Mighty Peach
Active Member
The recommendation for Spire Wizard is actually incorrect in this type of scenario. And obviously so.
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Your Elvenar Team
If this happens to you with Spire Wizard
- Thread starter Mighty Peach
- Start date
ajqtrz
Chef - loquacious Old Dog
Strange, before I looked at their recommendation I picked the same recommendation using my system. What's the problem? With two more choices you have at a one in three chance of completing it since the second roll eliminates or confirms the dust. If it's confirmed, great. If not then you have marble gems and elixer, a one in three chance. Since, in my method, the far left choice is more likely to be the one I suspect the chances to be about 1 in 2. And, of course, you can use a specter stone in place of the dust to make it 100% certain.
Last edited:
Mighty Peach
Active Member
The problem is with the recommendation for the 2nd turn.
We already know Ghost #1 is going to want Supplies. There is no debate there.
To give it Supplies with two turns left doesn't make sense because we can use that slot to eliminate another option for Ghost #2 to narrow it down even further and increase our odds of winning in the 3rd round.
We already know Ghost #1 is going to want Supplies. There is no debate there.
To give it Supplies with two turns left doesn't make sense because we can use that slot to eliminate another option for Ghost #2 to narrow it down even further and increase our odds of winning in the 3rd round.
quin629
Well-Known Member
Given the 1st round result you are positive that slot 1 will be the Tools. But your 2nd round choice isn't about being correct; it's about gathering information. In my 2nd round choice I would select the red Gem (because it has not been used yet) and then either dust, marble, or elixir - whichever I have most of. For this example, let's say I use dust.
Possible outcomes:
A. Nobody needs it for slot 1 & correct for slot 2 - in which case you are guaranteed to be correct in round 3 by using the Tools for slot 1
B. Right good wrong person for slot 1 & Nobody needs it for slot 2 - in which case you are guaranteed to be correct in round 3 by using Tools for slot 1 and your round 2 slot 1 guess for slot 2 this time.
C. Nobody needs it for both slot 1 & slot 2 - in which case for round 3 you use Tools for slot 1 (guaranteed correct) and then a true 50% chance for either marble or elixir in slot 2
. That 1 in 2 chance is better than your 1 in 3 chance.
Possible outcomes:
A. Nobody needs it for slot 1 & correct for slot 2 - in which case you are guaranteed to be correct in round 3 by using the Tools for slot 1
B. Right good wrong person for slot 1 & Nobody needs it for slot 2 - in which case you are guaranteed to be correct in round 3 by using Tools for slot 1 and your round 2 slot 1 guess for slot 2 this time.
C. Nobody needs it for both slot 1 & slot 2 - in which case for round 3 you use Tools for slot 1 (guaranteed correct) and then a true 50% chance for either marble or elixir in slot 2
. That 1 in 2 chance is better than your 1 in 3 chance.
Moho
Chef
Very good observation. That's how I always play too.
mucksterme
Oh Wise One
I always fight the spire
but i used to play a smaller city that i negotiated
in this situation i would put the supplies in the correct slot and then put gems in 2
but your logic makees more sense
i been learned something
thanks
BrinDarby
Well-Known Member
Its wrong, if tools/dust is used, And dust is not need'd
after that, then its a 33% chance to get the last one right,
not 52%......
The correct choice is Gems ( cause as some said it hasnt
been used yet ) , then I'd prolly add Marble. As also was
said dont fill slot 1 with tools till turn 3. This gives you a
straight 50% chance if say my marble And gems was wrong.
where that got 52% is beyond me, hahahahaha.
after that, then its a 33% chance to get the last one right,
not 52%......
The correct choice is Gems ( cause as some said it hasnt
been used yet ) , then I'd prolly add Marble. As also was
said dont fill slot 1 with tools till turn 3. This gives you a
straight 50% chance if say my marble And gems was wrong.
where that got 52% is beyond me, hahahahaha.
Killy-
Well-Known Member
It should be exactly 50% the way the spire wizard wants to do it (we can try 2 out of 4 goods). We get 75% chance with the better approach suggested, because we try 3 out of 4 (and if unlucky, we can finish for 25 dia).
Edit: Maybe there is some magic to be found to get to 52% if you consider all possibilities at the beginning, but shouldn't change too much.
Edit: Maybe there is some magic to be found to get to 52% if you consider all possibilities at the beginning, but shouldn't change too much.
BrinDarby
Well-Known Member
did I miss what that was, AJ ?
Silly Bubbles
You cant pop them all
The recommendation for Spire Wizard is actually incorrect in this type of scenario. And obviously so.
I don't think that you need Spire Wizard. It looks to me that you're doing quite fine on your own.
Flashfyre
Well-Known Member
Something the Spire Wizard helps one learn is that each spirit seems to "prefer" (as much as a digital creature can) certain offerings over others. For example, the Young Human and the Dwarf tend to accept coins or supplies more often, followed by T1 goods. While they will take other offerings sometimes, these 2 offerings win more often than not.
If we look at which spirits appear in the beginning encounters, compared to the ones encountered higher up the Spire, we can make educated guesses as to which type of offering is more likely to satisfy those spirits.
If we look at which spirits appear in the beginning encounters, compared to the ones encountered higher up the Spire, we can make educated guesses as to which type of offering is more likely to satisfy those spirits.
Yogi Dave
Well-Known Member
@quin629 I like your answer, but only @ajqtrz mentioned using a spectral stone. To me this is a perfect place to use one. Put the tools in slot 1 and a spectral stone in slot 2. If you want, you could still choose 2 goods to try to find the other needed good. If you do, great. If not, you can use a stone in slot 2.
By the way, you have a 50% chance of discovering the other good in the 2nd round since you are choosing 2 out of 4 items. If you learn nothing, you have a 50% chance of getting the right good on the 3rd round since you are choosing 1 out of 2 items. So, after round 1, you have a 75% chance of getting the correct goods for round 3. Not really bad odds. If you guess wrong, you now know what you need and 25 diamonds finishes it.
Like, @mucksterme, I mainly fight, but I'm tired at times or the troops aligned against me look too tough. As a result, I have a pile of stones to throw at the solution.
By the way, you have a 50% chance of discovering the other good in the 2nd round since you are choosing 2 out of 4 items. If you learn nothing, you have a 50% chance of getting the right good on the 3rd round since you are choosing 1 out of 2 items. So, after round 1, you have a 75% chance of getting the correct goods for round 3. Not really bad odds. If you guess wrong, you now know what you need and 25 diamonds finishes it.
Like, @mucksterme, I mainly fight, but I'm tired at times or the troops aligned against me look too tough. As a result, I have a pile of stones to throw at the solution.
ajqtrz
Chef - loquacious Old Dog
Yeah, maybe. That when you know what one of the slots will be, and you have 2 turns left, you can use the "known slot" to test an unknown resource, meaning a resource you aren't sure where it goes or if it's needed. It's a slight step in increasing the odds, but an important one I've never thought of doing. Nice!
AJ
BrinDarby
Well-Known Member
a bigger step than that, but glad you're
now thinking a new way....