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Winter Event Simulator

  • Thread starter DeletedUser5139
  • Start date

DeletedUser5139

Guest
I know it's late in the Winter Event, but since I created this simulator for discussion with Soggy. I wanted to open it up to everyone to answer questions that help you close out the event as best possible.

It can't do everything, but it can answer questions like:

I have 2,806 keys and 500 crowns. Which box should I open and how much difference does it really make?


sim1.png


Answer: Open BIG BOXES for a 71% chance (check the 3GP Wins column for the comparison to other boxes)

or ...

I have 2,000 keys left and really want 3 Candy Cane Trees. Which box should I open?

sim2.png


Answer: Open BIG boxes. Looks about dead even between BIG and SMALL boxes in terms of how many trees will be won (check the Daily Prizes column). However, fewer busts will occur with a BIG box.

Link:
You can find the simulator here.

Hope it helps and good luck on the final days of the winter event.

@Soggy - Thanks for the motivation to put this together.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

SoggyShorts

Mathematician par Excellence
Hmmm looks like 57% chance at GP3...was hoping it was a little higher.
I should have 1905 keys on double day to get 13 big boxes spins, and need
3x140, or
2x140 & 1x200 or
2x 200
gonna be a close one.
 
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