Goods Imbalance

[ajqtrz]

Theoretically the market should correct the over-production by the producers realizing there is a glut and switching production. There is some legitimate need for cross-tier trades for newbies who haven't geared up yet and occasional need to level production. Also I'm sure some of the trades get clicked on accidentally by players in a hurry. But that should only account for a small portion. I have no explanation for why "advanced" players pump out 3rd tier goods. Classic scenario for inflation.

"Theoretically" is absolutely true when the value is free-floating. But here it isn't. It's restricted to the point where a 1:4 profit may not be enough to "shake lose" the T3 resources players are sitting on, especially if they also have plenty of T1 and T2 stored. The more something is "hoarded" the larger the profit margin needed to get the "hoarder" to release it. If he or she values it at a higher rate than the market will pay then it will be hoarded. In this case it may be that the T1 and T2 for which T3 would be traded are not, in the minds of the "hoarders" the value of T1 and T2 do not rise high enough for them to consider trading T3.

In addition, players reaching the last chapter conclusion may be restructuring their cities to produce a lot more AND sitting on those resources in anticipation of the next chapter. If this is right, then two things are probably true. We have fewer producers of the needed resource as some are absent from the market, and when the next chapter is released we should see those resources become more available. In other words, without something spend on people anticipate a future cost and begin saving when before, they spent. It might be this whole thing is simply a result of no further chapter growth at this time.

Finally, think of what would stimulate spending. Would not higher profits per trade? When, in the past I offered T3 for T2 at a discount -- usually 1000 T3 for 3500 T2, the trades would fly away. Now that doesn't work as well and I sometimes have to wait days or, lower the price to 1000 T3 for 3000 T2. This is market forces at work. If the market was free to set it's own ratio there would be great fluctuations, true, but they would be short lived as players bid up the price until enough producers jumped in to take advantage of the increased price and it came down again. That's how the market works when it's free.

So, I offer two things in this. A possible reason large producers might be "hoarding" T3 goods, and how an open market would remedy the situation a lot faster than an artificial one.

AJ

 

[Ashrem]

Have I got it now?

I think probably for that particular case, but it's overly simplified. Rank is one reason that some players have excess T3. There are other reasons. A non-exhaustive list:

1. As long as it takes less total space to convert supplies to goods via T3, some will continue to offer cross tier trades because it is profitable, whether by demand or by accident.
2. As long as more-or-less-clueless people don't realize they are producing Excess on a regular basis and realize they could do something about it, they will continue. It sometimes takes months for people to realize that now they are fighting more they don't need as many goods.
   
3. As long as some people can produce large amounts of T3 for no supplies, in the same space they could produce the same units of a lower Tier, they have no incentive to stop doing it, since even at 1:1, they come out at least even.
4. Once you cross the T3 threshold, there is no way to win an event building that produces anything but T3. they can not choose to replace their Orc nest with a building which will produce T1 or T2, which means converting that space to lower Tier production means spending supplies.

 

[DeletedUser20255]

When, in the past I offered T3 for T2 at a discount -- usually 1000 T3 for 3500 T2, the trades would fly away. Now that doesn't work as well and I sometimes have to wait days or, lower the price to 1000 T3 for 3000 T2. This is market forces at work.

AJ

I agree with 80% of what you said, 10% is over my head (possibly because I'm still in Fairies). I'll address the other 10%. Last week I offered 10,000 elixir for 15,000 scrolls and the same deal for silk. They expired. This week I'm offering 10,000 elixir for 10,000 scrolls and the same dear for silk. They have been up for two days no takers. The discounts you quote are way too shallow for my neighborhood. I get the principle. I just feel your example understates the problem at least in my neighborhood. Which adds to my growing feeling that all of this depends on local circumstances which is another cause of aberrant market effects.

 

[DeletedUser20951]

Which adds to my growing feeling that all of this depends on local circumstances which is another cause of aberrant market effects.

