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    Your Elvenar Team

Psychological vs Actual Statistics

ajqtrz

Chef - loquacious Old Dog
In another post, recently, someone suggested that the forums draw a larger proportion of unhappy players than are in the actual game. I thought it an interesting idea and wondered about it. And maybe that player is right. But maybe not. So I asked myself what it would actually take to know this was true...that the percentage of players in the forum who are "unhappy" is greater than the percentage of the players in the whole game who are "unhappy." Turns out, it would take a bit of work.

First, you'd have to define "unhappy." A broad definition might be: "I'm unhappy with at least one aspect of the game." And even that would mean defining if you mean "a little irritated," or "truly unhappy and ready to quit altogether." And at the narrower side you might define unhappy as "I'm right on the verge of rage quitting because every aspect of the games angers me greatly!" Thus, "unhappy" might include both a measure of the intensity of the emotion and the range of causes for that emotion. And that's just problem one.

Another problem is concluding the forums draw more unhappy players than happy. Not sure, but yes, a survey could be done. Unfortunately, it runs into the same problem as above...the definition of "unhappy."

And finally, you would have to do the same survey with the general player base. Unfortunately, the whole thing may be skewed because who answers surveys? I suspect, but have no actual data on the matter, that those of us who go to forums and express our opinions might be the types who also complete surveys more often. All of which takes me to the subject at hand: psychological statistics versus actual statistic.

An actual statistic is a count of something. It is a set of definitions, a set of recorded observations, and a mathematical analysis of that data. The definitions define what you are counting as X, Y, and Z. The collection of data says how many of X, Y, and Z you measured (via sight, sound or some other sense, directly or indirectly), in the set of observations you made. In the end you present the analysis as an analysis of that set of observations and expect your conclusions to be the same to some degree as anyone using the same definitions, recording the same observations under the same circumstances. In other words, you expect to some degree, that if the experiment you did were repeated many times there would be a high degree of agreement between the analysis you did of your observations and those done by others on their observations.

But of course, in the vast realm of human experience most things are never that carefully observed, so we rely upon an intuitive sense to measure most things. We say, "likely," "probably" and so on. These are not precise words exactly, but they do have statistical weight. "likely" and "probably" both say, at minimum, the predicted outcome is at least 50% plus some tiny fraction of the percent, going to be X rather than Y. But they can also mean 80% of the time it will be X rather than Y. Or 70% or 65%... or whatever, so long as it's greater than that minimum of 50%+a smidge. And that's why psychological statistic words are useful. They tell us not the actual number, but our sense of it. They are, in fact, not a measure of the thing, but a measure of our experience, and that, once removed, exactly because we don't usually record what we are experiencing.

So the idea that the forums draw a higher percentage of "unhappy" players than are in the general population of players may be true. Or it may not. The author of the sentiment may be right, but he may be wrong as well. What usually happens is that people either agree with him or not, and if they agree with him they support his conclusion. And if they don't they sometimes offer something like, "I find the people in the forums complain a lot less than the people in the game," an implied psychological statistic of their own!

The take away from this is simply to recognize that not a lot has actually been measured and even if your sense of something is strong, it may be you may not have the average experience. A bit of humility is always a good thing in discussion.

Just some thoughts triggered by a players comments.

AJ
 

Silly Bubbles

You cant pop them all
I think that there are some misconceptions about happiness. Somehow, it can be even frowned upon and confused with things like positivity or "fool's paradise". I'm a strong believer in pursuit of happiness and it has worked for me quite well whole my life. I'm not really sure what is going on, to me happiness is a very healthy mental state and should be wanted. I'm lost!
As with happiness statistics and the game, I'd look at characteristics and life situation of players, that could be a good indication.
 

ajqtrz

Chef - loquacious Old Dog
The forums are not the only social media used by elvenar. Comparing the comments in the forum to its other social media sites (like facebook, youtube) you will find the forum comments tend to be more critical and less upbeat.
While I applaud the effort, the same idea applies to this. How is the "happiness" or "disgruntledness" of other social media sites measured and how is the actual player base measured? "Tend to be" is not an actual measure, but a perception. As you can see, your comment is a psychological or intuitive measure, not an actual measure. I have a different view of the forum but it's the only social media place I go. Without some kind of formal measure, it's impossible to be certain who is right.

