Help Genie and number of possible wins VS allocation of predicted wins

[Ariel Greensleeves]

So someone told me, and I do not believe them, that the Genie, which lasts 100 days, and produces a prize twice a day, has a set number of prizes of each type. For instance, a Chapter 8 Genie has a 1 % chance of producing 200 Diamonds. Over 100 days, on average that is two 'wins' for the 200 Diamonds. The contention is that there is only 2 wins for the 200 "Loaded" into that Genie, and once you get those you will not get another 200 Diamond win again, with that Genie. As opposed to randomly rolling for each prize, which means after the 100 days you could have gotten 4 200 Diamond prizes, or none. Does anyone know which way it goes??

Thanks

Ariel

 

[MaidenFair]

So someone told me, and I do not believe them, that the Genie, which lasts 100 days, and produces a prize twice a day, has a set number of prizes of each type. For instance, a Chapter 8 Genie has a 1 % chance of producing 200 Diamonds. Over 100 days, on average that is two 'wins' for the 200 Diamonds. The contention is that there is only 2 wins for the 200 "Loaded" into that Genie, and once you get those you will not get another 200 Diamond win again, with that Genie. As opposed to randomly rolling for each prize, which means after the 100 days you could have gotten 4 200 Diamond prizes, or none. Does anyone know which way it goes??

Thanks

Ariel

It’s definitely random, with the odds shown, for each “draw”. I’ve gotten 200 diamonds way more than twice from some of my Genies over their duration. You are right not to believe them.

 

[Yogi Dave]

Sometimes you get more, sometimes you get none. You would need a lot of them to see if they average out to 2. Back when there were tons of Wishing Wells available, I did a spreadsheet to track the diamonds. (I didn't care about the other stuff) It worked out to be very close to 10%. I presume that still works. They don't keep count of how many times it has hit.

 

[Dhurrin]

Sometimes you get more, sometimes you get none. You would need a lot of them to see if they average out to 2. Back when there were tons of Wishing Wells available, I did a spreadsheet to track the diamonds. (I didn't care about the other stuff) It worked out to be very close to 10%. I presume that still works. They don't keep count of how many times it has hit.

They do average out on the prizes shown, in a way.
I was wondering the same thing myself way back, with the Wishing Wells, as I tended to get way less of the really desirable prizes. when I had one out, though one tends to remember the bad ones more than the good ones.
So I wanted to find out and waited and collected them, then put 12 out at once and noted what I harvested each time. Since I had them on 1 row it was easy to mark exactly what I harvested from each one each time.
I put 10 Genies out a while ago and did the same, basically the same results.

ON AVERAGE over 100 days over 10 (or 12) buildings the results are very close to what they should be compared to the list of given prizes.

However, I did find that not all buildings produce anywhere the same over their span; some of them never produced diamonds at all in the 183 times I harvested them (yes, I missed or was delayed on some). Some produced them far more often.
So maybe there are 'good ones' and 'bad ones'. Or it could be some were just extremely unlucky in their rolls and some were very lucky, but in the end it pretty much averaged out.

@Ariel Greensleeves
But no, I didn't see any sign that some prizes had set amounts per building, because in that case each building basically should over time produce the same things, just on different moments. In neither test was that the case.