Not screwed, at all, The GZ is a ring count not a province number count. So if you look at what ring you would be in with 130 provinces....You are good to clear that whole ring without any major negative impact
. If you go out one more ring you will still be at the outer edge of the gz the fights are harder and prices jump quite a bit but its still do-able. The next ring after that is where you will get robbed and beaten.
For dwarves you start in ring 7 and finish in ring 8. You can clear all of ring 8, which gives you a province count of 144 with little impact.Ring 9 is the outer edge of the gz for dwarves, so 180 provinces.
Ring7=too soft, Ring8=just right, ring9= too hard, Ring 10= beaten and robbed
So starting fairies based on the number on the chest- you start in ring 8 and finish in ring 9.
You can push into and clear ring 10 without too many problems fights are harder troop losses greater but you can still win...so outer edge of the gz for fairies is 222 provinces. ring8=too soft,
Ring9=just right, Ring10=too hard for most, ring11=orc wall.
Hope that helps
Edit: There is a very noticeable jump in difficulty and cost between rings. Even if your province count is 135 its very possible to have provinces open that are outside the gz, it is the ring they are in that matters. So if you stretch to reach a neighbor you could have provinces far outside the gz even if your province count is below what you need to exit a chapter.