Best Chests - Event Strategy calculators

[Pheryll]

I am actually not making any assumptions about risk-tolerance. Tool calculates averages, and optimizes averages (as stated). It doesn't show nor even calculates variance. Now, it is indeed true that you don't have to aim for averages, or even have a symmetrical gain/loss value function. If you want to maximize a particular outcome (say, achieving L10 Stonehenge), then optimal strategy might be different than maximizing the mean.

Maximizing a particular outcome is difficult in general, because the amount of event currency that each person receives varies significantly. Not only do you have the hourly spawn differences, but the number of times one collects, whether they have the event outpost, whether they received the 100 currency from the email promotion, whether they obtained event currency through crafting, and whether they spent money. Calculating averages is often the best way to go from such a variety of different outcomes where one never knows how high each person would need to reach.

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

Maximizing a particular outcome is difficult in general, because the amount of event currency that each person receives varies significantly. Not only do you have the hourly spawn differences, but the number of times one collects, whether they have the event outpost, whether they received the 100 currency from the email promotion, whether they obtained event currency through crafting, and whether they spent money. Calculating averages is often the best way to go from such a variety of different outcomes where one never knows how high each person would need to reach.

It's all true - that's why total event currency is an input, so everyone can customize for what they expect to get. The important part is that for maximizing averages the total available doesn't impact the strategy selection - it only scales the outcome numbers. For targeting a particular outcome such an input would impact the actual strategy selection.

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

I have updated the calculators for the Summer Mermaids event. Realistically, it was mostly cosmetics as chests setup is exactly the same as for Summer Solstice (except chests are no longer called by color).

One thing that is different though is the total amount of event currency (corals in this case) that you expect. Previously, it was easy to ballpark it at 6.5K-7.5K as total event currency was capped. Now, when we have unlimited quests one can gain considerably more than that. Well, this is not the worst problem to have

 

[Black watch]

Thanks MinMax Gamer, as always a font of great info!

 

[DeletedUser5676]

Edit: Updated for Summer Mermaids event

Thank you for all your work on this. It's a very nice tool.

I understand we ignore the colors for this event, and just go by the number of corals the chest is priced at?

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

I understand we ignore the colors for this event, and just go by the number of corals the chest is priced at?

Correct. Not sure why they decided to drop the color names - probably because shells artwork didn't really work there. I assume they won't be making different chests with the same cost anymore - that would really make things confusing...

 

[DeletedUser23031]

Does it take 19 grand prizes to get an evolution 10 Mermaid Paradise?
1 is the initial prize
18/2 for the remaining 9 GP
=10 evolutions.
is this right?
therefore it would take 39 to get two maxed out? or do I need to win another MParadise so it's 21 more for a total of 40?
-not that I can make it- but i can dream.

 

[Pheryll]

Does it take 19 grand prizes to get an evolution 10 Mermaid Paradise?
1 is the initial prize
18/2 for the remaining 9 GP
=10 evolutions.
is this right?
therefore it would take 39 to get two maxed out? or do I need to win another MParadise so it's 21 more for a total of 40?
-not that I can make it- but i can dream.

Quest 1 is the initial prize.

Odd grand prizes 1 to 17 are the 9 needed for upgrading it to level 10

Grand prize 18 is the second offering of the paradise.

Odd grand prizes 19 to 35 are the 9 needed for upgrading it to level 10

It seems that all grand prizes this event are worth 20. In previous events, grand prizes after the 20th would cost 30 each.

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

It seems that all grand prizes this event are worth 20. In previous events, grand prizes after the 20th would cost 30 each.

Is that confirmed? I forgot about grand prize price jump in the previous events. Is there no such thing this time around, or did they just push it further out?

 

[Pheryll]

Is that confirmed? I forgot about grand prize price jump in the previous events. Is there no such thing this time around, or did they just push it further out?

It seems no increase. Nothing changes at the 20th, and the wiki says that all grand prizes are worth 20.

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

I have updated the calculators for the Autumn Zodiac event. Again, it was just a cosmetic change - there was no change in chests content. I have simply added a new event in so that users know they're using the correct data.

And again, total amount of event currency estimates are even more of a crapshoot this time around. Given all the changes, I have now idea of how much I will realistically gain here. You can use the tool to solve the inverse problem - how much event currency do you need to get in order to have a good shot at desired outcome (such as 1 or 2 L10 bears), and then go from there.

 

[Xelenia]

Well, this is rather neat

 

[Ashrem]

Again, it was just a cosmetic change - there was no change in chests content.

Since 1/10 of our grand prizes are not taken up by the buildings themselves (vs the mermaid event. I presume that means 18 GP are needed to fully level two bears?

 

[Pheryll]

Should still be 17 GP to fully level up one bear and 35 to fully level up two. The mermaid event had no artifact displacement as its second occurrence was an even numbered grand prize (thus displacing a temporary building instead of an artifact).

 

[kctanzen]

I'm just hoping to get my brown bear fully evolved .. luck of the draw on event quests will determine that but I should be ok at this point if I can complete at least one a day.

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

I have updated the calculators for the Elvarian Carnival event (as started on Beta). We're back to 3-chest theater system (so thanks for that), but this time around it is NOT just a cosmetic change comparing to the last 3-chest events. There are changes in chests content and costs; generally speaking grand prizes and daily prizes stayed roughly the same, but the side rewards have been severely nerfed. Especially time instants, e.g. Red's 4x8h @ 40% became 2x5h @ 20%. The expected value of timeboosts for this particular chest went down by more than a factor of 6...

And again, total amount of event currency estimates are hard to figure out this time around. So you again can use the tool to solve the inverse problem - how much event currency do you need to get in order to have a good shot at desired outcome (such as 1x or 2x L10 grand prize), and then go from there.

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

I have updated the calculators for the Gathering of the Phoenix Cults event (as started on Beta). We're again on the 3-chest theater system, but there are more changes comparing to the usual setup. All time instants in chests are gone, and instead there are 5-squad troop instants for Barracks troops. Adding 5 different outputs required some changes in the interface, but now it is done.

There are some other changes, but those are relatively minor and fine tune costs and probabilities a little bit.

As the quest line is fixed, the total amount of event currency (main quests + daily quests + city collections) is expected to be around 6,000. This is less than 2020 Carnival event. If that's accurate, then even with an optimal strategy for Grand Prizes the expected number of artifacts wouldn't be enough even for L9 evolution.

 

[Ashrem]

then even with an optimal strategy for Grand Prizes the expected number of artifacts wouldn't be enough even for L9 evolution.

Frankly, I'd happily give up all my Coldfire Evolutions if it's easy for small cities to get the three phoenix evolves.

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

I have updated the calculators for The Air Traders' Voyage event (June 2020). So far, it is a carbon copy of the Gathering of the Phoenix Cults setup. I have simply added the new event in so that users know they're using the correct data.

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

I have updated the calculators for Sorcerers' Pilgrimage event (July 2020). The chest setup is quite different this time around, a lot of reshuffling happened there. Given the same amount of event currency as in the previous event, and using the best chest strategies for each, you can expect to get a little bit more grand prizes, a little bit more daily prizes, and less of combined AWKP+KP.

In other news, (formerly purple) chest that used to suck for both GP and DP equally bad, is now half price and is not even the most expensive anymore. It is now also the best chest for dailies as it is still 30% chance of hitting it, except it will now cost only 83. I fully expect it to be nerfed ASAP