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    Your Elvenar Team

Spire squad size calc - we need your data!

  • Thread starter Deleted User - 3932582
  • Start date

Deleted User - 3932582

Guest
EDIT @ 2020-06-08: The project is officially closed as we have achieved success (for now ;)).
See https://us.forum.elvenar.com/index....size-calc-we-need-your-data.22265/post-180993 for conclusion.
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Alright, so there were many questions and speculations about how Spire squad sizes are calculated. As far as I can tell, the calculation was never disclosed, except for statements that many different things have an impact on that - including total AW levels. Over the last few months we've been collecting some data on the Spire, trying to figure out what the dependencies are. And we always can use more data!

Model v5.0: https://minmaxgame.com/spire-squad-size-model-v5-0/
Google Sheets calculator for the Model v5.0

Model Iteration 1: https://minmaxgame.com/spire-squad-size-iteration-1/
Model Iteration 2: https://minmaxgame.com/spire-squad-size-iteration-2/

Model v2.1: https://minmaxgame.com/spire-squad-size-model-v2-1/
Model v2.1 - Expansions: https://minmaxgame.com/spire-squad-size-expansions-model-v2-1/
Model v2.1 - Ancient Wonders: https://minmaxgame.com/spire-squad-size-ancient-wonders-model-v2-1/
Model v2.1 - Research: https://minmaxgame.com/spire-squad-size-research-model-v2-1/
Model v2.1 - Misc: https://minmaxgame.com/spire-squad-size-misc-model-v2-1/

Model v3.0: https://minmaxgame.com/spire-squad-size-model-v3-0/

Model v4.0: https://minmaxgame.com/spire-squad-size-model-v4-0/
Model v4.1: https://minmaxgame.com/spire-squad-size-model-v4-1/

I am looking for volunteers who can collect some data on the Spire over a period of time, and either post it here or send it to me via a PM. It's not a lot of work - you just need to record a few numbers once a week, when Spire appears on Sunday (as all Spire numbers are fixed when it spawns). But the real value is in consistent observations over a few weeks in the same city.

So here are the things that I am looking for (so far):
Code: 
chapter/ MH level / Open provinces / AW levels / SS size / Total placed expansions [ResearchExp : Premium Exp] / Total unlocked mandatory research => own Spire squad size / enemy Spire squad size [date]

So one weekly observation may look like this:
Code: 
16 / 35 / 440 / 197 / 2730 / 120 [47:9] / 390 => 3316 / 1473 [2020-05-10]

If you can, report from the higher levels encounters - the higher the numbers, the better. Just make a note of which encounter you're reporting from. But this is not super important (more important for lower level cities), you can report from just the first encounter. This means you don't even have to play the Spire at all in order to contribute. Number of provinces is likely not important, but I keep it there in case we'll need it (and to do some error checking on number of provinces). Timing, on the other hand, is important - take a weekly snapshot as close to the Spire spawning (Sunday 10am Eastern) as possible.

Many of the numbers on the left side can be seen in tooltips in the trader seeds calculation (if you have Advanced Trader), as well as in updated Elvenstats data (make sure it is updated!)
  • Total number of unlocked mandatory tech items
    • A tricky one, but details on how to calculate it are here ;)
    • Bonus points for identifying current state of the research with a screenshot, and list all the skipped research items in previous chapters)
  • Split of placed expansions between map/research/premium

Now, to make things much more helpful, you can try to keep as many variables on the left as possible constant week over week - at least over 2 weeks. That's probably only realistic for end-game players; those in this position can keep chapter / MH level and SS size constant easily (maxed out), and if you can postpone opening new provinces for some time (scouting is still fine), that would leave only AW levels as a variable (that's what I've been doing for a while). That would be super helpful. But all results would help, even though with multiple variable changing it may take much longer to figure out the dependencies.