AJ
 

Katwick

Cartographer
GAHHHH YOU DID IT AGAIN. TL/DR
So don't. GAHHH says more about you, than anybody else. Most of us are grateful for thoughtful, well written commentary.
So the idea that the forums draw a higher percentage of "unhappy" players than are in the general population of players may be true.
Be careful to differentiate between:
  • This is Horrible so I'm Unhappy
  • This could be improved if only ........
It seems that complaining is how lazy people seek attention. Constructive criticism is hard work.

Always try to understand "them", before you try to get "them" to understand you. You'll learn more.

Disagreement.png
 

Iyapo

Personal Conductor
For the most part, the player base has no actual data to back up most of the opinions given here.

We think, we feel, we have anecdotal evidence. None of us know. Since we are all standing in the dark together I think constant repeated disclaimers are unnecessary.

When someone makes a really bold unsupported claim, they often get called out.
 

Sprite1313

Well-Known Member
But of course, in the vast realm of human experience most things are never that carefully observed, so we rely upon an intuitive sense to measure most things.
Yes, heuristics, conscious or otherwise, are very useful, since an 80% solution in time is preferable to a 100% solution too late.

I suspect, but have no actual data on the matter, that those of us who go to forums and express our opinions might be the types who also complete surveys more often.
My anecdotal experience is that surveys are most-often completed by those who are unhappy, frustrated or angry about something. Those who are happy or complacent don't take the time. It is the same mental pitfall that makes it so common to criticise and so uncommon to praise.

Be careful to differentiate between:
  • This is Horrible so I'm Unhappy
  • This could be improved if only ........
YES!

@Pheryll, I wonder if the sense of disparity of player sentiment between the forum and social media platforms has more to do with what the players want to get out of the platform. Not being on Facebook or YouTube, I don't know what the commentary is like, so this is more of a question - do those discussion get in-depth on game mechanics or are they more about the graphics, basic interface, chapter-specific challenges and players seeking fellowships, etc?

Maybe I am wearing rose-coloured glasses, but I think a lot of players on the forum, while expressing frustration with the game, also bring potential solutions. There are also a lot of posts about things we would like to see in the game (not just changes to the mechanics, but chapter themes, building designs, etc).

I know we like to complain that Inno doesn't listen, but look at all of the changes they HAVE implemented over the life of the game. Just in the last year they have added buildings to help caterers (okay, they may not be as powerful as we would like, but it is a step), troops boosts beyond just the MMM, ELR and UUU, and (probably) modified the tourney formula to make it not quite as expensive as it was when the change was first implemented.

Or, maybe those drawn to forum-style communications are just naturally more cantankerous ;)
 

Pheryll

Set Designer
@Pheryll, I wonder if the sense of disparity of player sentiment between the forum and social media platforms has more to do with what the players want to get out of the platform. Not being on Facebook or YouTube, I don't know what the commentary is like, so this is more of a question - do those discussion get in-depth on game mechanics or are they more about the graphics, basic interface, chapter-specific challenges and players seeking fellowships, etc?

If I were to profile the groups, then the forum goers would be the more invested ones, and the social media posters would be more of the "happy go lucky" crowd. By the way, as far as I know, I am not the one that AJ is citing for using the word "unhappy." I meant to give him comparable data sets so that a more mathematical comparison could be made, but it seems like my response was more taken as a rebuttal.
 

Myne

Oh Wise One
So don't. GAHHH says more about you, than anybody else. Most of us are grateful for thoughtful, well written commentary.

Be careful to differentiate between:
  • This is Horrible so I'm Unhappy
  • This could be improved if only ........
It seems that complaining is how lazy people seek attention. Constructive criticism is hard work.

Always try to understand "them", before you try to get "them" to understand you. You'll learn more.

View attachment 15760
How nice.
 

Ashrem

Oh Wise One
It could be true that my statement is wrong, but it's not like there a plethora of good contests or participation incentives so there aren't a lot of reasons to come to the forums, and the original assertion about it here came from a moderator who, it's true, might have had the same failings as any other human. It could well be one of those "everyone thinks it's true so it must be.

My own first post here was because I was frustrated by quests and not knowing if if I was going to cause myself trouble by refusing them. I consider myself to have been unhappy when I came to the forums and that unhappiness is why I came to the forums. We also saw a huge uptick in people joining after the great Bell-spire/library nerf, most of whom never returned after that settled out.

