Which chest is best for Time boosters?

[Risen Malchiah]

For this winter event, I really only want time boosters and nothing else. Maybe a Frozen Shipwreck. I know the math is typically better for small chests, but what about for time boosters specifically?

Small chest = 50 keys = 17% for a 5h booster + 30% for a reroll = 47% chance for a good result
Medium chest = 90 keys = 17% for an 8h booster + 24% for a reroll = 41% chance for a good result
Large chest = 140 keys = 13% for two 14h boosters + 20% for a reroll = 33% chance for a great result

I really want to open the large chests for the 2x 14h boosters, but in the back of my mind, I'm wondering whether the greater likelihood of getting a good result with the small chests would be better. Does 47% (with tons more rerolls) of 5h boosts beat out 33% (with less rerolls) for the much greater 2x14?

Also, I don't suppose there's any chance the 3x20h boosters will make an appearance again? If so, I'm opening everything on that day.

 

[Pheryll]

Here is my table from the last event. The probabilities do not look like they have changed.

Hazelnut calculations	Small	Medium	Large

[TR1][TD]Hazelnuts per chest[/TD][TD]28.2[/TD][TD]61.4[/TD][TD]107.8[/TD][/TR1]
[TR2][TD]Hazelnuts per sprout[/TD][TD]5.64[/TD][TD]6.14[/TD][TD]5.39[/TD][/TR2]
[TR1][TD]Hazelnuts per rune shard[/TD][TD]282[/TD][TD]204.667[/TD][TD]269.5[/TD][/TR1]
[TR2][TD]Hazelnuts per 1% coin[/TD][TD]14.462[/TD][TD]9.446[/TD][TD]13.611[/TD][/TR2]
[TR1][TD]Hazelnuts per 1% supply[/TD][TD]14.462[/TD][TD]9.446[/TD][TD]13.611[/TD][/TR1]
[TR2][TD]Hazelnuts per 1 hour boost[/TD][TD]33.176[/TD][TD]45.147[/TD][TD]29.615[/TD][/TR2]
[TR1][TD]Hazelnuts per daily building[/TD][TD]402.857[/TD][TD]472.308[/TD][TD]431.2[/TD][/TR1]
[TR2][TD]Hazelnuts per knowledge point[/TD][TD]56.4[/TD][TD]61.4[/TD][TD]43.12[/TD][/TR2]

 

[SoggyShorts]

@Risen Malchiah
Do you plan to wait for either a 3x20h or 4x14h days (assuming there are any)?
If so, that makes it harder to judge--small boxes will give more dailies, but large will give more "fail" instants.
I think it's fairly close, but getting 20% more KP from big boxes and maybe a couple % more total instants is likely.
@Pheryll can you run the numbers assuming the daily prize is 3x20h and see who gets more?

 

[Risen Malchiah]

Yeah, I'd prefer the daily to also be a time booster which would help. It hasn't made an appearance on beta yet, but we still have a ways to go before I need to dump the keys on something else.

 

[Pheryll]

@Pheryll can you run the numbers assuming the daily prize is 3x20h and see who gets more?

The small chest would easily win. 5.58 hazelnuts per 1 hour booster for the small, and 5.78 hazelnuts per 1 hour booster for the large.

 

[DeletedUser9247]

For this winter event, I really only want time boosters and nothing else.[...] Also, I don't suppose there's any chance the 3x20h boosters will make an appearance again? If so, I'm opening everything on that day.

I'm right there with you, but I'm worried they saw time boosters as to good reward and won't offer it anymore... After all if you won't take buildings you won't be short for space and your city might do well...

 

[DeletedUser2424]

I updated the script I made last year for Snow Flurry. See this discussion if you have questions about methodology as it's been discussed at length there.

The highlighted rows are the amount of keys you'll get if you complete all quests. Small box you'll get more but they'll be the 5 hour type. Large you'll get less but they'll be 14h type. So, depending on what you're speeding up is what you'll want to go with...

Large Box is slightly more KP then small, but slightly less daily buildings.

 

[Risen Malchiah]

@fasdfTTT That chart seems to indicate that the large chests would edge out for time boosters. Taking 6500 keys as an example, the average would be 39 x5h boosts (195h) vs. 16 x14h boosts (224h).

So I'll probably open a little of both for variety. Thank you all.

 

[DeletedUser2424]

@Risen Malchiah yeah, assuming you have a lot of LONG builds and you are able to fully use that 14 hours each time.

I just want to point out that those charts are made assuming you invest the entire amount of keys on one particular box. The small box in particular if you are only doing a few rounds you will not get the slight advantage in terms of buildings received. The small box case you have a slightly higher probability of getting keys back and it works out in the long run.

 

[SoggyShorts]

@fasdfTTT That chart seems to indicate that the large chests would edge out for time boosters. Taking 6500 keys as an example, the average would be 39 x5h boosts (195h) vs. 16 x14h boosts (224h).
So I'll probably open a little of both for variety. Thank you all.

But if you open all boxes during a 20hx3 day (if such a thing exists) you should average 1 more daily with the small boxes, which wipes out the advantage from large boxes. Also 5h timers are usually easier to use without wastage.

 

[Risen Malchiah]

That's true. I really try not to waste the boosts unnecessarily. For that reason, having a variety of 20h, 14h and 5h from Eldrasil's and lots of 3m, 15m and 30m from the Halloween event has been helpful. I think I've become addicted to the instant upgrade option and not having to wait for my barracks to complete, or pushing the portal ahead to increase the output of the guest settlement more quickly. I would miss these a lot if they stopped including them as rewards.

 

[DeletedUser5800]

I think I've become addicted to the instant upgrade option

I used all mine to power the flux capacitor so I could scout at 88mph! I need more.

Spoiler

 

[SoggyShorts]

@Risen Malchiah

 

[DeletedUser9247]

Day 17 and day 19- fountains... 2,5K split for each and lots of prayers to the Holy King&Queen of Randomness