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    Your Elvenar Team

Worlds Becoming Unbalanced on Goods Production

ajqtrz

Chef
The value of anything is going to end up being what both party's of a trade agree upon, but by choosing 1:1 same-tier everything is super fast and easy.
Sure, you can do dozens of calculations and watch the trader and add up the costs in each chapter and and and, but most players aren't here to play "Market sim 2000" So we do what's easy: a little bit of "equal outcome for equal effort" and no one ever feels cheated that way.
If 2 players perform the exact same actions and have the exact same outcome it's really hard to call it unfair.
If no one feels cheated at the end of a transaction, that's close enough to "fair" for me.

I have yet to see an alternative methodology, while everyone can see at a glance if a trade is 2-star and same-tier so it's super easy to go by.
Feel free to recommend a consistent, easier, more reliable measurement of fairness, and I'll think about switching.

Obviously you believe the game should be easy. Or at least easier when it comes to trading. Just look at the stars and let the game (in essence) make the decision for you -- 2 stars and done. But of course which building to put in -- which is more productive per square than another -- you have no problem encouraging people to do that math. And which combination of AW's, event buildings, regular buildings, roads and so on and so on, should you use? No problem, just do the math. The thing is, trading is NOT about math, but about a sense of value and that is a personal decision. Like I keep saying, there are intangibles -- like how important is it to you at this time to finish this quest in this event? Or how important is it to you to cater this spire chest at this time? The list of intangibles is what makes any cut and dried formulation for measuring trade go out the window as soon as it's presented. In fact, if you've ever done any real world market trading you'll find very little complex calculations done. Most traders develop expertise -- intuitive understanding -- of what's going on in their market segment and then look for changes in the details -- like the management team in place for company X is moving to company Z, or that this or that ship just went aground, or company W is opening a new factory in Tibet and will need a lot of tungsten. Each of these, they know from experience will affect the stock price of this or that company. They predict based upon experience, not complex calculations (though a few do try some of that as well -- and don't do any better than the intuitive folks, and sometimes worse).

So, no need to play "market sim 2000" but instead be aware that a free market is more predictable than you think just as knowing you should only buy (at this time) scrolls for less than silk or crystal becomes intuitive after you've played a while.

And you are right that IF the devs had insisted and made it impossible to vary from the 1:1 ratio trades everything would be considered fair. But then nobody would be buying scrolls and us boosted scroll producers would have to build non-boosted silk and crystal and I'm willing to bet, have left the game a long, long time ago out of real frustration. Since the devs didn't insist on the 1:1 ratio and let us vary from it, perhaps they too, realized that there are market forces at work in spite of their desire that the markets be "fair" by their own standards. Everyone makes mistakes, even the devs.

AJ
 

SoggyShorts

Well-Known Member
Obviously you believe the game should be easy. Or at least easier when it comes to trading. Just look at the stars and let the game (in essence) make the decision for you -- 2 stars and done.
That is not at all what I believe. You of all people ascribing motives and beliefs to the statement of others? Should I copy&paste some of your tomes on why you shouldn't do that? Disappointing AJ.
But of course which building to put in -- which is more productive per square than another -- you have no problem encouraging people to do that math. And which combination of AW's, event buildings, regular buildings, roads and so on and so on, should you use? No problem, just do the math.
That's just something that I enjoy, not something I actually expect others to do. Nor do I believe it would be healthy for the game to push such calculations as necessary onto the playerbase of a game like this.
I think it's quite obvious that not everyone enjoys math in any context, that's why having someone else provide the information is so well received.
In fact, if you've ever done any real world market trading you'll find very little complex calculations done. Most traders develop expertise -- intuitive understanding -- of what's going on in their market segment and then look for changes in the details
So, no need to play "market sim 2000" but instead be aware that a free market is more predictable than you think
I have in fact done more than my share, it's how I retired at 40, and I think that the above is absolutely untrue.
"Intuitive understanding" of market forces is not how professional investors make money.
Instead, the most consistently successful strategies have been balanced portfolios with simple 60/40 or 80/20 splits.
Even the simplest investment strategy of just buying the S&P500 has crushed the majority of returns that active investors get whether they are intuitive or institutional for decades. (over 95% of them last time I saw a statistic)
If a free market was actually "more predictable than you think" someone would have won The Buffet Bet.
 

ajqtrz

Chef
That is not at all what I believe. You of all people ascribing motives and beliefs to the statement of others? Should I copy&paste some of your tomes on why you shouldn't do that? Disappointing AJ.

That's just something that I enjoy, not something I actually expect others to do. Nor do I believe it would be healthy for the game to push such calculations as necessary onto the playerbase of a game like this.
I think it's quite obvious that not everyone enjoys math in any context, that's why having someone else provide the information is so well received.

I have in fact done more than my share, it's how I retired at 40, and I think that the above is absolutely untrue.

"Intuitive understanding" of market forces is not how professional investors make money.

If a free market was actually "more predictable than you think" someone would have won The Buffet Bet.
Instead, the most consistently successful strategies have been balanced portfolios with simple 60/40 or 80/20 splits. Even the simplest investment strategy of just buying the S&P500 has crushed the majority of returns that active investors get whether they are intuitive or institutional for decades.

My apology for thinking that when you said "I have yet to see an alternative methodology, while everyone can see at a glance if a trade is 2-star and same-tier so it's super easy to go by." and "Feel free to recommend a consistent, easier, more reliable measurement of fairness, and I'll think about switching," you had a goal of making things easier. And from that I drew the conclusion that you believe things should be easier. My mistake. Sorry you were disappointed.