Several years abck you used to be able to see participation statistics and could pick people from the bottom end, who only posted five times or less then never returned. The number of those said something. Strip out every post made by one of the top two or three hundred participants, and I think you'd get some pretty good data.

I'd encourage anyone who thinks they were not unhappy with some aspect of the game to look at their first posts and see if they can remember what caused them to go through the hoops to join the forums.

When one person makes the same statement dozens of times, it's easy for others to imagine that more than one person made that statement and that it somehow reflects more than a single opinion.

From Page 21 of "Online Community Dynamics" by Zachary E. Arenson:

The negative side of reviewing community posts includes listening to disparaging messages or the dangers of gathering misleading information on public forums that are often not representative of the larger player community. Participants mentioned this issue numerous times, with the Community Manager participant noting, "… the pitfalls [for] people trying to develop community programs is getting sucked thinking that that is anything other than one data point out of many that should be considered."
 

ajqtrz

Chef - loquacious Old Dog
@Ashrem Yes, it could be wrong, but it could just as easily, be wrong. My point is not if your statement was wrong or right, but that it was a claim that relied upon an intuitive grasp but, like many such statements (including this very one when it says "like many") it is too often taken as a statistically based conclusion (which this one is not) rather than a claim based upon personal and unrecorded impressions. The point of my little missive was to raise the necessity of realizing when we are relying on our impressions rather than actual measures and to be, therefore, less defensive of them, as well as less certain.

Having said that, I have to say, my impression of your comments is that they are usually well thought out, articulate, and often right. ;>)

AJ
 

Silly Bubbles

You cant pop them all
I'd encourage anyone who thinks they were not unhappy with some aspect of the game to look at their first posts and see if they can remember what caused them to go through the hoops to join the forums.

I joined EN forum discussion once when I was tired of explaining to new players why old cross trades weren't popular trades and second time when I didn't get any bonus chests in Spire at all. I stayed because there was a lot of things that I thought needed to be said and weren't said. I do need breaks though to recharge as the negativity can rub off and just focus on enjoying the game and other things.
I joined US forum because there is more diversity here and therefore higher acceptance of different opinions. Many more posts here though so it can be hard for me to keep up with all discussions.
 

Gath Of Baal

Well-Known Member
Another problem is concluding the forums draw more unhappy players than happy. Not sure, but yes, a survey could be done. Unfortunately, it runs into the same problem as above...the definition of "unhappy."

My own first post here was because I was frustrated by quests and not knowing if if I was going to cause myself trouble by refusing them. I consider myself to have been unhappy when I came to the forums and that unhappiness is why I came to the forums. We also saw a huge uptick in people joining after the great Bell-spire/library nerf, most of whom never returned after that settled out.



My first post also and the reason I joined the forums was an unhappy complaint https://us.forum.elvenar.com/index.php?threads/gone-forever-means-gone-forever.5437/post-38785 I was not content with complaining to 24 other people in my fellowship and thought if I complained on the forums someone higher up the food chain would see it and possibly change what I was complaining about.

I stayed after that because I found myself enjoying reading others' views on the game, and I also noticed after every major change in the game several new members joining and first time posting to complain about one aspect or another for the current change at the time, most are gone now but there remain a few I see on here every now and then.

I am pretty sure if someone had the time and patience or want to, could deep dive into the forums plethora of ancient posts and pull up thousands of examples of players joining the forums and their first and maybe only post being an unhappy complaint or rant about an aspect or change to the game.

 

Yogi Dave

Well-Known Member
This thread made me chuckle. It seems pretty silly in many ways.

Some of the threads can get heated, especially ones involving changes Inno has made or, to a lesser extent, ideas and suggestions. Those would be expected to be more intense and have people acting like they are perhaps unhappy. Of course, that doesn't mean they are unhappy.

However, there are a lot of threads that don't seem like the people are least bit, just fun loving. Most of the threads in The Lounge are of that type. There are also fun ones in General Discussion. One of my favs is My Beautiful City. I just went and browsed it again because this thread reminded me of its existence. I feel good after going through it. There are quite a few feel-good threads. Some have been about what one sees in the event opening screens or hidden things in the city's background. Another was about Shenanigan's Emporium (sorry @crackie but I don't remember the name of your store). There have been poetry and song ones. So, if you are going to try and study about unhappy people in the forum, you need to include this style thread too. I should also include Questions and Help as not having unhappy people.

