There's random and then there's Inno-Random?

[sam767]

This has been percolating in my mind for months. I've alluded to it in the past when I joke that we are all in some kind of a huge psychology experiment.
What is finally prompting this post is today I was running my event currency to get KPs to advance my technology tree, This worked well and then I deployed a BUNCH of portal profits to get the goods needed to buy the technology (CH15 - I want the Forest Ranger for Scrolls.). Then the next three 160 rolls came up portal profits. I think that this is could be an adaptive rewards system. Inno sees I'm using PPs so gives me even though my inventory will be fine until CH21 or so.

Another example is on the spire. If I spend diamonds in a level, I think my chances of getting diamonds on the last boss are much higher. Which really sucks in the Lab because I really need that DA.

So I suspect that when Inno assigns a percentage, it is not a true random number but is the result of some algorithm averaged over their player model.

What say you?

 

[GlamDoll]

Not gonna lie, I am not sure of what point, or how many you are trying to make. I usually can decode/decipher what someone meant, but I am lost here. Please streamline it, or something. Thank you!

 

[sam767]

This is a post for everyone who distrusts the percentages that Inno assigns to various events.
For example summiting the spire and 3 gold chests. Chances of NOT winning a DA. '9*.8**4 or == 36%.
Chance of doing this 4 spires in a row == 1.6%.
Something is happening across multiple cities with DAs. This is my focus.
This is a thread for all of us to vent on our statistical anomalies

 

[DeletedUser22644]

Your Stats are wrong I have 8 DA's, in my Summoning Tab, so it must be as simple as I stole yours, just before you went to collect.

Otherwise Sam is saying INNO is using google analytics to determine based on what you did for what you need or it thinks you need.

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

For example summiting the spire and 3 gold chests. Chances of NOT winning a DA. '9*.8**4 or == 36%.
Chance of doing this 4 spires in a row == 1.6%.

OK, I'll bite. Where did you get 3 gold chests from? That's way above expectations. Total number of bonus chests for the full Spire run is about 6.3. I don't know the exact percentages for different bonus chests, but it seems that gold chests are about 20-25% of all bonus chests. So you'd expect about 1.5 gold chests per spire run. Which makes chances of not winning a DA on any particular full run 0.9*0.8*0.8^1.5 = 0.51, so pretty much 50:50. So chances of not winning any in 4x Spire runs are about 6%, which is certainly possible, and considering that you observe multiple 4x Spire runs actually quite likely for some stretches.

Another way to look at these ballpark calculations is that you'd expect 1 DA per 2 weeks on average, over long periods of time. This is how my DA stock did over the last 20 weeks:

Expected increase was about +10, and that's pretty much what I've got. There were some dry spells, and then there was a run when I've got 3x DAs on the same Spire level. But over that period of time the total results are pretty much bang on.

 

[DeletedUser25004]

i have 11 DA in stock, and i get them pretty often, i would actually prefere to get less of them.

 

[Risen Malchiah]

I've often felt the randomness wasn't so random in other aspects of the game. Ever try farming rune wheels for shards? To me it feels as though the random number cycles around the wheel (rather than picking a number when I click). I've tried timing my clicks. I'm not perfect so it doesn't always work, but I can sometimes time my clicks so the same runes hit multiple times in a row. I once had a string with 7 hits in a row on the same 2 filled runes. On the 8th, I waited a split second longer and got an empty rune. Not science, unless feelings and superstition count, but hey, sometimes I *feel* like I can use it to my advantage.

 

[sam767]

OK, I'll bite. Where did you get 3 gold chests from?

Yeah, I understand 3 golds is way above average. That's what makes it particular;y annoying. I want to use a DA every week because I mostly auto-fight to 5K in every tournament (2x45ish + 4x9). For a long time I was getting on average 1 DA each spire run. Then they dropped Gateway boss from 20% to 10% and life has not been the same since.

 

[mikeledo]

I am a bit of a gambler and notice odds and chance. My feeling from observation is that electronically generated randomness is less random than a dice roll. It appears the computer gets stuck in a cycle of randomness, repeating patterns that would not occur naturally. We know INNO had to adjust the random quest cycle because the same quest would too frequently repeat itself.

 

[Kekune]

In a funny turn of events obviously caused by me reading this thread today, I got three gold mystery chests in the first 8 spire chests this morning. Only one contained a DA.

 

[Darielle]

OK, I'll bite. Where did you get 3 gold chests from? That's way above expectations. Total number of bonus chests for the full Spire run is about 6.3. I don't know the exact percentages for different bonus chests, but it seems that gold chests are about 20-25% of all bonus chests. So you'd expect about 1.5 gold chests per spire run. Which makes chances of not winning a DA on any particular full run 0.9*0.8*0.8^1.5 = 0.51, so pretty much 50:50. So chances of not winning any in 4x Spire runs are about 6%, which is certainly possible, and considering that you observe multiple 4x Spire runs actually quite likely for some stretches.

Another way to look at these ballpark calculations is that you'd expect 1 DA per 2 weeks on average, over long periods of time. This is how my DA stock did over the last 20 weeks:

View attachment 8076

Expected increase was about +10, and that's pretty much what I've got. There were some dry spells, and then there was a run when I've got 3x DAs on the same Spire level. But over that period of time the total results are pretty much bang on.

I've been playing the spire for a couple of months, and most of the time hit at least part of the lab (but only hit the very top of the lab once.) I've gotten one DA. I guess I'll need to get consistently up to the top in order to get more DAs (although the one I got was not from the run that I completed.) Sigh ... statistics never seem to match up with my performance. I'm either an odd ball or ... okay, I'm an odd ball.

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

and most of the time hit at least part of the lab (but only hit the very top of the lab once.

If you haven't been hitting the very top consistently, then your chances would be significantly worse as there is a 20% DA option in the final chest.

 

[Darielle]

IF you haven't been hitting the very top consistently, then your chances would be significantly worse as there is a 20% DA option in the final chest.

Yep, that's what I figured. Thanks for confirming. I think I'm going to have to get a bit further along before I can hit it consistently, but at least that's a goal I look forward to.

 

[sam767]

I guess I was spoiled by a good run in the gold chests because I had a DA every week in two cities. Now I am afraid to open them. As for the final boss - it seems to me that if I spend diamonds convincing in the lab, the 125 diamond reward is almost a certainty. That's what I mean by adaptive rewards (and associated probabilities).

 

[DeepTerminal]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anecdotal_evidence