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    Your Elvenar Team

Error in prize percentages in the event?

Laochra

Laochra

Well-Known Member
My hubby has 3 cities. He has saved all of his hazelnuts specifically because he wanted the Traveling Merchant I.
Since the top treasure claims a 25% chance of getting it, he figured that he would need about 4 attempts to secure the traveling merchant & he would still have some of his 450 hazelnuts left over for tomorrow's prize. In the first city, he ended up with 9 hits on the top treasure & got no traveling merchant & has 10 hazelnuts left. 2nd city, same results-no traveling merchant--& this was the city he needed it the most in. City # 3, he hit the 50 chest a couple of times, then went back to the top treasure & got the merchant with 1 hit.
I despise math in all its forms, but even I can tell that that doesn't come even close to a 25% chance. Right??
He's over it. I'm gonna go now & see how I fare.
 
Laochra

Laochra

Well-Known Member
Ok, wow. My first city, the one I really wanted the merchant in, I got nothing. My 2nd city already had one, so I skipped it. My 3rd & 4th city, I hit the 50 once, the 90 once, & the 140 twice & got the merchant. My 5th city, I hit the 50 once & got it. Poor hubby!! Maybe we can get enough hazelnuts gathered before it expires tomorrow!
 

DeletedUser1996

Guest
Awesome - yeah Hope yer hubby gathers all of his nuts --Hazel that is :p I mean Hazelnuts !
 

DeletedUser1269

Guest
Mathematically, about a 7.5% chance of NOT getting it in 9 tries. That's about 1 in 14. Bad luck, yes, but clearly possible.
 

DeletedUser

Guest
Thank you for your report! However, this is not a bug, so we will close it. Statistics are indeed tricky math, 25% doesn't mean 1 in 4 will always happen. Think of it like flipping a coin - yes there is a 50/50 chance for heads or tails, but it is still possible to flip a coin several times in a row for the same result. Each occurrence is independent of the previous. We were not able to find any issues with this feature.
 
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