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    Your Elvenar Team

Easter set almost impossible to get?

Ashrem

Ashrem

Oh Wise One
Pheryll said:
Of course, some may note that if you are interested in the maximum hours for time instants, then waiting for the time instants to be a daily prize and using the small chest then will net better results than the large chest, and the table does not address that particular scenario.
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Just in case it isn't accounted for, Does that take into account that a Miss on the 20 hour timer might get you several 14 hour timers, instead of 5 hour timers? it looks like it, but I hate to assume.
 
Pheryll

Pheryll

Set Designer
The number of essences per hour for both small and large chest are very close. It does not take much for an increased chance of daily prize to sway the hour accumulation when a time instant is the daily prize.
 
Pheryll

Pheryll

Set Designer
Just so others know how to calculate in the effect of a time instant as a daily prize, what you are doing is taking half the harmonic mean of the essences per 1 hour and the essences per daily prize divided by the number of hours offered. So let's say the daily prize is one 20 hour instant. The large chest would be requiring 1/(1/(412/20) + 1/24.524) = 11.20 essences per hour of instant. The small chest would be requiring 1/(1/(360.857/20) + 1/26.737) = 10.78 essences per hour of instant. Thus even an insignificant time prize for the daily will produce more total time with the small chest than with the large.
 
Deborah M

Deborah M

Oh Wise One
:oops: I couldn't help it. Planned to hold off putting these out to save space for a couple of weeks. The set and other prizes look very nice so far :D Just waiting for a couple of older culture items' visit boost to be done to see what a few more of them look like.
 
Ashrem

Ashrem

Oh Wise One
SoggyShorts said:
{irrelevant stuff}
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Well I just want to know if the wishing well is going to be coming or not. Because I shouldn't have to look at any previous messages to see what's happening. My computer should read my mind and know what I want and directly input the answer to me with no effort.
 

DeletedUser

Guest
Right, but instead of replying to me, you could have responded directly to @Marvelgirl, so that she would have the correct information. :D
 

DeletedUser13002

Guest
Pheryll said:
Just so others know how to calculate in the effect of a time instant as a daily prize, what you are doing is taking half the harmonic mean of the essences per 1 hour and the essences per daily prize divided by the number of hours offered. So let's say the daily prize is one 20 hour instant. The large chest would be requiring 1/(1/(412/20) + 1/24.524) = 11.20 essences per hour of instant. The small chest would be requiring 1/(1/(360.857/20) + 1/26.737) = 10.78 essences per hour of instant. Thus even an insignificant time prize for the daily will produce more total time with the small chest than with the large.
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I'm nodding like I'm fascinated ... when all I see when I read this is, "Numbers blah blah numbers blah blah blah more numbers blah blah numbers blah." I'm drooling idiot when it comes to the maths...!

Since reading this thread I've switched to opening just the small chests, instead of only opening the large ones (as I've done for the longest time). From a practical point of view, I think it's a much better approach. I always thought I'd never be able to reach the third Grand Prize with the smalls, because there just aren't enough feathers there. But of course, that's all wrong.

Let me try my hand at some (much more basic!) math: Opening 2 large chests costs me 280 essence. Opening 6 small chests costs 300, roughly the same amount. But with the odds of getting free essence so much higher, I'm likely to get at least 2 shots of it somewhere in those 6 chests, so I wind up opening around 8 at the same cost (possibly even less, if I score the 90-point versions). It's possible I'll get a free booster in those 2 large chests, but pretty iffy. If I don't, and I keep things even for this example, that means I wind up with 6 items from the smalls as opposed to just 2 items from the larges—with a pretty good chance that one of them will be the daily prize, along with some decent instants as well. They may not be as big as what you get from the large ones, but the aggregate gained over the course of an entire event would give you pretty much the same effect—and split into much more reasonable iterations, too. No more wrestling with whether to spend a 14-hour instant to wrap up a production with 5 hours left. Even a 10-hour production can be more practically dealt with, since I'll probably end up with a lot more 5-hour instants than 14s anyway. And the end result toward the Grand Prizes is the same: 40 feathers gained.

It's all odds and percentages and rolling the dice and such, but I can say that it feels like I'm getting a lot more out of the small chests, and there's a lot less of the burden that comes with gambling so much essence on one roll—and a lot less frustration when it doesn't come through. Works for me.
 
samidodamage

samidodamage

Buddy Fan Club member
UniCity said:
it feels like I'm getting a lot more out of the small chests
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My really basic math agrees with yours, lol, but for a different reason. Random chance (like flipping a coin) means that with really bad 'luck' I can flip that coin 10 times and get all tails (bust). The chance I'll flip it 100 times and still end up with all tails (while possible) is not nearly as likely. So, by opening the small chests, you 'even out' the chances and increase your opportunity for a win.
Now, the caveat is, I have yet to try for the 3rd GP. That entails using as many essence as possible on double feather days and so far, there have been other daily buildings that interested me more than the third GP, so I've saved my essence (or whatever in the event) for those days instead of double days.
 

DeletedUser14396

Guest
So in basic terms, it's better to open small chests as opposed to large ones?

Also, I see several people talking about the wishing well and wondering if it will come back around again. What I'm curious about is if anyone knows if the pavillion will make it's way around again. I was only able to get one lighthouse, but after several attempts at the pavillion I wasn't able to get any of them.

Also, so far I've seen a list of 86 quests to get get sky essence, not counting the daily ones. Does anyone know if they will be repeated? I'm trying to figure out how in the world I'm going to be able to get enough feathers for the grand prizes. I just don't see how I can make that.
 
samidodamage

samidodamage

Buddy Fan Club member
Feinor said:
I'm trying to figure out how in the world I'm going to be able to get enough feathers for the grand prizes. I just don't see how I can make that.
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I believe the only way to get the 3rd grand prize without spending diamonds is to spend all your essence on double feather days, opening the large chest, as well as collecting all fallen eggs(so collect several times/day to avoid losing any drops) and completing all 86 sequential quests and all of the daily quest. In the last event, that guaranteed enough feathers(or whatever they were then) without spending diamonds. My understanding for this event is that it is not guaranteed because it's only 86 quests. Last event went for a longer period of time and had more sequential quests. I think you're still guaranteed to get the 1st and 2nd if you complete the quest lines.
 
SoggyShorts

SoggyShorts

Mathematician par Excellence
It's around 50% if you go all in on double days*. Prize #1&2 are 100%

*Note: the 3rd grand prize isn't that great without more of the set.
 

DeletedUser14396

Guest
This makes me sad. If I had known I had to work so hard to maybe still not get it, I wouldn't have even tried. If I wanted to work my butt off and not expect anything in return, I'd stick to real life. :D
 

DeletedUser14684

Guest
HJK84 said:
Check Junk mail.
I went through hell trying to launch the link given in the email. Cause of add-on blocks and other things... ugh took 20mins. to find a way to get +100, lol
At 3416 now.
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Thank you! I didn't know about this, and there it was. Free sky essences! <3
 

DeletedUser3622

Guest
This is an unfortunately sad trap of an event. I'd say "shame on you Inno" but, hey, it's here to make them money after all. Just feels dirty that they're taking advantage of the general public who don't do the math ahead of time to find out they'll need to spend diamonds to get the third prize.
 
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