Gripe and Bemoan the Horrors of (BAD) Cross-tier (ALWAYS)

[Deleted User - 3932582]

I'm curious to see any mathematical modeling anyone has done based on the UTILITY of goods at various levels (as opposed to their COST to produce).

Soggy pointed out above that modeling that would be exceedingly difficult as there are just too many variables for any individual. However, we do have just such a mechanism that allows to figure out "utility" - or "value" - of those goods in aggregate. It's called market price discovery. One can argue if Elvenar trading is a truly free market, but it is a reasonable approximation.

Basically, look at the speed at which trades at a particular ratio are getting cleared (outside of good samaritans from your FS). There was a time when you could post 4:1 T2/T3 trade, and it will clear in a reasonable amount of time. Post at 3:1 ratio, and it would be gone in a few hours.

This is no longer the case. Now, trades at 2.8:1 are sitting in the trader for a long time, 2:1 are not guaranteed to clear quickly either. I have even seen a number of trades at 1:1 rate sitting there for a couple of hours (I took them - I know I can offload T3 at no worse than 1:1). But realistically, 1:1 will clear very quickly, 2:1 would probably still clear relatively quickly. More than that, and you are running into situation that most people are not willing to pick up the other side of the trade.

Obviously, don't look at small size trades as these can be quite distorted by smaller players who don't know what good value is (retail market ) Wholesale market is quite efficient - even if there are players who don't know what the good value is, and post below prevailing prices (e.g. 1:1 ratio), they will be quickly taken out by other savvy players, so they won't be able to distort the market for long.

 

[Crowella]

Or it's possible that third tier goods have a higher utility for newer, smaller players and this is reflected in the faster clearing of the smaller offers. Offering one explanation for larger offers staying on the market and another for smaller offers being taken quickly is possible, but it at least should be held to a higher standard of proof than the speculation that *new players probably don't know what they're doing."

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

Or it's possible that third tier goods have a higher utility for newer, smaller players and this is reflected in the faster clearing of the smaller offers. Offering one explanation for larger offers staying on the market and another for smaller offers being taken quickly is possible, but it at least should be held to a higher standard of proof than the speculation that *new players probably don't know what they're doing."

When I was in the earlier chapters, most of my smaller trades were taken by bigger players - not by other small players. Many don't care about rates for insignificant trades. I know I take all the trades of a few hundred or less regardless of boost, inventory etc. It's good karma. Not an indication of what I consider to be good value

 

[Crowella]

When I was in the earlier chapters, most of my smaller trades were taken by bigger players - not by other small players. Many don't care about rates for insignificant trades. I know I take all the trades of a few hundred or less regardless of boost, inventory etc. It's good karma. Not an indication of what I consider to be good value

I am not sure how this relates in any way to the point I was making about the trades posted by smaller players representing value to them. Of course cross-tier trades by smaller players seeking tier 3 goods are not filled by other smaller players who similarly cannot produce those goods. Whether there is utility other than goodwill for larger players who accept those trades is debatable, but is not germane to my point about the utility for the smaller players who post the trades.

 

[mucksterme]

Seeing all this math and discussion about relative utility
has me doubting my stance on frogs

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

I am not sure how this relates in any way to the point I was making about the trades posted by smaller players representing value to them. Of course cross-tier trades by smaller players seeking tier 3 goods are not filled by other smaller players who similarly cannot produce those goods. Whether there is utility other than goodwill for larger players who accept those trades is debatable, but is not germane to my point about the utility for the smaller players who post the trades.

It is pretty difficult to figure market or intrinsic value from the trades posted - you can only somewhat reasonably do it from the trades taken. This is not specific to Elvenar. Just because I can post some off-market trades does not mean that this is how much value I truly attribute to the goods. Obviously, I hope to do better than my intrinsic value when I post, so posted trades only establish upper or lower boundary of where true value is - but it can be quite away from there. If I post 1:4 scrolls for silk hoping that someone will bite (and for small trades that's quite possible), does this mean that my value for them is truly 1:4?

If you hope for your trade to clear, you post at prevailing - or slightly better - prices. If your intrinsic value is significantly different from the market view (i.e. you want to sell higher or buy lower), you won't post the trades as they won't be taken. Soggy may believe that for him T2:T3 ratio is 7:10 or something like that. I doubt he is posting trades with this ratio as I don't think there will be any takers (if he wants to sell his T2) or it will be inefficient for him (if he wants to buy T2, he can do better in the current market). The only exception is for big market makers who can move the market by themselves (don't think we really have any in Elvenar).

As long as any individual disagrees with the market (e.g. Soggy ), it is of no consequence. They just won't participate in the trades (or gain big on the other side!). However, If there are enough people believing that the current equilibrium is off, they will stop taking trades and the market will dry up, forcing posters to post better trades - so market will re-establish itself at the new equilibrium. This is what we're currently observing - yet I doubt we will drop to 1:1 and below.

TL;DR - posted trades tell little about intrinsic value. Assuming you want to buy, If you value something higher than the market you post at market or slightly better (otherwise you're leaving value on the table, and you know you can get a fill). If you value something lower than the market you don't post at all as you won't get a fill.

 

[SoggyShorts]

The only exception is for big market makers who can move the market by themselves (don't think we really have any in Elvenar).

and since your reach is limited to around 200 other players, manipulating the market like that wouldn't work anyways, except maybe with sentients, but decay and lack of value between chapters makes that pretty pointless.

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

and since your reach is limited to around 200 other players, manipulating the market like that wouldn't work anyways, except maybe with sentients, but decay and lack of value between chapters makes that pretty pointless.

