• Dear forum visitor,

    It looks as though you have not registered for a forum account, or are not signed in. In order to participate in current discussions or create new threads, you will need to register for a forum account by clicking on the link below.

    Click here to register for a forum account!

    If you already have a forum account, you can simply click on the 'Log in' button at the top right of your forum screen.

    Your Elvenar Team

Snow Flurry Probabilities (GP's and Bldgs)

DeletedUser3489

Guest
And while we're at it ... look at the new thread: 3 glacier gardens from 42 large gift boxes opened?
 

DeletedUser188

Guest
My concern is that the percentages that are advertised may not reflect reality.
I have been playing other inno games for over 4 years and finished about 75 events
The % that are displayed next to prizes are meaningless and aren't based on reality
They are for display purposes only
 

SoggyShorts

Mathematician par Excellence
but if ya factor in all three of my outliers
But they are already factored in... If you didn't get buildings you HAD to get something else.
As in my above example if you only got heads 13 times out of 46 coin flips you'd also get 33 tails.
Yes, both are away from average but you can't count them as separate data points.

While it is possible that the developers either lied(why?), or made a mistake when posting the % chances that they programmed(doubtful), no amount of data here could prove that- less than 0.02% of players visit the forums.

Those that get "average" results or better are far less likely to come here and post. On my beta account I should have gotten 14 buildings with the snowflakes that I have spent, but instead have gotten 20. The difference is no one would make a thread about that.
 

Ashrem

Oh Wise One
Random is random. The most consistent thing you can say about random sequences is that any selected run within the sequence that is less than the available options (so 100 for this example) will be less likely to appear random than to appear not random. A sequence of 46 percentile generations has almost 0 chance of coming close to matching the expected distribution. it would actually be much, harder to find someone with 46 boxes who's results came close to expectations.

There is an apocryphal tale among mathematicians that if several groups of people are told to list random numbers while the adjudicator can't see them, one group by selecting their numbers manually so as to appear random, and the others by actually generating them randomly, the adjudicator can, almost without exception, identify the group that picked their numbers by looking for the sequence that looks closest to expected distribution.

(edit: an easier to confirm test, would be to select items that total 50% of the expected result, and see how many people got close to half of their results within that group. For the small box that would be (for instance relics or Rune shards, vs anything else. For the Big box, relics or snow flakes, vs anything else. This requires tracking free snowflaks as a result, not just adding it to your rolls)
 
Last edited:

SoggyShorts

Mathematician par Excellence
As I posted in another thread
The first building I went for was the Snowy Charming Tree, and I wanted 4 of them. took me 6 boxes to get all 4
The chances of me getting such a good result are
0.2197265625%
math link

If the odds of getting a daily exclusive building are indeed lower than advertised, how astronomical were my results?

EDIT: @Kedlubna the chance of you getting as low a result as you did is
8.17%
math link
It does suck though, and you do have my sympathy.

The % that are displayed next to prizes are meaningless and aren't based on reality
They are for display purposes only
But why? There is no motive for inno to do that. When programming something to randomly select an outcome you have to enter in a range, so there is absolutely a % chance for each roll, and I can't imagine a reason to lie about those chances.
Getting results that are different from the exact statistical average is expected.
To even come close to having enough data points to detect a lie you would need to get the results from the 100,000 other players that did those 75 events over the last 4 years, and still that might not be enough.
 
Last edited:

Ashrem

Oh Wise One
Blew my 4600+ snowflakes to prove my earlier point. 39 rolls (couldn't come up with a 40th roll, sadly)
prize, quantity

Garden 8
200sf 1
12 elix 4
12 dust 7
12 gems 4
5 runes 6
140 sf 5
25 kp 4

Out of 39 rolls (large box), 21 were either relics or snowflakes (50% combined), 18 were other things. Only 1 away from being as close to 50/50 as an odd number can get.

When I break it differently: Gardens, Runes, and 140 Snowflakes (50% combined) vs everything else, it breaks 19 to 20, so exactly average.

When I break my 100 into Dust, gems, garden and 200 sf (52% combined) I get 20-19, which is exactly average again.

Mathematically, my rolls are as close to expected distribution as it is possible to expect, even though individual items may vary significantly (like dust)

(edit to roll in second post, I hope)

But why? There is no motive for inno to do that.
In general, human beings are inclined to prefer explanations of malevolent interference over bad luck. It's clearly reflected in how a recent candidate was so successful in convincing people how to vote.
 
Last edited:

DeletedUser2191

Guest
I'll post my results of both my cities, though the amount of rolls used is limited (my choice when to stop). I'll let the mathematicians see how this figures against the % values visible in game versus the various comments suggested.

