Hi
@Lleddirs and welcome to the forums!
This post got really long, but here's what I'd do. I took a look at your city (I think, lol! I chose the Human city on Sinya Arda on ElvenStats, then imported your city to ElvenArchitect). Since you said you still need to complete provinces to unlock the chest for Ch5:
I don't think overscouting is your issue. You are at a tough spot in early chapters where fighting can be difficult; most players get through this spot by negotiating on the world map, but you have a definite goods issue and that's what I'd address first in your situation:
You are boosted in steel, scrolls, and elixir. You have 4 (lvl 8) steel, 3 (lvl 8) marble and 2 (lvl 9) planks for Tier 1 goods; 4 (lvl 6) scrolls, 1 (lvl 6) crystal and 1 (lvl 5) silk for Tier 2 goods; 3 (lvl 3) elixir, 1 (lvl 4) dust and 1 (lvl 4) gems for Tier 3 goods plus a Traveling Merchant III (Traveling Merchants are not as efficient as your boosted factories and trading for non-boosted). Since you're nearing the end of the research tree for Ch4, you should have unlocked the ability to have T1 goods at lvl 15, T2 goods at lvl 9 and T3 goods at lvl 7. I doubt you have a very high boost % since you don't seem to play the tournaments very much (best source of relics to get those boosts up). But, even with lower level boosts, building non-boosted factories is a significant loss; you could use that population, culture and space to have higher levels of your boosted factories and could then even trade at a significant discount for your non-boosted goods and still come out better than by trying to make those goods with non-boosted factories. If you sold off your non-boosted factories, you'd get back the pop and culture they're using and be able to use that to upgrade your boosted factories to the maximum, increasing the amount of goods you make and can trade for the other goods you need. Your FS there has a wide range of players in different chapters, with 7 of the active players in Ch10+, so trading for the non-boosted goods should not be a problem. If it is, that's a whole different problem you'd need to address.
The second thing I'd address is your military training queues. You will have more room, so I'd look to upgrade those as I could. The 3 (lvl 8) armories can be upgraded to lvl 15. That will increase your training size and extend the total time of your training queues. You should also be able to upgrade your lvl 8 barracks (lvl 9 opens that 5th training slot). Then, alternate upgrading armories/barracks as your pop/culture/space allows. The goal there should be to have a total training time high enough that it doesn't run out when you're away from the game (usually shoot for ~9hrs) and you'll be training something all the time. It's really hard to train enough units to replace losses when your queues are idle several hours/day. This could make your Training Grounds time really long, and those dogs are better than your barbarians, but that's only one troop so you'd still be able to train them 24/7. Those 1 star Dryads are not nearly as good as your 2 star crossbowmen. Even if you're unable to use combat much, training them is a great way to have a good inventory of troops as you get more squad size upgrades (which will cause your total number of squads to go down since there are more units/squad making each squad stronger) and future upgrades that will apply your already trained units as well as future units trained.
That's a lot of info to process, so I'll stop here. Ask questions as you try to absorb all this. And don't forget to have fun with it!