirely around maximizing profit from "Whales" which are only 1% of active players. That's why there's easily thousands of dollars you can spend just on premium workshops/residences/culture/expansions. You can spend thousands more on KP...
It'd be silly to think that Inno, which is making 150 million a year, isn't using the same tricks of all the other successful companies.
 

DeletedUser5800

Guest
Blockus said:
Don't trust any listed percentage
Click to expand...
Seriously this. I didn't even start this thread to debate the IF it was happening but in the off chance hope someone had gathered enough in game data to have proven the actual percentages.

Though the more I have thought about it the more I have came to the conclusion that were I writing the program I would make it dynamic;
A.To make tracking impossible. and
B. So there were enough 'lucky' people or 'lucky' days to push spending from/on 'unlucky' ones.

Perhaps the numbers are correct every 4th day or some such variable (or for just some people). If they are in constant flux that favors frustration over the entirety it would explain why some people seem to be astronomically lucky and others just as unlucky while the majority is slightly unlucky vs everyone being within a medium range of expectations.

Theories are fun. :D
 

DeletedUser2870

Guest
Theories are fun.
However, the point made by @Blockus is valid in that most of the revenue will come from the so-called whales.
Which is why the change to the CL makes no sense at all, since it hurts them the most. Sure, it could be a trick to get them to spend even more, but on the other hand, this is a good strategy to get those players feel insulted enough to just change to another game.
 
SoggyShorts

SoggyShorts

Mathematician par Excellence
Dhurrin said:
Theories are fun.
However, the point made by @Blockus is valid in that most of the revenue will come from the so-called whales.
Which is why the change to the CL makes no sense at all, since it hurts them the most. Sure, it could be a trick to get them to spend even more, but on the other hand, this is a good strategy to get those players feel insulted enough to just change to another game.
Click to expand...
I don't personally know any whales, or at least I don't know enough about their motives.
How many of them are whales because they like to be on top, but without the time/effort? Those whales might secretly be happy about the change as it hurts the whales that don't mind doing so many visits- an advantage for lazier whales.
Perhaps lazy whales outnumber hard working ones and inno did it for just that reason?
Well...I'm not even really buying into this myself, but it is a conspiracy thread :p
 

DeletedUser5800

Guest
Dhurrin said:
Which is why the change to the CL makes no sense at all, since it hurts them the most. Sure, it could be a trick to get them to spend even more
Click to expand...
If I were to take a guess at this it would be that they are playing the long con, betting on future whales over current ones.
 

DeletedUser8382

Guest
Dhurrin said:
Theories are fun.
However, the point made by @Blockus is valid in that most of the revenue will come from the so-called whales.
Which is why the change to the CL makes no sense at all, since it hurts them the most. Sure, it could be a trick to get them to spend even more, but on the other hand, this is a good strategy to get those players feel insulted enough to just change to another game.
Click to expand...

I don't think Whales care. They want to be #1, and as long as they feel everybody is on equal footing, they'll just keep hitting the diamond button. I've met a few whales in games, and the general attitude has been, "Who cares how I want to spend my money?" I don't know if they're super rich (or like their parents are), don't understand how credit cards work, or what.

Btw, what does CL stand for?
 
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