Steelhail
Member
Consolidation of encounters have no impact on average expected value of losses, wins ...So you're more likely to deviate from the expected values, but it works both ways - positive and negative....So yeah, bad matchups would cost 4x. Good matchups would cost 4x just as well. The expected total values though stay exactly the same.
I keep seeing this, but it ought to also work in reverse, right? Yes, an unusually bad fight counts four times as much, but so does an unusually good one.
I do agree that consolidating 4 encounters to 1 is overall better. And I generally defer to MinMax on all things math. However, I would add to @Ashrem that, since the update simultaneously normalizes 5 enemy slots, it seems the update also reduces the frequency of those "unusually good" battles the old system used to give even in the upper-level provinces: 1-2 enemy unit slots are generally the best (see below if unconvinced). INNO's consolidation seems more like taking 4 different encounters (in the present system), dropping the highest-scoring encounter, and then averaging the three remaining into one number for the new system. (I am a self-professed humanities nerd, so if my attempt at mathing crashes and burns, please forgive me.)
For example, compare using human priests (spell buff of divine curse is -40% opponent defense) to a fight against only two enemy unit slots vs. five enemy unit slots:
2 ENEMY SLOTS:
-only have to cast divine curse twice total for full effect
-can be attacked by a max of 2 enemy buffs per turn
-autocombat priests only have to dodge 2 enemy units
-lineup with max. of 2 types are easier to balance against (e.g., LR+HM--maybe use toads instead)
5 ENEMY SLOTS:
-have to cast divine curse at least five times total for full effect
-can be attacked by a max of five enemy buffs per turn
-5 enemy units escalate "idiot AI" factor, where priests move within strike range of one enemy unit to take out a different unit
-more potential for diverse, trickier lineup (e.g., LR+HM+mage).
It seems pretty likely to me that excluding the 1-2 enemy lineup out of the gate is going to decrease the current percentage of "easiest" battles and thus the average expected ratio of wins and losses. I'm not complaining about the 4-->1 change here. But it doesn't seem a straightforward consolidation if you're comparing the 4 encounters now with the 1 encounter in future.