Unleashed Unit Upgrade

[qaccy]

Does this building still show up in the Magic Academy? I can't see the actual numbers myself of course, so I'm asking here in the hopes that multiple people come forward saying they've seen it available. It's been over a month for me and I usually get to check at least 3 times a day so I'm currently quite concerned that it got removed either accidentally or intentionally. Hopefully that's not the case!

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

It's still around, I've got one 6 days ago. These are not as common as they used to be half a year ago, but they still pop up now and then.

 

[samidodamage]

I have 2 cities. One hasn't seen a UUU in weeks, but has a good stash of the ELR & MMM bldgs. Only ran out of UUU's there with the elixir tourney. The other city has a good stash of all 3 bldgs and I know I've seen at least one UUU this past week (2 I think, but 1 for sure) in the MA. If I was only playing that one city, I'd probably think they'd been removed, too!

 

[qaccy]

Alright, at least I now know that they're still in the crafting pool. That means I've just been unlucky!

 

[obeyusa]

Alright, at least I now know that they're still in the crafting pool. That means I've just been unlucky!

The woes of randomness, just like special deals.

 

[Ashrem]

The woes of randomness, just like special deals.

Except special deals aren't all that random. You pretty much never get some of them if you've bought diamonds recently.

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

Except special deals aren't all that random. You pretty much never get some of them if you've bought diamonds recently.

Given all this "randomness" in events recently, and known skew in offers/special deals, I am not necessarily convinced that MA recipes are uniformly random either. I mean, no one claimed they are, at least not what I know.

 

[Ashrem]

Given all this "randomness" in events recently, and known skew in offers/special deals, I am not necessarily convinced that MA recipes are uniformly random either. I mean, no one claimed they are, at least not what I know.

I'd claim that. While the buildings I want are rarer than I'd like, across several cities they seem pretty random. My problem is there are really only 7 recipes I'm interested in, and four of them are pet food.

 

[Arayla]

Here's my take on the randomness:

I have 2 cities in the same chapter, one on Beta and the other on US2. I play them the same, log in the same amount, and craft the same items every time they appear in the MA (UUU, MMM, ELR, Gr of Orc Strat, VV, and all Pet Food). Even during the events, I do not craft things I don't want. I will craft an MM or KP/AW when they do not use a CC, but they rarely come up.

Both cities have varied on what is available to craft, but overall it pretty much evens out. Beta had a short period of time where pet food was available almost every log in and now I have 20 more pet food there. Now both cities are getting a lot of the military buildings for the first time in 2 months.

I spent diamonds to get the level 5 MA. I spent diamonds 1 time to get the MA reset on a schedule that works for me. I routinely use time boosters to finish up crafting if there is something else I want to craft. I make sure to craft CCs 24/7 in order to keep enough on hand to craft every time something good comes up.

I seem to get pet food and military buildings offered more than others, but I don't think there are statistically many players who log in 6 times a day and check the MA every.single.time to see what is available to craft. I have also been through times where I got only 1 or 2 things per week that were worthwhile for me to craft for 2 or 3 weeks in a stretch.

I think the offerings are random and that checking as often as possible increases the odds of finding the things one wants.

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

I think you guys missed that I questioned that recipes are uniformly random. In this context meaning that every distinct recipe has the same chance of occurring. They may still be random, but e.g. UUU may have smaller chance of occurring than some other recipes. And that chance may vary other time, and/or per player.

No one that I know of ran accurate records of all recipes showing up over meaningful period of time, and that's how you can determine statistical properties. But I know that with with consistent usage (3x times a week, occasional brown bear feedings recently) my Pet Food stockpile has been changing consistently since PF introduction. I.e. in this case my stockpile grows ever so slightly week over week. There are some ups and downs, but over monthly timeframes this is very consistent.

Now, I also try to use UUU consistently. And until about Phoenix Event I was able to field 1x UUU every tournament, and my stockpiles were essentially flat. This was consistent with uniform frequencies hypothesis meaning that on average every recipe shows about once per week. Again, very consistent stockpiling at least on a monthly basis. But then in subsequent months I ran out of my 7-8 stored UUUs very quickly, and was able to field 1x UUU in only about 3-4 tournaments per 9 week cycle. This, again, allowed to keep my stockpile of UUU flat (and stockpile was really 2-3 units). Again, this pattern was very consistent for about 6 months.

And then about a month or so ago (around start of Elvenar chapter) things changed again. UUU are a lot more frequent now. I mean, A LOT. I have 10x UUUs from Elvenar chapter, so that's last 30 days or so. This includes one day when I got 2x UUU in a row. Even in the better days 10x UUU would be about 10 weeks worth of waiting. In not so good times - about 20+ weeks. Now it was done in about 4.

Could it be explained simply by chance? Sure, just about anything can be. This is also a pretty unlikely scenario if we assume uniform distribution. I wouldn't be expecting seeing such variations over long periods of time.

 

[Ashrem]

I think the sample sizes are too small. At best, if one person doesn't miss any crafting chances for 6 weeks in a row, that's 840 recipes presented, with what 30, 40 possible recipes? If we go with 35, that's 24 presentations in six weeks for perfect distribution. Anything from 15 to 35 would be reasonable I think, and how many people never miss a recipe?

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

I think the sample sizes are too small. At best, if one person doesn't miss any crafting chances for 6 weeks in a row, that's 840 recipes presented, with what 30, 40 possible recipes? If we go with 35, that's 24 presentations in six weeks for perfect distribution. Anything from 15 to 35 would be reasonable I think, and how many people never miss a recipe?

There is slightly more than 100 unique recipes in the MA. My observations go back almost a year though, and I practically do not miss refreshes. The only time I miss recipes is when crafting spans refresh cycle (I usually do not timeboost those), so I get 4 instead of 5 on a refresh. This is not a very common occurrence.

 

[Ashrem]

We know the recipes have changed at least twice this year, and no idea how many other changes have occurred, so there's already a problem (aside from the anecdotal nature of our data). And we're not all working from the same list. I have every evolving building either deployed or in inventory, except the couple I shredded before the spire made shredding them a waste. Someone with none is looking at at least 8 more recipes than I see. And as far as in-hand boost buildings, I went almost exclusively for them the last time they were offered as prizes, and used them accordingly, so I expected a gradual drop

Without a group of people willing to meticulously catalogue all crafting offered and used, I don't see how we can reliably make any solid conclusions.

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

Without a group of people willing to meticulously catalogue all crafting offered and used, I don't see how we can reliably make any solid conclusions.

True, that's why I said that I am not convinced about underlying uniformity of recipe distributions - I didn't say I am convinced it is not Also, I don't see anyone really going through the hassle of such data collection as it is incredibly boring. But more importantly, the results of such analysis won't be actionable anyway. I keep decent records on tournament and event performance, as in both cases I can impact the outcomes (troop mix, chest selection etc). Even if someone determines how exactly MA recipes are distributed, there is nothing you can do about it (well, outside of adjusting expectations ) So, a lot of pain for not a lot of gain.

 

[Ashrem]

Besides that, they could change things halfway though our collection and we might not know.....

 

[Mr.Nitro]

I have 1 city where I get UUU MM buildings every week to craft in the MA. Always helps me to the top in the spire. I have another city, I play just as hard, I am lucky if I ever see one of those expiring buildings in 2 weeks. I muddle thru on that city, but never complete the spire.

 

[Raccon]

They've become scarce in recent weeks. The ELR and MMM haven't shown up for three or four weeks now and I'm compleatly out of those! I had a better luck with UUU, as it's absence started a little less than two weeks ago.