We're also expanding our dataset with more targeted experiments. Our weekly data samples of the real cities are great for control purposes, but it will be hard to get more insights without ability to nudge only specific parameters - which is hard in live cities. So what I am looking for are some dormant / inactive / frozen cities that you have access to. It's for science! ;) So here are the requirements:
- Access to Spire, so chapter 3+
- Ability to make no changes to the city except for the ones that are part of the experiment - for a few weeks
- No changes means no research, no new expansions, no construction / upgrades
- Production / collection, scouting, map negotiation, tournament playing, KP donations are all fine! (but the less activity there is, the better)
- You do NOT need to actually play the Spire (but you can if you want to, it doesn't seem to have any impact)
- Ability to do some research/place some AWs and/or expansions (but there are some experiments that don't require that)

Abandoned cities would work great for that; so would diamond farms.

- Place some KPs into research, but don't unlock it
- Unlock some research without donating any KPs
- Build 1x L1 AW (different ones)
- Upgrade 1x AW (different ones)
- Place 1x (or more) expansions
- Upgrade Main Hall
- There could be more, depending on results

So if you have access to such city(-ies), message me and we can figure out what's the best experiment for what you have (and what's needed). And remember - it is all for science! ;)

Also, looking for a few more people with 300+ total AW levels in the end game for a few more usual datapoints. This, as usual, can be private.

Thanks for your help!
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Enevhar Aldarion

Enevhar Aldarion

Oh Wise One
End of chapter 15/ MH 35/ completed provinces 541/ AW levels 166 (72 are military AW levels if that matters)/ max Squad size of 4626 (actual troop production per slot of 7275 if that matters)/ first fight on first floor - my squad: 3113 and enemy squad: 1383

I looked at the squad numbers before and after adding a level to my Flying Academy and there was not even a single troop change between 165 and 166 AW levels (71 and 72 military levels).
 

Deleted User - 1599294

Guest
End Chp 15 / 35 / 477 / 154 / 3108 => 3019 / 1341 [2020-03-15]
 

Deleted User - 3932582

Guest
Enevhar Aldarion said:
I looked at the squad numbers before and after adding a level to my Flying Academy and there was not even a single troop change between 165 and 166 AW levels (71 and 72 military levels).
Click to expand...
Have you looked at that over the course of 2 weeks? Because once Spire is spawned, all the numbers are fixed. You can add 100 AW levels and it won't change the numbers the same week. It will change numbers in the next week's Spire.
 
Enevhar Aldarion

Enevhar Aldarion

Oh Wise One
MinMax Gamer said:
Have you looked at that over the course of 2 weeks? Because once Spire is spawned, all the numbers are fixed. You can add 100 AW levels and it won't change the numbers the same week. It will change numbers in the next week's Spire.
Click to expand...

Is it once it has spawned or once you actually enter it that your numbers are set for the week? Though I guess there is no way to know that.

But regardless, the only thing that will change for me between today and next Sunday will be a few AW levels, so any change I have will be easy to track.
 

Deleted User - 3932582

Guest
Enevhar Aldarion said:
Is it once it has spawned or once you actually enter it that your numbers are set for the week? Though I guess there is no way to know that.
Click to expand...
I believe it is based on spawning, not entering. There is an easy way to check for that. Make no changes in your city for one week, and then do something (e.g. add another AW level) on the second week after Spire was spawned, but before you entered it for the first time. If you still observe the same numbers as the week before, it means Spire is based on spawning; if these are different that means it is based in the first entrance. But it is spawning IIRC.
 

Deleted User - 3932582

Guest
Enevhar Aldarion said:
max Squad size of 4626
Click to expand...
So you've taken all optional SSUs, correct? If yes, then it is interesting. So you have almost double of my SS, much higher number of open provinces and just slightly lower # of AW levels. Yet your Spire squad size is only slightly higher. Interesting.
 
Pheryll

Pheryll

Set Designer
MinMax Gamer said:
So you've taken all optional SSUs, correct? If yes, then it is interesting. So you have almost double of my SS, much higher number of open provinces and just slightly lower # of AW levels. Yet your Spire squad size is only slightly higher. Interesting.
Click to expand...

Marindor did release a developer statement saying that instead of using squad size they were using other factors. I would not be surprised if squad size played no role in spire difficulty (possibly even a slight positive roll if you count AW troop production and troop instants).
 