Felyndral - 8 rolls

3 x glacier garden
1 x 200 snowflakes
2 x 12 gem relics
2 x 25 kp

Winyandor - 10 rolls

4 x glacier garden
2 x 12 elixir relics
2 x 140 snowflakes
1 x 5 runes
1 x 25 kp
 

DeletedUser5800

Guest
I wanted 4 in 12 rolls, it took 14... :( ...and I only got 680 snowflakes back and 75 Kp... :D
1 25 kp
2 140 sf
3 25 kp
4 200 sf
5 Garden
6 Garden
7 12 d.relics
8 25 kp
9 Garden
10 140 sf
11 12 e.relics
12 12 e.relics
13 200 sf
14 Garden
 

Ashrem

Oh Wise One
Across all cities/worlds where my wife, and a friend and I are playing, we opened a total of 124 large boxes, the numbers (from my previous post about breaking into halves) we were:

%
expected / received
50 / 51.6
50 / 49.2
52 / 52.4

As anticipated, the larger the sample, the closer the actual numbers come to expectations. I see no measurable bias that makes me think the developers are doing the randoms incorrectly, whether accidentally or on purpose. Individual items were all over the map in terms of expectation vs reality, but the 50/50 split in 3 different arrangements was pretty much bang on. Widest single variation was 200 snowflakes, with one person getting 4 in 30 boxes, while another got 1 in 39 boxes and yet another got 0 in 33 while the expectation would be 2.1, 2.7, and 2.3)

124 large boxes opened:
Garden / 28 -> (6/30, 4/22, 10/33, 8/39)
200sf / 6
12 elix / 11
12 dust / 17
12 gems / 14
5 runes / 21
140 sf / 12
25 kp / 15

Even across all cities, the individual numbers still had significant variation, with 200sf at 69% of expectation, and 5 Runes at 141% of expectation.
Percent
Expected/Actual
25 / 22.58%
07 / 4.84%
10 / 8.87%
10 / 13.71%
10 / 11.29%
12 / 16.94%
13 / 9.68%
13 / 12.10%

tldr: Nothing to see here, move along.
 
Last edited:

Heymrdiedier

Active Member
i wanted to go for the gardens so opened up small boxes, ended up opening 220 boxes with less then 6000 snowflakes to begin with:

garden: 20 : 9% / 7%
3 mabrle relics: 22 : 10% / 12%
3 steel relics: 17 : 7.7% /12%
3 wood relics: 21 : 9.5% / 12 %
5kp: 39 : 17.7%/ 13%
50 flakes : 29 : 13.3%/13%
90 flakes: 43: 19.5%/ 17%
rune: 29: 13%/14%

so got lucky alot i guess, less bad rewards, more good rewards and the neutral rewards are as expected.

ended up with 450 /800 for last rewards btw.
now the big puzzle on where to place all those gardens.
 

SoggyShorts

Mathematician par Excellence
50 flakes : 29 : 13.3%/13%
90 flakes: 43: 19.5%/ 17%
ended up with 450 /800 for last rewards btw.
So you won enough snowflakes to open almost 100% more boxes, and still pretty much zero chance at third prize.
Imagine being a player that DID get enough to open the third prize (0.2% chance)
It would have to be
90,90,90 garden, 50,50,90,50, KP, 90,90,90,50, rune,90,50,50,90,50 relic and repeat until you opened almost 300 boxes lol
 

DeletedUser5800

Guest
Imagine being a player that DID get enough to open the third prize
Oh I'm imagining it! Positive chaos reinforcement at it's finest! On all big boxes and currently running on the luckier side of the %, I only need to get the 200 SF 20 of the remaining 27 rolls I'll do. (give or take a half roll) It's totally going to happen. :rolleyes:
 

qaccy

Well-Known Member
On live, I have 2 cities ready to go "all in" for winter stars using the smallest bets. I am hoping for 10 stars at least in each world. I don't care about any of the 3 grand prizes lol.

Why wouldn't you care about the grand prizes? All 3 of them are better than any of the other buildings.
 

DeletedUser3297

Guest
Because the get progressively larger.

It's much easier to fit an efficient 3x3 into city planning than a bulky 4x4
 

DeletedUser2424

Guest
I think what they were saying is they don't care about a 1% better chance of getting the GP. It's a great building if you were able to get it...
 

DeletedUser5800

Guest
Spoiler Alert... I came about 200 globes short of that last thing. :eek: I blame this threads grip on reality.
 

Attachments

  • furry done.JPG
    furry done.JPG
    164.9 KB · Views: 94

DeletedUser2947

Guest
The snow flurry probabilities are a travesty, a joke, a sham. I will be starting a separate thread about this.
 

DeletedUser2424

Guest
My results from today. I did have an extra 2500 snowflakes from diamond purchases during on of their specials.

2016-12-31_21-52-20.png


Based on the unscientific sample size posted here it seems better results are occurring with the small boxes. I went with the large and it does seem with the 2500 extra flakes i got from diamonds I am getting the GP3 so guess it's gonna work out for me.
 

DeletedUser2855

Guest
@fasdfTTT I had almost 8000 think some 300 missing for full 8k snowflakes, i spent all at once got 13 winter stars and am 750/800 to get 3th prize all ready got 170 snowflakes and 5 days till end so even with 7700 snowflakes chance to get 3th prize is 100% you can correct math ;)
 

SoggyShorts

Mathematician par Excellence
@fasdfTTT I had almost 8000 think some 300 missing for full 8k snowflakes, i spent all at once got 13 winter stars and am 750/800 to get 3th prize all ready got 170 snowflakes and 5 days till end so even with 7700 snowflakes chance to get 3th prize is 100% you can correct math ;)

Lol, nope, that's not how math works.
If I say the chance of flipping a coin and getting heads is 50%, just because you got heads in 1 try doesn't mean the odds were actually 100%
 
Top