Dwarves: finished layout
http://www.elvenarchitect.com/city/planner/395fccc6d3c44a61b3cc6a5993a7432c/
The total devoted to dwarven buildings is 139 tiles.
Portal: L4 required 25 tiles
Granite 11 @ L4
Copper 5 @ L3
I planned well and carefully from the start, including numerous layouts as the portal upgraded. The space used was reserved right from the beginning of the chapter. I used a 30 KP per day rate for my planning, but as I progressed I found that a more accurate average for my rate is 37 KP per day. That difference lead to a week of being tech-locked at the end. Planning: 7 (I would say 8, but my error makes it a 7)
I have a high tolerance for being tech-locked as upgrading my wonders have solid long term benefits. Tech-lock tolerance: 9
Additionally the summer event, "March of the Herds", was occurring as I progressed through this chapter. The event caused me to accelerate some province encounters and increase tournament activity which progressed me through some researches sooner than I had planned. Rewards of knowledge points from opening chests in the event went to wonders and did not affect my progress.
I had originally planned to have 10 granite and 6 copper, but as I ran the calculations early in the chapter I found that 6 copper was more than needed and 10 granite was not enough. I did have 6 @ L1 copper for a time, but sold that sixth and rearranged to accommodate an additional granite. My calculations had indicated that the granite mines would need to go to L4, but copper foundries could stay at L2. Perhaps if I had kept 6 that would have been true for the foundries, but later calculations figured I would be tech-locked for about 11 days if I did not upgrade the copper foundries. The total time to recover the costs for the upgrades for all 5 to L3 was only 1.5 days and my production calculations indicated the 5 L3 foundries would be adequate to avoid further tech-lock; so that was clearly the better choice.
I should note here that I am a highly active player able to consistently run 6 productions at 3 hours each day. Knowing your own play style and capabilities is key to properly calculating how fast you will progress through the chapter, and therefore your production needs.
In the end it was the granite that lagged behind and still pinned me with over a week of being tech-locked. I might have been able to avoid that time if I had aimed straight for the granite research, but I needed the residence research to begin shifting my layout so I could ensure space for the event. Again the event pushed me to gain many KP that I could have delayed until much better timing in the chapter. Upgrades are very important in the dwarven chapter.
In my opinion, and with all the supporting math I have done, the correct formula is to build granite mines beyond your plans using all possible space. Upgrade all the granite mines you plan to keep. Next upgrade the portal, then begin selling extra L1 granite mines and building copper foundries in the freed space. Upgrade all final granite mines and copper foundries, then upgrade the portal. Upgrade all granite mines and copper foundries, then upgrade the portal. Finally begin progressing on research. Being tech-locked earlier and intentionally saves a much longer period of unintentional tech-lock.