Rune Algorithm Redux

[LutherTheHairy]

What is the algorithm used for determining which Rune Shard. is awarded when a province is completed or in tournaments or event prizes? (Rune shard = the pieces that can complete a rune in a wonder's wheel, as opposed to rune shard fragments which take 10 to complete a rune).

It seems like for each pair of wonders that I unlock, one gets a lot more shards relative to the other...too much so for the distribution to be random. (this includes pairs where I have not built the wonder.).

Not counting the ones I broke, I have received the following shards since I began playing about 6 months ago

55 Tome of Secrets
96 Golden Abyss

36 Endless Excavation
81 Needles of the Tempest

66 Sanctuary (Monastery if you are an elf)
34 Bell Spire (Crystal Lighthouse)

10 Watchtower Ruins
5 Thrones of High Men

The only one I have built is Sanctuary. In fairness on that one I am actively biasing my AWKP help to Sanctuaries because I want more of those. The other pairs I have not earned many from help and doubt there is a bias.

This distribution is not random. The odds of this distribution amongst the Tome/Abyss pair if it was random is VERY small. (Stretch my combinatorics knowledge and I am unsure if my 1 in ~4500 is correct). The others are also lopsided.

So clearly some algorithm is being used. Anyone have any insights?

@MinMax Gamer @SoggyShorts

(Algorithms were briefly discussed nearly 3 years ago, but did not reach a conclusion)

 

[SoggyShorts]

This distribution is not random. The odds of this distribution amongst the Tome/Abyss pair if it was random is VERY small. (Stretch my combinatorics knowledge and I am unsure if my 1 in ~4500 is correct). The others are also lopsided.

I think it's better than 1 in 1,000
The odds of getting at least 96 Heads out of 151 coin tosses is better than 0.05% so 1 in 2,000, but I assume it would also be seen as lopsided if you got 96 tails instead. The odds of getting either 96+ heads or 96+ tails is better than double.

https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/coin-flip-probability

Edit: as for the rest of it, I have to go with Occam's razor. The easiest way to do it is random, and I see no motive for inno to spend time, money and talent they might not even have to do it any other way.

 

[Deleted User - 1178646]

What is the algorithm used for determining which Rune Shard. is awarded when a province is completed or in tournaments or event prizes? (Rune shard = the pieces that can complete a rune in a wonder's wheel, as opposed to rune shard fragments which take 10 to complete a rune).

It seems like for each pair of wonders that I unlock, one gets a lot more shards relative to the other...too much so for the distribution to be random. (this includes pairs where I have not built the wonder.).

Not counting the ones I broke, I have received the following shards since I began playing about 6 months ago

55 Tome of Secrets
96 Golden Abyss

36 Endless Excavation
81 Needles of the Tempest

66 Sanctuary (Monastery if you are an elf)
34 Bell Spire (Crystal Lighthouse)

10 Watchtower Ruins
5 Thrones of High Men

The only one I have built is Sanctuary. In fairness on that one I am actively biasing my AWKP help to Sanctuaries because I want more of those. The other pairs I have not earned many from help and doubt there is a bias.

This distribution is not random. The odds of this distribution amongst the Tome/Abyss pair if it was random is VERY small. (Stretch my combinatorics knowledge and I am unsure if my 1 in ~4500 is correct). The others are also lopsided.

So clearly some algorithm is being used. Anyone have any insights?

@MinMax Gamer @SoggyShorts

(Algorithms were briefly discussed nearly 3 years ago, but did not reach a conclusion)

It sounds lame but it's really a "beginner" issue.
at a certain point it's kinda mood what rune you get anyway.

The best way to get what you want is often the tournaments for broken runeschards, and timing "normal" wonders for which you have enough runeshards anyway. the further you get in the game the more runes you unlock making the odds more difficult.
Make some agreeements with fellows / friend if you really want certain runes by trading KP in eachothers wonders
Tournaments are your best friend when it comes to wonders.
And if you play long enough anything related to wonders becomes mood.

Spoiler

 

[Vigali]

It's also very possible that we're not talking about a single algorithm or set of probabilities, but multiple. For instance, it may be the case that finishing provinces have a near-equal chance at runes for all of the AWs you've unlocked, but that tournaments are weighted toward specific AWs depending on which chapter you're in.

