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What is a fair return on KPs given (not traded) to other players?

MichaelMichael

MichaelMichael

Day and Night Trader
For clarity, I'd like to limit the discussion to when the AW is not near completion and the gift is at risk to be outbid.

My thoughts are no more than about 80% of what expected value of the next lower chest.

Example: If the
  1. top chest is worth 4 Shards (15 points) and 65 in KP instants - 125 KPs total and
  2. the next chest is worth 3 Shards and 45 KP instants - 90 KP
  3. then a reasonable bid is 70 KPs for the top chest.
All thoughts are appreciated. BTW under this logic, the last chest is only worth 1 KP as it is easily outbit.
 
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I guess I am missing your point or your logic fails, the expectation of a fair return is not an option. The game says if you are the in the top spot no matter the amount you gave you get "X" reward and so on down to the last chest.

Even, If I drop 5 KP into anothers AW and they finish it off seconds later and nobody else has dropped any KP I get the top reward, End of story.
If I drop 250KP and everyone else drops 251 I would get the last chest of 5KP instant, End of story.

Ed
 
I don't think I understand the premise? What system we are talking and what do you mean by risk to be outbid? In net0 for example you put in 125 for that chest.
 
Killy- said:
I don't think I understand the premise? What system we are talking and what do you mean by risk to be outbid? In net0 for example you put in 125 for that chest.
Click to expand...
Since the OP didnt mention net0 ( or any other Aw leveling ) I would not include this in the analysis.

Ed
 
For an extra wrinkle or complication in your math, a rune shard for any Wonder I have in my city, I only count as 10 KP, since that is what it is worth in my AW. So 4 shards in someone else's AW is 60 KP, but if I have that AW, it is 40 I am giving up to put 60 in their AW. Because of that, those 20 point AKs you can win are equal to two rune shards for my AW, 20 for 20. Now, if it for an AW I do not have built, and will never build, I don't care how many rune shards I put in to get a top chest, though I try to limit it to 10 shards, or 150 points, if I can. And I try to avoid any Wonders that look to be part of an obvious KP chain.
 
I'll throw this into the mix as well:
How are you factoring the growth of chests as a given AW raises its level?
As we all know, the higher an AW is leveled, more (and better) reward chests are added. So if the top chest (of 4) has 1 rune for a Lvl 5 AW, and that same AW at Lvl 10 has made the top chest a 2-rune chest, while adding another low-level chest (now 5 chests total), is the value of each top chest the same, or different?
 
I am not talking about any system. I have two cases where I give away KPs.
  1. One is in my fellowship to players that do not trade KPs.
  2. The other is as outsiders for players that don't seem to get many KPs from within their fellowship.
The answers I have come up with depends. In case 1 I beat any one from the outside until the outsider gets less than they put in. If it is just members of my fellowship 50% seems fair but I will only outbid a fellow by at least 5 KP and only when they also will get a positive return. My initial bid is typically 50% of value rounded down (so a position worth 125 KPs will be bid at 60KPs, but up to 126 to beat an outsider)
For the outsiders, I bid in 3 stages.

  1. Stage 1 is before they have less than 50% of the KPs required. That bid is 1 KP.
  2. Stage 2 is when they reach 50% of the KPs required. I look at what the owner invests. If it is most of the KPs, I bid aggressively to get the highest profit margin chest but If I drop a slot or 2 due to other bids, I should also make a profit. If none of the KPs come from the owner. I bid no higher than 4 or 5 to get a chest that gains at least 1 shard. If 1 already gets a chest, I usually hold at one
  3. Stage 3 is when things get close to completion. In this case I bid as high as it takes to guarrantee the highest net value for the best chest I can earn
Fair is ultimately a market decision. Take a profit when you can. Internal to your fellowship - a profit is defined as a fellowship profit. If an outsider spends more than the chest is worth, the fellowship has a net gain. The issue of fair is over because no one chooses to be fair for unsolicited KPs. It is pure dog eat dog.
 
I try to follow most systems and not disrupt
any chains, not step on anyone's toes.

(4+65) / 125 ... I'd bid 65 on certainly.
 
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