Just decided to run bucketing for your data (2 cities) and my data (2 cities) separately. I only have about 600 datapoints so far for mine, but bucketing between high-frequency and low-frequency recipes already agrees between both sets almost exactly. This is a good thingUpdated data :
I mean, we can speculate whether something can fall into low frequency or high frequency pools, based on some circumstantial evidence (like other recipes in the same group). But ultimately what matters is what data shows, and for those recipes that are close to the cut off that's exactly what it means - that it may ultimately fall into either bucket, once we get more data. The farther it is from the cutoff, the less likely for it to happen (but may happen nonetheless).What about other recipes which remain close to the average in my data ? Pet food for dust relics is more likely to be in high-frequency pool, due to symmetry reasons with other Pet foods costing relics. Similarly, 2 Runeshards recipe is more likely to be in the lower pool. For 3KP, as 1KP is the only other recipe in higer pool, we can't guess without data. Is it more far to the average in your data ?
Finally, there's the case of supply windfall 15%. It used to be lower than average until I've got a ton of these recently. So what does your data say ?
Note : I think CR33% and SW100% are in the higher pool since other CRs and >25% SWs are high-frequency too.
I doubt it is a Spring item, unless they define Spring in a really weird way. Summer may make sense (and then we should see more instances in the coming months), but then I'd expect it to pop up starting June 1st or something like that.
Today :Supply Windfall 20% ×11, 15% ×12
And no, I didn't miscount SW20% as 15%. I double-checked all of them. Of course, this could be due to randomness (I already didn't get UUU for 2 months once), but is there any chance that probabilities from SW20% had been moved to SW15% (making it high-frequency) ? Especially, does anyone still get SW20% ?Supply Windfall 20% ×11, 15% ×34