I did say, and stand by it, that a free market is "more predictable than you think." But it's not the S&P, Dow, NASDAQ, or any other broad based indexes to which I was, obviously, referring, but to investors who work within a particular market and get to know it in detail. Most investors at Merrill-Lynch where I spent a few years, didn't sit there with big calculators and spreadsheets, they read a LOT of trade publications and found out what was going on their specialty area. Then they often shared their insights with others and, with some experience, began to see patterns in how this leads to that and so on. Advice was usually general and couched in terms of "pressures" (up or down) on specific companies and/or market segments.

Portfolio management is not about investing it is about managing risk. It is, in some ways a "macro-economic" approach. It is usually based upon long term survival with less emphasis upon capital growth. But that's just my experience speaking.

AS for an easier way to measure trades I would submit that each player do it for themselves and that they simply ask: is what I'm giving worth it to me to give in exchange for what the other guy is offering." That's it. Experience will teach them how to measure that for themselves and it beats the patently false notion that anybody can or should tell them the value of their trade. As you recognize: "The value of anything is going to end up being what both party's of a trade agree upon." Making that determination personal and transactional rather than institutional and socially mediated is a lot better for all parties. And, in my opinion, easier than "choosing 1:1 same-tier everything" which is a false standard and thus will, by necessity, cause some to lose resources they should not be losing, even if it is "super fast and easy."

AJ
 

Enevhar Aldarion

Well-Known Member
This is my standard goods for my chapter 17 city. I try to keep all nine balanced, but as you can see, I have plenty of extra scrolls. And even so, I will help out fellowship members when they need to offer scrolls for other tier 2. And I will also take at least some scrolls offers from the small cities I have discovered, because I know they need the help.

Screenshot (24).png
 

CrazyWizard

Well-Known Member
Because their smaller factories make less goods. This is why getting into a fellowship is so important, because someone will say why not make more?

?? what kind of logic is that???

yes there factories make less goods but you can place 2 of them in the same space.

It's like telling most elves quit as they have 6 sq wood/marble factories while humans have 15 space factories.
Lats time I checked there a darn lot of elves in this game.
 

LutherTheHairy

Active Member
I also do not understand. the player just builds more manufactories. With upgrade costs and times tending to scale with the number of tiles, it really makes little difference.
 

NightshadeCS

Well-Known Member
I disagree. Most new players don't know what the other race or other boosts are contending with. They don't have multiple cities, they don't read up on the Forum before starting. They build what they need with blinders on. In fact, most build all the factories until you finally get to a point where you go, "hey! I don't have nearly enough room for all these factories!"
 

Silver Lady

Well-Known Member
In fact, most build all the factories until you finally get to a point where you go, "hey! I don't have nearly enough room for all these factories!"

I know that’s what I did. Sure wish I’d knew then what I know now! Might be further along than I am. But the last release may help newbies because Inno changed the background color for your boosted manufactures and gives a warning if you go to build a non-boosted one. I think that change deserves an ‘Attaboy’ or the German equivalent.
 

TomatoeHu

Well-Known Member
I know that’s what I did. Sure wish I’d knew then what I know now! Might be further along than I am. But the last release may help newbies because Inno changed the background color for your boosted manufactures and gives a warning if you go to build a non-boosted one. I think that change deserves an ‘Attaboy’ or the German equivalent.
IMHO, 5 years too late does not deserve an attaboy..... but we definitely deserve some world map clean up with all these dead cities getting moved out ( better to just delete them ) more often. this would help get players in on spots that produce goods we are so short on in the trader, spots that are currently contributing nothing to the game and wasting our recruiting efforts finding players who need help before they give up and become a dead city themselves
 

bkbajb

Well-Known Member
I agree that goods costs are not balanced and there seems to be a shortage of Silk, but one thing that I do is during the off silk weeks in the tournament, I take all of the trades that I can. I have a ton of scrolls and have built another one just so that I have enough to grab silk. We cannot balance the game so get creative in those off weeks to help.
 

Sprite1313

Well-Known Member
I disagree. Most new players don't know what the other race or other boosts are contending with. They don't have multiple cities, they don't read up on the Forum before starting. They build what they need with blinders on. In fact, most build all the factories until you finally get to a point where you go, "hey! I don't have nearly enough room for all these factories!"
Exactly. I know that in earlier chapters, I built a ton of my boosted manus (it didn't take long for me to follow the advice to build only boosted manus), as many as I could support with space and population. Once I started feeling the crunch on those, and my manus were more efficient I started selling them (before I had enough teleport spells) or porting them into inventory (until I had to build more T1 manus for the FA bracelets). I didn't care that my boosted steel meant that, early on, my manus were bigger than marble or planks boosted players. I just focused on being able to meet my needs and the Tetris of building my city.
 

RainbowSKYEPIXIE

Well-Known Member
Thanks for providing me the opportunity to explain, time and again, to players just hitting sentients how to handle the trading atmosphere that you foster and encourage. I enjoy soothing ruffled feathers, and persuading folks to persevere in the face of adverse trading conditions.
By the way, in case I have not stated this often enough:
Never take trades from this kind of player. If they routinely offer 1 star, and offer 3 star when they really need something, nope, never! If we all stuck to this strategy then these sharks would starve. Ooo, maybe they might have to actually produce sentients their own selves, instead of feeding off others.
I L-O-V-E this sooo much!! You are so spot on Lelanya! Thank you for saying exactly what I think everyday that I look in my Trader. I have a "black list" for those players in K world. I share that list with anyone else who would like that information. I'm sure everyone already has those names as well though. Those on the list will never, Ever, get a trade from me! Oh did I say Never??
 
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