None of our "how many visits I'm getting" stats mean anything unless we hear from people who are small and were getting regular visits from large neighbors with whom they could not reciprocate. Those are the only people who have real data about visit changes. Most people are going to want the reciprocal supplies, so are not going to change visit patterns for those people.
On a personal note, I had a number of new neighbors move into my area over the weekend, so last night for the first time since the change I decided to replenish coin by visiting all my neighbors. I got to about 130 of my 220 neighbors, and decided that bed was more valuable than visiting. In the past, (and by that I mean even when I was only getting six per neighbor last winter) I'd have visited the complete list at least twice a week. I think the concentration of goods into the first few helps has been far more damaging than the actual quantity of goods, as far as encouraging help.
Call it threats and whining if you will, but going to bed early officially beats out helping anyone who doesn't return help semi-regularly, no matter how small, or new, they are.