The Unbeliever
Well-Known Member
Ah, but don't you ALSO require 2 of each of the daily set buildings in order to get everything into a nice, neat rectangle arrangement?! 
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Your Elvenar Team
Easter set almost impossible to get?
- Thread starter SoggyShorts
- Start date
DeletedUser6189
Guest
Nice job, @Pheryll !
I'm not big with stats. I just do real basic calculation. So it's awesome that you guys followed up on this a bit more.
So to make sure I'm understanding things right ...
If I ONLY OPEN SMALL CHESTS ...
.... I can open 44 small chests for daily prizes (like the Lighthouse or Wishing Well, etc.) ....
.... then I need to open 123 small chests on days that offer double feathers.
That will offer the BEST POSSIBLE CHANCE of getting ALL THREE Grand Prizes?
I'm not big with stats. I just do real basic calculation. So it's awesome that you guys followed up on this a bit more.
So to make sure I'm understanding things right ...
If I ONLY OPEN SMALL CHESTS ...
.... I can open 44 small chests for daily prizes (like the Lighthouse or Wishing Well, etc.) ....
.... then I need to open 123 small chests on days that offer double feathers.
That will offer the BEST POSSIBLE CHANCE of getting ALL THREE Grand Prizes?
DeletedUser3468
Guest
Has anyone figured just plain luck into this? Just tried for the Flower Cage. I was only going to make one attempt since I wanted to hold onto essence for the double day. I ended up making 6 tries because I kept getting extra essence. Out of 6 tries I got 140 essence twice and 200 essence twice. Sadly, I did not get the Flower Cage... sigh! (but I did get the first grand prize... plus a bunch of points towards the second one.)
(but I did get the first grand prize... plus a bunch of points towards the second one.)
SoggyShorts
Mathematician par Excellence
That's....not really possible. We can calculate probabilities, but guessing where one specific player will land is just guessing.
Flip a coin, we know it's 50:50, but for your specific coin toss, I have no way of knowing if it will be heads or tails.
Pheryll
Set Designer
The 44 chests are intended for the lighthouse and pavilion. If you are looking at additional items (like the wishing well) then you might not be able to afford the third grand prize. The numbers given are for an average. If you are lucky on the daily buildings, plan on being unlucky on the Grand prize and reserve more essences for chests there (for the Grand prize you are looking for the sky essence rewards to perpetuate your chest openings). If a large number of people play by this strategy and collect enough essences then many of them (but by no means all) will be able to achieve the grand prize plus the daily buildings.
DeletedUser6189
Guest
Got it.
I'm not really going for the set buildings (as cool as they are). So I'll just pick 2-3 other daily buildings (like the wishing well), and use the 44 chests on those.
Ashrem
Oh Wise One
I have been convinced for a while that the daily collection is improved, with missed wilderness-eggs showing up more than on/hour after I log back in.
Unless I am worse at math than I thought, the essences are doing better than 24/day (even though I sleep a minimum 8 hours a day, and should be missing a minimum of 2/day. I'll let others check the math:
We've had 8 daily quests, and I am finished the main sequence. I have completed all 8 daily quests. That is 2788+(8*35)=3068. I have 3310, which is 242 extra essences. The event started 6 days and 19 hours ago, which (at 24/day) would be 163. That implies to me that I am collecting at lest 10/day more than 24.
I did NOT get the 100 free essences email.
HJK84
Well-Known Member
Check Junk mail.
I went through hell trying to launch the link given in the email. Cause of add-on blocks and other things... ugh took 20mins. to find a way to get +100, lol
At 3416 now.
Ashrem
Oh Wise One
Thanks, but I check my junk mail every day, more than once. I still have the email for the 100 free keys in the winter event, but have not received one for this one. That was not (particularly) a complaint, simply information that none of my essences are a result of that.
SoggyShorts
Mathematician par Excellence
I can't find it atm, but I think the ratio is 13:4:1
Meaning of 18 collects you should get one 3x and four 2x and 13 singles which would give you 24 in 18 hours.
Or an average of 1.27 ess per click.
If you are only missing 2 per day you should get ~28 ess per day.
Ashrem
Oh Wise One
See, that's the thing, I think I'm getting 34-36/day, even though I miss 2 picks.
juniperknome
Well-Known Member
i do'nt do the set buildings way too much space for the gain i was hoping for the orc buildings i just opened orcs when the contest started
SoggyShorts
Mathematician par Excellence
280 from 8 daily quests so far
2788 from main quests
50 starting ess (at least I think we always start with 50?)
---------
3118 ess
You have 3310 ess
That's 192 extra
If the average is 1.27 per click that's
192/1.27=151 clicks
6 days 19h you said. missing 2/d with sleep
(24-2)*6+19=151 clicks
That worked out even better than I thought it would
Of course if I'm wrong, and we don't start with 50 then you are getting well above average.
DeletedUser16017
Guest
Was the wishing well only available the first day? I have a feeling I missed it.Settles it, I'm not going for the Prizes! Only Wishing Wells
DeletedUser13002
Guest
I still don't get all the math myself, but ... I've always only opened the big chests for the higher chances at the daily reward (I thought that's what it was all about). But if the odds of recycling essence are higher in the small chest, that would give you more chances at the daily prize anyway, and increase your score for the Grand Prizes. Am I understanding this correctly...?
Ashrem
Oh Wise One
I think that is the consensus, but I don't remember the most recent highly-detailed breakdown (because it depends on whether you'd rather get extra KP if you miss the daily prize, or 14 hour instants vs 5 hour instants). In my opinion, the differences are so small that you will get more satisfaction out of deciding what you'd like to get as your off-prizes and picking accordingly.
Pheryll
Set Designer
The most detail you need for determining the better chest for certain rewards is the average sky essence expenditure, the table can be found on page 1 of this thread. Of course, some may note that if you are interested in the maximum hours for time instants, then waiting for the time instants to be a daily prize and using the small chest then will net better results than the large chest, and the table does not address that particular scenario.