Kekune

Kekune

Well-Known Member
I didn't see this until after doing the first floor, but I'll try to report next week. Glad you're doing this!
 

Deleted User - 3932582

Guest
Kekune said:
I didn't see this until after doing the first floor, but I'll try to report next week. Glad you're doing this!
Click to expand...
You can tell me the squad size numbers from any encounter as long as you know AW levels etc on Spire spawn. Squad size numbers within the Spire are always fixed to the base ones.
 
Kekune

Kekune

Well-Known Member
chapter 15/ MH level 33/ Open provinces 412/ AW levels 125/ SS size 2772 => own Spire squad size 7610/ enemy Spire squad size 7654 (both at the first encounter on the **2nd floor**) [3/16/20]
 

Deleted User - 3932582

Guest
Bump for people who are tracking numbers - new Spire is coming up! ;)
 
Enevhar Aldarion

Enevhar Aldarion

Oh Wise One
The only thing that will have changed for me is adding 4 or 5 AW levels, so I will just edit that in here tomorrow when I check the Spire.

After looking today, with only an increase of 5 AW levels, starting squad size increased from 3113 to 3157, or an increase of 44. Four of the five AW levels were military and one was non-military, so is it as simple as +10 SS per military AW level and +4 SS for non? That would equal the +44 increase. As for enemy squad size, it increased from 1383 to 1402, or an increase of 19. That could mean +4 SS per military and +3 for non, which would equal the +19. But I have a feeling the enemy SS is more fractional than that. Maybe +4.25 per level for military and +2 per non? That is more like the spread for my SS increase.
 
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Deleted User - 1599294

Guest
End Chp 15 / MH-35 / Compl Prov-477 / AW Levels 158 / SS 3108 =>Spire SS 6111 / 6784 [2020-03-23]. Spire SS did change for 8th battle =>9167 / 8159
 

Deleted User - 3932582

Guest
Enevhar Aldarion said:
The only thing that will have changed for me is adding 4 or 5 AW levels, so I will just edit that in here tomorrow when I check the Spire.

After looking today, with only an increase of 5 AW levels, starting squad size increased from 3113 to 3157, or an increase of 44. Four of the five AW levels were military and one was non-military, so is it as simple as +10 SS per military AW level and +4 SS for non? That would equal the +44 increase. As for enemy squad size, it increased from 1383 to 1402, or an increase of 19. That could mean +4 SS per military and +3 for non, which would equal the +19. But I have a feeling the enemy SS is more fractional than that. Maybe +4.25 per level for military and +2 per non? That is more like the spread for my SS increase.
Click to expand...
You're jumping to conclusions way too fast - there is no way to establish that dependency based on just 2 datapoints ;) I can tell you that it is definitely not as simple as that (just look at alainemk numbers). Things would be more convoluted because Inno likes to do weird roundings in calculations, so something that might be just a linear dependency will look pretty jagged and not straight over relatively small changes.

Having said that, I doubt that there is a difference between military and non-military AWs. First of all, defining what military AW is is kinda sketchy. And we already know that they use AW level mechanism elsewhere in the game (Trader bonus), and this one is just straight total levels. I'd consider more likely that dependency over total levels is a step-function, i.e. there is a certain factor for one range of total AWs, then a different one for a higher range etc.

So far, I've seen incremental factors of 4.25-9.33 per AW level (for own base squad), with my own data pretty linear over the longer term with about 6.5 factor. I don't know if this is specific to my setup though. So we'll see, but so far observations are broadly consistent with that.

Also, while you and I may think that nothing in the city changed except the AW levels, it might not be true. There could be all kinds of things mucking up the calculation. I know that I certainly built and rebuilt a number of buildings, placed some summonings, changed pop and culture, changed goods levels, scouted etc over that time. Any of those things may have an impact on Spire SS numbers. It's even worse for people not in the end game, as they have more variables (and it is almost certain that chapter progress plays a factor). Multivariate analysis like that may need a ton of datapoints to establish relationships (and we may not even get there if it's tricky enough).
 
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