Partly, this is true, if you rely on neighbors for trading (I do) and have trouble with your regular trades being taken (I don't), but most of it has to do with tracking your production and expenditure of all three tiers (as @Ashrem indicated), and then adjusting your number of factories to meet your needs for each before you're in a bind. This comes as second nature to me now, seems completely self-evident, but surely, although I don't remember it, I likely struggled when I first started playing over four years ago (different account).

 

[DeletedUser20255]

Partly, this is true, if you rely on neighbors for trading (I do) and have trouble with your regular trades being taken (I don't), but most of it has to do with tracking your production and expenditure of all three tiers (as @Ashrem indicated), and then adjusting your number of factories to meet your needs for each before you're in a bind. This comes as second nature to me now, seems completely self-evident, but surely, although I don't remember it, I likely struggled when I first started playing over four years ago (different account).

By neighborhood I meant all those who see my offers and who's offers I see including my FS.
This feels like nailing jello to a tree. As soon as I feel I've got a handle on the solution people start telling me they don't have a problem.
I know what you mean about adjusting factories. The first time I sold something I felt like a failure. But it gets easier. Particularly if you see the drop in ranking points as a temporary negative (like taking medicine).

 

[DeletedUser2959]

My problem with cross-tier isn't people asking for 1T3:16T1 or 1T3:4T2, it's the opposite. So in order to maintain any sort of balance taking trades like that I need to build 64 T1 and 16 T2 then drop my 4 T3s. This is unfeasible. Even if I had room for that I'd need a lot more houses and workshops. I'm just not going to do that.

 

[DeletedUser20255]

My problem with cross-tier isn't people asking for 1T3:16T1 or 1T3:4T2, it's the opposite. So in order to maintain any sort of balance taking trades like that I need to build 64 T1 and 16 T2 then drop my 4 T3s. This is unfeasible. Even if I had room for that I'd need a lot more houses and workshops. I'm just not going to do that.

Wow! That's a hard problem. Based on the preponderance of posts here I've got to believe you're in the minority. Sorry about that. Hope you can find your way to a market that appreciates T1 and T2 goods the same way the rest of us do.

 

[Vergazi]

Maybe it isn't a bad neighborhood, but the practice that some players in later chapters do of offering cross-tier trades when so many now appear to look down on the practice. Much has been said of low chapter players offering cross-tier trades and then being accepted by late chapter "big fishes" who choose to help out newer players/cities. It's possible that multiple "big fish" see in their trader a fellow "big fish" posting page after page of cross tiers and, as a result, choose to just simply not trade with that player any longer. If one were to alienate many big potential trading partners in one's trader, even if it were unintentionally done, then truly poor would be one's trading prospects I suspect.

 

[DeletedUser2959]

I'll always take any trades from newer players in my area. I msg them too and tell them to only post zero star trades. I want people to succeed and hang around, and I have a huge stockpile of goods so it's no trouble for me. My main point is just that I've stopped taking cross-tiers where somebody offers me 1 T3 for 16 of my T1 or 4 of my T2 (except as noted). It's wholly unsustainable. I think the problem stems from some of the recent sets producing a lot of T3. Whatever the case may be, I'm just not taking them. I'll take every trade in my window as long as it isn't cross-tier. Been doing that for quite awhile and it sorta balances out.

You know what would be super useful? If we could choose which tier of goods we wanted to cater/negotiate with. Inno, get right on that please

 

[ajqtrz]

I agree with 80% of what you said, 10% is over my head (possibly because I'm still in Fairies). I'll address the other 10%. Last week I offered 10,000 elixir for 15,000 scrolls and the same deal for silk. They expired. This week I'm offering 10,000 elixir for 10,000 scrolls and the same dear for silk. They have been up for two days no takers. The discounts you quote are way too shallow for my neighborhood. I get the principle. I just feel your example understates the problem at least in my neighborhood. Which adds to my growing feeling that all of this depends on local circumstances which is another cause of aberrant market effects.

