News from Beta - May Contain Spoilers!

[The Unbeliever]

I respect your opinion, but I suggest that we put it to the test during the next event.

It's simple mathematics.
In the 3-chest events, you are *always* X amount short of the statistical average needed to hit 260 GP pts. You MUST receive +Y bonus currencies from the chests in order to make up the shortfall.
How large Y becomes however, can be heavily influenced by the players themselves. If you're extremely active and pick-up 20-24+ incidents per day, your Y becomes much smaller than the player who only visits twice a day and collects 12 incidents/day.

 

[ekarat]

It's simple mathematics.
In the 3-chest events, you are *always* X amount short of the statistical average needed to hit 260 GP pts. You MUST receive +Y bonus currencies from the chests in order to make up the shortfall.
How large Y becomes however, can be heavily influenced by the players themselves. If you're extremely active and pick-up 20-24+ incidents per day, your Y becomes much smaller than the player who only visits twice a day and collects 12 incidents/day.

I have never fallen short of the 3-chest mechanic. I do optimize which chests and consider the size of the chest, rather than just the best average return on that chest. (A worse average for a smaller chest can be worth it, if you can get one more chest at average return.)

 

[Enevhar Aldarion]

I have never fallen short of the 3-chest mechanic. I do optimize which chests and consider the size of the chest, rather than just the best average return on that chest. (A worse average for a smaller chest can be worth it, if you can get one more chest at average return.)

That just means you were always lucky enough to win enough extra currency. So the RNG was good to you.

 

[Killy-]

Chose which chests are the best for whatever you want (most kp, most daylie prices, most...) and the "thinking part" is done. The rest is up to rng (there is no hidden 3d chess) .

 

[The Unbeliever]

I have never fallen short of the 3-chest mechanic. I do optimize which chests and consider the size of the chest, rather than just the best average return on that chest. (A worse average for a smaller chest can be worth it, if you can get one more chest at average return.)

That just means you were always lucky enough to win enough extra currency. So the RNG was good to you.

THIS!
Worst one I've faced was the 2020 Sorc's event with the Pilgrim's Manor set... basically I won almost nothing back in the way of currency from the chests, and dropped roughly 12k dias to fill out the 2nd set because I was getting RNG-screwed so hard.
On the other hand, I've had the chest events where I've been RNG blessed and managed even the extra Lv1 building without spending dias.

It's just a bad format that revolved far too heavily around pure luck.

 

[Henroo]

I think that is the key for this event, especially when the majority of players are casual players. Having casually done events for a while now I personally always feel I get way more prizes from the 3-chest format. I loathe the dig one the most as I get the least prizes from it, probably as it takes the most time/effort which is not compatable with casual play. The shufflebaord isn't too bad, but harder to get major prizes from a casual perspective.

Most likely its why they offer the different formats as no one will ever be 100% happy, even if they had an event where you could 100% get the prizes for minimal effort, there will be people complaining of no challenge. Rotating around the different events allows them to suit different playstyles and approaches.

I am the exact opposite. I *love* the Misty Forest and shuffleboard format events because in those events I am going to easily get all the artifacts I need and will probably also get a 2nd base for the building. Without spending any money or diamonds. In the 3 chest format, it requires some luck just to get all the artifacts without spending. And you need CRAZY good luck to get a 2nd base for free. I suspect your insight about different formats for casual players vs serious players is spot on.

 

[Zoof]

There is no such thing as pure RNG.

How much RNG there is is partially decided by you as a player.

If I roll 1 6 sided die the end result is totally random.
when I roll 6 6 sided dies the result is already a lot more predictable,
when I roll 50 6 sided dies the result is very predictable.

The same argument counts for events, the more chests you open the less random the result becomes.
As a player you can also influece the end result by picking the chests so thaty your random decreases.

The fun part is you can also risk it, you can choose to go for the go all or go broke approach. because if you choose so the random is reduced it means you get a more "average" result. but if I want to be at the top 1% I might go and go for a more random result, this could be average, this could be way below average or wat above average. and for that 1% you want to be way above average. so by increasing the random you can increase your chances to get 1% but also increae your chance to get a really bad result.

So random ain't as random as you might think.

Using dice as an example of the desired effect is a rather poor way to demonstrate your point, despite popular opinion (after all, it is possible to cheat at dice rolling). I would rather trust the bog-standard UNIX random(3) function seeded with the current time. While the latter isn't "truly" random either, the most important parts of it are that the player cannot control its input(s) and that it simulates randomness. The simulation part is what counts since it's often better than the real thing. For all intents and purposes, as long as the devs didn't do something rather silly with their code, it's about as random as it gets, and it only gets better if the developers went the extra mile and used some cryptographic-grade PRNGs or TRNGs.

Either way, the events are always scaled such that you either have to get lucky or spend diamonds. And I mean that in that statistical sense. (Yes, they did the math. Their bottom line depends on it.)

EDIT: Yes, you can control which chest you get. No, you cannot control what RNG value pops up that determines *what* you get from that chest.

 

[BrinDarby]

If I roll 1 6 sided die the end result is totally random.
when I roll 6 6 sided dies the result is already a lot more predictable,
when I roll 50 6 sided dies the result is very predictable.

Rolling (50) 6sided dice =/= rolling (1) 6sided dice 50 times.
Statistically it should be the same , but in practice, not necessarilly.
Even small imperfections in manufacturing will effect the rolls.
Also I've never been told where the RNG is applied, this also makes
a huge difference to the outcome of multiple tries in a row.
A computer and a dice are far different, but a significant factor is
where/when/how the RNG is applied.

Is the prize fix'd in each, when 3 new chests are displayed ?
or, is the prize determined when the chest is opened ?

You could ask the same question about the mystical object in MA,
or the chests as each level is generated in Spire. The only sticking
point is when/how the RNG is used.

