@SoggyShorts
You said:
How can you read the opposite of what I'm saying?
When I leave late, it means I missed the nice window where there are fewer drivers, so I have to drive slower. It does not mean I go faster
it's the exact opposite.
You are consistently trying to use the mistake of being late as a motive, and I would rather not repeat again that such is never
my motive.
The average accident is 1.6 in a million miles on the freeway, and I'm estimating I'll drive about 50,000 freeway miles in my life that puts my odds at
50,000/1,000,000 =0.05
0.05*1.6=0.08 or 8% chance
If I'm lucky I can average 75 in the 60 zone over all of the trips so
15mph =4.5% increased risk.
8% becomes 8.36% chance
~110h vs 0.36% chance of an accident. interesting.
I'm not sure how they'd ever get stats on it but I am curious how much of a role driver fatigue would play in this. at 2.5h it's a boring drive, and at 3.5h it's even more boring."
To which I reply:
Nice job. You are correct that the chance of having an accident is only slightly more per mile and thus, if you take the mileage you have and divide the accidents per million miles calculations you should get the increase in percentage of having an accident at whatever speed. The average American driver drives 13,000 miles per vehicle per year. So whatever their rate, yours is nearly 4 times more than the average driver. But of course, if you use the same formula to determine the severity of the accident you will get in every 20 years of so (5% x 20 = 100) then while your accident rate may remain a constant .036, the severity rise would be 12% higher per each 5mph...36% higher chance you won't survive, 36% chance that if you do survive your injuries will be severe, and if they aren't severe a 36% chance they will be moderate as verses minor.
But more to the point perhaps, is the question of your risk is personal, but what of the risk you are adding to the others on the roadway. Do you have the right to increase their risk needlessly? If you are never in a hurry from being late, then why drive at 75? If you aren't in a hurry to get there, get there at the same time. I do apologize if I overstated or said that you were in hurry because you had left late after a Sunday fun time or something. It may have been somebody else who spoke of having had a good time on Sunday and leaving late for work....which I assumed would motivate them to drive faster.
At least you do agree that the speed increase does present an increase in accident rate (however small it is perceived) and severity. If that is true then the rational thing and humane thing is to not increase those things for your fellow travelers and drive the speed limit.
AJ