Yeah, things do vary across neighborhoods and fluctuate even in them. The point though, is that the system is structured and controlled so that it doesn't swing out of certain parameters (as set by the ratios). This means the game will bump up against those limits anytime things change in the structure of the game (like they do in the structure of all markets) and sometimes the movement will halt trading because everybody feels the value of what they are holding is worth the maximum that can be offered.

AJ

 

[Deleted User - 1254584]

I may have miss this in the discussion already. Out of curosity can someone explain to me how the ratio of 4:1 was determined for the trader? I ask because I did some comparison and at a certain point the production of T1, T2, and T3 goods is basically less than 2:1 or 1:1.
did some research online (all numbers below are from Elvenar Wiki) using my race (Elves) and boosted goods (Planks, Silk, Magic Dust) to compare production.
Planks Level 10 -- 78/day (317 for humans)
Silk Level 10 -- 235/day (317 for humans)
Dust Level 10 -- 395/day (same for humans)
This gives ratios of 3:1 between T1 and T2, 1.6:1 between T2 and T3, 5:1 between T1 and T3 goods in Elves.
Planks Level 18 -- 435/day (621 for humans)
Silk Level 18 -- 719/day (same for humans)
Dust Level 18 -- 719/day (same for humans)
I think this speaks clearly on ratios here.
Planks Level 27 -- 440/ 3hrs (same for humans)
Silk Level 27 -- 540/ 3hrs (same for humans)
Dust Level 27 -- 560/ 3hrs (same for humans)

When I started looking at the numbers I was not expecting to find the production numbers so close to each other across all of the tiers. Are there other factors that I might be missing that would support inno's reason for setting up the trader the way it is? Note: I didn't look at the lower levels and Chapters. The 4:1 might work there but it sure doesn't seem to work at the higher levels and chapters.
Edit: I did not take into consideration population, space requirements etc since right now my manufactories are all around the same size footprint wise.

 

[Vergazi]

@T6583 i have believed in the past and continue to believe that the 16:4:1 ratio is not based on anything other than IG had to pick some arbitrary ratio for the Trader that would discourage the whole panoply of problems that can afflict a game: gold companies, push accounts, inordinate transfers of goods from one account to another to just plain greed and abuse of the in-game economic environment. Until I get convincing evidence to the contrary I will continue to believe this is the case.

 

[DeletedUser17455]

I had a thought that might be relevant:

Because of the "stars" rating system, a player with excess T3 can post a 1:1 trade down to T2 in order to help themselves out. Folks will jump on such a trade. However, a player with an excess of T2 who wants to trade up to T3 who posts a 1:1 trade is given a 1 star rating. In my personal experience, I never even look at the 1 star trades. Even though both players are posting literally the same trade, one is considered generous and the other stingy.

This means that the only thing players who have T2 and want T3 can do is wait for good trades to come up. They can try to post "counter-offers" that they think are reasonable, but chances are their trades will show up on page 13 and be ignored.

@Ashrem I am no longer sure what I think. At the start of this thread I was pretty sure the "market forces" style arguments were correct, and that the "inno must intervene" style arguments were not. Now I'm not so sure. At first I thought "eh, just ignore the stars" but now that I can see this weird disparity where the "haves" post a trade and it is like "whoa! 3 stars! you're great" but when the have nots post the same trade it is like "gross, dude what are you doing?". Even though it is only aesthetic, I think it probably has a strongly detrimental effect on the market's ability to correct itself.

---

Hey @T6583! those numbers are not taking into account the space requirements. For example, my level 19 boosted manus are listed as

steel: 178 in 3 hours
crystal: 197 in 3 hours
elixir: 247 in 3 hours

These numbers seem close until you compare the sizes of the buildings. The building's footprint is only part of the story, if you want to know how many goods a building is producing relative to other buildings you need to also take into account the required population, culture, and supplies that these buildings consume.

