Pheryll
Set Designer
I am actually not making any assumptions about risk-tolerance. Tool calculates averages, and optimizes averages (as stated). It doesn't show nor even calculates variance. Now, it is indeed true that you don't have to aim for averages, or even have a symmetrical gain/loss value function. If you want to maximize a particular outcome (say, achieving L10 Stonehenge), then optimal strategy might be different than maximizing the mean.
Maximizing a particular outcome is difficult in general, because the amount of event currency that each person receives varies significantly. Not only do you have the hourly spawn differences, but the number of times one collects, whether they have the event outpost, whether they received the 100 currency from the email promotion, whether they obtained event currency through crafting, and whether they spent money. Calculating averages is often the best way to go from such a variety of different outcomes where one never knows how high each person would need to reach.