Perhaps, it's the threads you choose to read that makes one think the people are one type or another. If you only hang out in the ones where people are arguing about this or that, yeah, it can look like unhappy people. I don't mind argument (or discourse), but don't like when it turns into tit for tat post. It makes me unhappy to see a thread devolve to that. o_O Oh no, am I one of the unhappy ones?

Actually, my 1st post was after playing for 8 days and I saw a thread about the declinable cycling quest. I confessed to being a quest cycler, how I needed them and suggested alt. ways of showing them. Ah, the ignorant days. LOL It wasn't anger or unhappiness that brought me here. I was to learn about the game. From reading hundreds and hundreds of posts here, it seems more likely that people were brought in for info or just curious. I suspect most read a bit and silently went away. Those who stayed and posted don't seem to be unhappy. Whatever you wish to define 'unhappy' as and what metric to use to measure it.
 

crackie

Chef, Scroll-Keeper, Buddy's #1 Fan
I am not an unhappy person generally speaking, but I am personally a lot more hesitant to commend the devs these days. I had a month long campaign griping about Winter Lampions and then they finally removed them from the Mystery Object chest, but then they nerfed the diamonds so badly that I don’t even know when the last time I won 500:diamond: from my MA. Remember when everyone’s like, “The new overflow FA collections mechanics are wonderful! So great!” Then they went and gave us that coin badge FA where I can’t even complete one coin badge after visiting 27 pages of neighbors. They are free to make these changes, but we are also free to voice our displeasure in mindless carpal tunnel clicking for one coin badge bc it doesn’t add to game play and we can do other things with our free time. Also, the non-overflow collection version seems to linger and can sneak back anytime as beta has shown. They give the impression and pattern that the other shoe is always still waiting to drop so it’s much harder to be going around singing praises. Sometimes the live game has bugs that makes you wonder how that wasn’t caught before being pushed to live. Don’t do things to give people reasons to complain and they’ll magically be happier. I know, mind blowing stuff.

There are quite a few feel-good threads. Some have been about what one sees in the event opening screens or hidden things in the city's background. Another was about Shenanigan's Emporium (sorry @crackie but I don't remember the name of your store).
The Shenanigan Elves Holiday Gift Guide
 

Ashrem

Oh Wise One
Some of the threads can get heated, especially ones involving changes Inno has made or, to a lesser extent, ideas and suggestions. Those would be expected to be more intense and have people acting like they are perhaps unhappy. Of course, that doesn't mean they are unhappy.

However, there are a lot of threads that don't seem like the people are least bit, just fun loving. Most of the threads in The Lounge are of that type.
It's not about he overall tenor of the forums and their threads or the average or median of all posts, it's about why people come to any game's forums in the first place. Truly angry people show up, post once or twice to vent, then never come back. Then there's a whole range of frustration levels which cause people to come to the forums, but are not the reason they stay on the forums (like me).

The forums are not full of angry people, but they are full of people who post when they have a reason to post. A person who likes a post a little can hit like and move on. A person who doesn't like a post has no way to communicate they don't like it other than a reply. So if ten people like an idea, ten people don't care, and ten people dislike it, you get 10 likes, 10 "nothings,' two or three "what a great idea," and 10 "I don't like this." For the devs to translate that into what the average player thinks is not easy. Then throw in one person who really, really likes the idea, and you add 10 posts from one person in favour against everyone of the negative posts and translating gets even harder.
 

Silly Bubbles

You cant pop them all
I'm not sure how significant forums are to the developers, they do have access to the game data that tells them what is popular, what makes money, what works etc and that might not necessarily align with forums opinions. We are only a small percentage of the player base and don't have all the information about the game to make fully educated opinions.

But I do know that we're significant to the player base. That's why it's important to make sure that we provide correct information as things spread through the community very quickly and it's hard to correct it because none of us like to be wrong. To do that, there's a need for an environment where people aren't scared to disagree with someone, as long as they aren't rude about it, it's completely fine.

I don't think there is a need to prove how strongly we feel about something but there's definitely a need to explain why we feel certain way to give usable feedback that might or might not be helpful to the developers. It's still definitely worth a shot and let's hope for the best.
 

Yavimaya

Scroll-Keeper
I came here due to I became a little obsessed with the game and wanted to be one of the "cool" players and in the "in-crowd" of information. ROFL!!!!! Yes.... that is my honest and a little bit embarrassing truth to how I got here. Lol.
 
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