My steel manufactory is only 3x5 but it has an effective area of about 24 tiles: It needs 9 extra tiles of population, culture, and workshops in order to function (and like, some roads).

My Crystal manufactory is 4x4 but it has an effective area of about 43 tiles: it needs and extra 17 tiles to support it.

My Elixir manufactory is 4x5 but it has an effective area of about 103 tiles: it is a massive hog!

So if 24 tiles of the steel industrial complex produces 178 in 3 hours, that's 7.4 steel per tile per 3 hours.

If 103 tiles of elixir produces 247 in 3 hours, that's 2.4 elixir per tile per hour.

So a natural ratio might be 3 steel to 1 elixir. (that's still WAY off the 16:1 ratio inno suggests)

 

[DeletedUser20255]

I may have miss this in the discussion already. Out of curosity can someone explain to me how the ratio of 4:1 was determined for the trader?

There is a lot of discussion in this thread and others about the Inno ratios of 16:4:1 being way out of whack based on production costs such as you quote. The right ratios are somewhere between 5:2:1 based on production costs and 2:1:1 based on temporary market conditions. Acceptance of these ratios is not universal. Several consider T2 to be worth more than T3 at least currently. I didn't check the math myself but I trust those that did.
As a consequence you can't trust the star-ratings except for in-tier trades. You have to do your own mental arithmetic to see whether a cross-tier trade is fair by your lights. This is part of the reason for the other thread bemoaning cross-tier trades.
Best advice is to produce and store healthy amounts of your boosted in each tier. Accept cross-tier trades if they meet your needs and values. Post cross-tier when you have to. Cross-tier downwards (eg offering T3 for T2) definitely need to be sweetened to 3 star rating. Cross-tier trades upwards are rarer. Don't sweeten them at all.2 star is more than generous.

 

[Sir Squirrel]

I think if I remember correctly the developers said they created the 16:4:1 ratio off of how many supplies it cost to make the good. They didn't really think it through as to space needed to produce each tier and trade at them ratios.

 

[Ashrem]

I think if I remember correctly the developers said they created the 16:4:1 ratio off of how many supplies it cost to make the good. They didn't really think it through as to space needed to produce each tier and trade at them ratios.

That conforms with my memory, and in a test a few minutes ago, I confirmed that Marble boost is 4.5 units per supply invested, while Gems boost is .274 units per supply invested. Roughly 16 times as many supplies (and coin) to produce T3 as T1.

 

[Deleted User - 1254584]

Is there any chance that the developers would be willing to re-evaluate how the trader works? I get the whole cost thing mentioned above with supplies and coins but it seems like there are so many other factors that affect things. I'm trying to give away T3 goods at this point. I'm fine with other goods it just that I have 3-4x the amount of T3 goods and I'm worried about deleting anymore T3 factories just incase this is a tempory thing as it wasn't very long ago when I was struggling to keep my T3 goods up.

 

[DeletedUser20255]

I'm trying to give away T3 goods at this point. I'm fine with other goods it just that I have 3-4x the amount of T3 goods and I'm worried about deleting anymore T3 factories just incase this is a tempory thing as it wasn't very long ago when I was struggling to keep my T3 goods up.

Welcome to the club. We've got jackets.
What you should do depends on your goals. If you're ranking points conscious you should avoid deleting factories but just avoid building up T3. If you want to keep your goods in balance I say delete some T3 and build up T1 and T2. I don't think the market is going to change any time soon.

 

[Ashrem]

Is there any chance that the developers would be willing to re-evaluate how the trader works?

If there is, we haven't succeeded in revealing it. the arbitrary star-value of trades has been a thorn in the side of players for as long as it has existed. The devs have displayed no interest in changing it.

 

[Deleted User - 1254584]

The devs have displayed no interest in changing it.

Well that kinda sucks. I'll just keep picking and choosing trades and offering T3 goods at 1:1.