I had provinces designated hard/very hard from chapter two through chapter six *without* being overscouted because when I started playing it was inadvisable to take optional SSUs. I had no problem catering those provinces and certainly did not see it as a waste of resources. That was also before the spire existed and obviously before the tournament changes. But after the Spire was introduced and before the SS formula changed I still did the same with newer cities for awhile, not trusting where the formula would end up, and had no problems because I just didn't go higher in the Spire than was sustainable for each city.
I would advise new players not to overscout by more than a few provinces over what is needed for the next chapter until at least chapter seven/eight. But I am also against telling people the "right" way to play the game, so I always try to remember to say, "This is what worked for me, and why," when I give advice. To me, the orc wall is the only hard limit (and even that can be overcome with diamonds if one desires and can afford it).
I don't think it can be stressed enough that "success" in this game is defined by each player for themselves (and then sometimes by finding like-minded people in a FS). Your priorities influence your strategy and not everyone has the same priorities.
It may be incredibly naive of me, but I try to spin the lack of in-game information about things in a positive light by saying it is INNO's way of giving us the most room to make our own choices.
More information about the possible consequences would be great, but what would it say? You may not be able to solve these encounters for awhile and that could be bad because you might need to do them for an event quest? (Obviously sarcasm but the question is sincere.)