Lets say hypothetical is 3 prizes, 50%, 30%, 20% respectfully...
If you just picked that chest 5 times in a row, you'd expect
longterm, for every 5 opened... you'd hit (1) of the 20%'ers.
But in the game its impossible to get even 5 picks, let alone
more than 5, in a row.... even if you're lucky enough for 1 of
the 3 offered to be the exact chest that gives the above chances.
The reason its impossible is because in the meantime, if its random
which 3 chests you get, then (3) more randoms are picked....
in between opening each chest. ( ie- picking the next 3 chests )

We also need to address where its being picked.... client-side or
server-side. Not too different as your fav poker site. Are the cards
randomized , then the deck sent to the table, or is the deck
randomized in the browser at the table.....

I say this because even if the chest you open, is randomly selected
"as" you open them, but done server-side, there may have been 100
other chests opened before you you opened your next chest. Thus
an xtra 100 times the RND function was used between it being used
to determine your chest prize. If this is done client-side, then still
the nember generated will be every 4th number, cause after that....
3 more chests need to be randomly picked before you open 1 again.

If we go back to the dice example, but say we're look'n at every 4th attempt.
We also can say we're only looking for a 1. Now lets say the following are
the next 24 rolls ..... 2 1 3 6 5 4 6 3 1 2 5 4 2 4 3 6 1 5 2 6 5 3 1 4

We can see that a perfect distribution occured. Every 6 rolls, 1 each of the 6
sides occured, but because we weren't opening a chest on all 24 randoms,
instead of the basic 1 in 6 odds, we got 2 in 6 instead. Perfect distributions
don't happen, but what can happen is you don't get a 1, on the every 4th
try, longterm, 1 of 6 tries. Its actually more often than not, (in this case, the
hypothetical ) for you to get either more or less 1s than you normally should.

This is whats reported in Elvenar..... more often you get screwed or you get
really lucky, than you ever do just getting the std odds.

( and ) all of this assumes the RNG is on the up&up ..... lololol

 

[crackie]

Beta peeps, are there Phoenix artifact conversion recipes available for this event?

 

[Lelanya]

Beta peeps, are there Phoenix artifact conversion recipes available for this event?

Yes

 

[Jackluyt]

Beta peeps, are there Phoenix artifact conversion recipes available for this event?

You can use 2 new phoenix artifacts to craft the Tome of Phoenix, which contains all kinds of previous Phoenix artifacts (original, Ashen, Coldfire).
You can pick which one of them you want.

Once you have made your choice, that artifact will move to your Instants section of Inventory.

 

[Killy-]

Thus an xtra 100 times the RND function was used between it being used
to determine your chest prize.

Well that is actually good, your price is than just random, like it is supposed to. I think you are misunderstanding the law of large numbers. The "even out part" doesn't happen, because it is determined to do that.

If we go back to the dice example, but say we're look'n at every 4th attempt.
We also can say we're only looking for a 1. Now lets say the following are
the next 24 rolls ..... 2 1 3 6 5 4 6 3 1 2 5 4 2 4 3 6 1 5 2 6 5 3 1 4

We can see that a perfect distribution occured.

Same here, this distribution isn't random at all and if that is how you think about it, probability calculation will not make sense to you.

 

[BrinDarby]

Same here, this distribution isn't random at all and if that is how you think about it, probability calculation will not make sense to you.

yes it is random, the 1 thru 6 were randomly picked, even tho I said a perfect distribution
doesn't usually happen. They were picked 4 times.....

I think you are misunderstanding the law of large numbers.

probability calculation will not make sense to you.

You're making a bad assumption there, ( its wrong )....
but feel free to tell me you can solve PvNP, cause I can.

 

[Moho]

I've never heard of this, of course, but now I see P vs NP problem is one of the seven Millennium Prize Problems selected by the Clay Mathematics Institute, each of which carries a 1 mil prize for the first correct solution.

 

[Soleil Nightbloom]

Does anyone from Beta or @helya know if the Day 12 daily prize for the upcoming event is specific to your current chapter? According to iDavis’ website the Day 12 daily prize is Rune Shards. I know a few of the prizes are chapter specific, however I would like to know if this particular one is?

 

[Enevhar Aldarion]

Does anyone from Beta or @helya know if the Day 12 daily prize for the upcoming event is specific to your current chapter? According to iDavis’ website the Day 12 daily prize is Rune Shards. I know a few of the prizes are chapter specific, however I would like to know if this particular one is?

If I am remembering correctly, they should be. My chapter 16 city got offered rune shards for the chapter 16 AWs. And when I did rerolls, the exact same rune shard prize came up again.

 

[Lelanya]

Does anyone from Beta or @helya know if the Day 12 daily prize for the upcoming event is specific to your current chapter? According to iDavis’ website the Day 12 daily prize is Rune Shards. I know a few of the prizes are chapter specific, however I would like to know if this particular one is?

Yes @Soleil Nightbloom
My fellows and I discussed this. It is 2 rune shards from a Wonder of your last chapter. We're not sure what chapter 1 or 2 would get, however. I am early Orcs and received 2 Blooming Trader rune shards. One of my fellows was researching the scout in a new chapter and she did not get a rune shard for the Wonders that she just researched.

 

[Tehya1]

We're not sure what chapter 1 or 2 would get, however.

Probably supplies. lol

 

[Soleil Nightbloom]

Thanks so much, @Enevhar Aldarion & @Lelanya! This was very helpful

 

[Flashfyre]

One of my fellows was researching the scout in a new chapter and she did not get a rune shard for the Wonders that she just researched.

This is exactly why I hustled to get into the new chapter this morning, so I wouldn't get stuck with everything being a chapter behind as soon as I got it.