The Unbeliever
Well-Known Member
Ah, but don't you ALSO require 2 of each of the daily set buildings in order to get everything into a nice, neat rectangle arrangement?!
That's....not really possible. We can calculate probabilities, but guessing where one specific player will land is just guessing.Has anyone figured just plain luck into this?
Nice job, @Pheryll !
I'm not big with stats. I just do real basic calculation. So it's awesome that you guys followed up on this a bit more.
So to make sure I'm understanding things right ...
If I ONLY OPEN SMALL CHESTS ...
.... I can open 44 small chests for daily prizes (like the Lighthouse or Wishing Well, etc.) ....
.... then I need to open 123 small chests on days that offer double feathers.
That will offer the BEST POSSIBLE CHANCE of getting ALL THREE Grand Prizes?
The 44 chests are intended for the lighthouse and pavilion. If you are looking at additional items (like the wishing well) then you might not be able to afford the third grand prize. The numbers given are for an average. If you are lucky on the daily buildings, plan on being unlucky on the Grand prize and reserve more essences for chests there (for the Grand prize you are looking for the sky essence rewards to perpetuate your chest openings). If a large number of people play by this strategy and collect enough essences then many of them (but by no means all) will be able to achieve the grand prize plus the daily buildings.
I have been convinced for a while that the daily collection is improved, with missed wilderness-eggs showing up more than on/hour after I log back in.@Balderdinger on US live posted an interesting bit of information:
Essence gains:
2788 Main quest
875 Daily quests
600 collected ess (assuming 1 per hour)
Thanks, but I check my junk mail every day, more than once. I still have the email for the 100 free keys in the winter event, but have not received one for this one. That was not (particularly) a complaint, simply information that none of my essences are a result of that.Check Junk mail.
I went through hell trying to launch the link given in the email. Cause of add-on blocks and other things... ugh took 20mins. to find a way to get +100, lol
At 3416 now.
I can't find it atm, but I think the ratio is 13:4:1the essences are doing better than 24/day
See, that's the thing, I think I'm getting 34-36/day, even though I miss 2 picks.If you are only missing 2 per day you should get ~28 ess per day.
280 from 8 daily quests so farSee, that's the thing, I think I'm getting 34-36/day, even though I miss 2 picks.
Was the wishing well only available the first day? I have a feeling I missed it.Settles it, I'm not going for the Prizes! Only Wishing Wells
I think that is the consensus, but I don't remember the most recent highly-detailed breakdown (because it depends on whether you'd rather get extra KP if you miss the daily prize, or 14 hour instants vs 5 hour instants). In my opinion, the differences are so small that you will get more satisfaction out of deciding what you'd like to get as your off-prizes and picking accordingly.I still don't get all the math myself, but ... I've always only opened the big chests for the higher chances at the daily reward (I thought that's what it was all about). But if the odds of recycling essence are higher in the small chest, that would give you more chances at the daily prize anyway, and increase your score for the Grand Prizes. Am I understanding this correctly...?