Might be worth asking folks to capture some data on the next couple tournaments tracking what runes they earned, what AWs they have unlocked, and what AWs they have built.

 

[Lelanya]

It's also very possible that we're not talking about a single algorithm or set of probabilities, but multiple. For instance, it may be the case that finishing provinces have a near-equal chance at runes for all of the AWs you've unlocked, but that tournaments are weighted toward specific AWs depending on which chapter you're in.

Might be worth asking folks to capture some data on the next couple tournaments tracking what runes they earned, what AWs they have unlocked, and what AWs they have built.

Vigali you are on the right track. This WAS changed, I want to say, about 8 months ago. Check the Release Notes.

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

Might be worth asking folks to capture some data on the next couple tournaments tracking what runes they earned, what AWs they have unlocked, and what AWs they have built.

I doubt that there are many (any?) people who care enough about this. Just as @CrazyWizard said, this is not an issue for mid game and later. And early game players should really be focusing on other things.

 

[Deleted User - 1178646]

Vigali you are on the right track. This WAS changed, I want to say, about 8 months ago. Check the Release Notes.

not really

The tournaments, world map provincies and the tournament end prizes reward the same runes, all of them reward at random any of your unlocked runes.

In the past the tournament end prize was different (and only the end prize) as it could reward at random any of the runes that where in the game, including wonders you did not yet unlock.
This was changed and all parts now use the same randomiser.

 

[LutherTheHairy]

Mostly I am randomly curious, but I think it could make the difference for me between deciding to build one wonder and another. If I want to focus on leveling up a particular wonder, I don't want to select one where I am constantly going to be waiting months every 5 levels to accumulate enough rune shards or broken shards to upgrade it.

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

Mostly I am randomly curious, but I think it could make the difference for me between deciding to build one wonder and another. If I want to focus on leveling up a particular wonder, I don't want to select one where I am constantly going to be waiting months every 5 levels to accumulate enough rune shards or broken shards to upgrade it.

Outside of leveling from L1 to L6, it would be really hard to see a case (at least later game) when acquiring enough KP for 5 levels would take less time than getting enough runes/broken shards. It can't possibly take months. And with broken shards farming this can be done on-demand.

 

[GlamDoll]

as for the rest of it, I have to go with Occam's razor.

^^^ , since I could only like this once.

 

[SoggyShorts]

Mostly I am randomly curious, but I think it could make the difference for me between deciding to build one wonder and another. If I want to focus on leveling up a particular wonder, I don't want to select one where I am constantly going to be waiting months every 5 levels to accumulate enough rune shards or broken shards to upgrade it.

I'm with @MinMax Gamer on this.
I just decided to dump all of my stored KP into my timewarps over the past month, bringing them up from 11 to 30 and I only had runes for level 16.
Still, I had no problem at all filling the rings at 20 and 25 because the tournament gives so many and I was able to smash runes for wonders that I don't want and use those too.
It only takes ~20 runes to fill from scratch if you start with a full bar.

Spots 1-5 need around 8​

Spot 6 uses the full bar​

Spot 7&8 use around 12​

Spot 9 uses the full bar again​

If you have enough runes to smash on bad wonders for a full bar then you can probably do it with 12-14
If you time it with a tournament to fill another bar then you can likely get away with fewer than 10 runes.

My personal best was starting with one rune I KP swapped with a FS member to grab the top chest which gave me 4 more runes, all of which went right in without breaking. Then I used my already full bar (from the previous tournament) for #6.
Then I used the tournament and smashed enough runes on Enar's, Maze, Thrones, and lighthouse for 3 more bars

 

[LutherTheHairy]

I think it's better than 1 in 1,000
The odds of getting at least 96 Heads out of 151 coin tosses is better than 0.05% so 1 in 2,000, but I assume it would also be seen as lopsided if you got 96 tails instead. The odds of getting either 96+ heads or 96+ tails is better than double.

One in 1000 if shard odds were equal for all wonder pairs. That is still rare, and ALL my wonder pairs are lopsided. So, something is up. Maybe no practical matter, but I will always wonder.

thanks for all your insights and thoughts.