It wouldn't work because any single player doesn't have massive amounts of resources material enough with relation to the aggregate market volumes on any server. But 200 players is not really an issue and otherwise would totally work. Trade value doesn't need to propagate in one hop Neighbors of neighbors, fellows etc will be eventually impacted.

Think about it - if there would be one player who can post unlimited volume of 1:1 T2/T3 trades both ways, what do you think would happen? This server will eventually equalize at 1:1 T2/T3 as arbitrage is still a thing. The fact that most players won't see trades from that market maker directly only slows price propagation, but doesn't prevent it.

 

[DeletedUser5521]

GAH!! This thread has turned into...nevermind...I'll be nice and just walk away quietly

 

[Vergazi]

I know this is a goofy idea or at least it sounds like one to even me, but was wondering numbers-wise how a one-time reset of the kp merchant ( for lack of a better term ) would have on tier3 goods supplies in the Trader? Is it possible that this could right the market a bit or is it to bonkers an idea? It would be a market manipulation like in the US when the Fed changes the Prime Rate. Yes, i do see flaws in this idea, but just kind of spitballing. Any thoughts on this?

 

[Ashrem]

I don't think it's bonkers, but I don't think it would have a significant affect. My guess is that most people don't buy a lot of KP with goods, though I could be wrong.

On the other hand, I'm definitely going to tell all my FS members to spread the word that more people should be dumping T3 goods for KP if they think they have too much.

 

[SoggyShorts]

But 200 players is not really an issue and otherwise would totally work.

Really? I mean my ~200 players consist of maybe a few dozen active players. Sure unlimited resources and unlimited time changes things, but that's not really relevant...When I was manipulating prices in WoW the only thing that really made it possible was being able to see and take all other trades.
If someone is undercutting you and you can't even see that it wouldn't really work. If several someones did it I don't see how you could dictate terms.

 

[Deleted User - 3932582]

Really? I mean my ~200 players consist of maybe a few dozen active players. Sure unlimited resources and unlimited time changes things, but that's not really relevant...When I was manipulating prices in WoW or Runescape the only thing that really made it possible was being able to see and take all other trades.
If someone is undercutting you and you can't even see that it wouldn't really work. If several someones did it I don't see how you could dictate terms.

Yes, it would work, but having (practically) unlimited resources is important in any scenario where something has overall market impact. Ability to see and take all global trades helps to speed things up, but is not necessary - market arbitrage takes care of that. Unless you believe that most players are not rational, then that goes out of the window

Again, just to be clear I don't think anyone in Elvenar can have that much in terms of resources, unless somebody is sitting on hundreds of millions (or something) of goods.

Let's say prevailing market price for T2/T3 is 4:1. Then Soggy shows up with unlimited resources, and is willing to buy and sell T2/T3 at 1:1 in any volume (this is important). Let's say that I am Soggy's neighbor who can see his trades. If I am a rational actor, what am I going to do? I am going to scoop up all the T2 from my neighbors for T3 at 4:1, and immediately offload all those T2 to Soggy at 1:1. So say I pay 1mm of T3 to my neighbors and get 4mm of T2, and then I sell these 4mm of T2 to Soggy for 4mm of T3. Wait, I just created 3mm of T3 for myself out of thin air! You better believe that I will be doing it until I can't. And because Soggy is always standing by with trading on his side, the only way this gravy train ends is when I scoop all the T2 from my neighbors. But wait, the trade is still profitable for me even if I don't get 4:1. I can easily accept 2:1 trades - it won't be as profitable, but at the end of the day it is still free goods for me. And naturally, it keeps being profitable until I receive just slightly better rate that 1:1 at which I can offload to Soggy. So I am flooding my neighbors with T3, and scooping all their T2 until the price equalizes at just slightly higher than 1:1 at which point I just can't (or can't be bothered) to run the arbitrage.

And now my neighbors are in the same situation as I was - as I am standing by to buy T2 for T3 at ultimately close to 1:1 rate (because I can immediately offload this at exactly 1:1), now they have an incentive to scoop all the T2 from their neighbors, and flood them with T3. Ultimately, prices would stabilize around 1:1 globally (minus some friction the further away from epicenter one is)

Such arbitrage doesn't take long to disappear. Getting something for nothing never lasts long

 

[SoggyShorts]

Let's say prevailing market price for T2/T3 is 4:1. Then Soggy shows up with unlimited resources, and is willing to buy and sell T2/T3 at 1:1 in any volume (this is important).

This is where you lose me. I totally get how the domino effect would work in your scenario, but not the why...what would be the point of Soggy doing that? A player who wants to control the market would need a motive. Generally, this would be profit, and I don't see how your above scenario is profitable for Soggy. It only makes sense if he either starts with billions of T3(and nothing else) or produces millions of T3 daily(and nothing else).
I think we are talking about 2 different things. Your Soggy's only motive seems to be to change the market value of T3 to be equal to T2. Some sort of deranged billionaire scenario. If that's what you're talking about, ok, sure, but I'm more interested in how it might actually be possible(or not) to manipulate the market for profit given reasonable scenarios.

Yes, it would work, but having (practically) unlimited resources is important in any scenario where something has overall market impact.

Not necessarily. I've done it in both WoW and Runescape starting with hardly more than 5-10x what a normal player might have. It's risky but the payoff is great when it works.

E.G. How I ran a market in WoW:
With global trades, a player(or group of players) who produce [planks] could constantly take all decent trades offering [planks] while posting [planks] at an inflated price, say 1.5x the going rate. If they can hang on long enough they can bend the market enough until it breaks and players simply accept that if they want [planks] in any reasonable amount of time they'll have to pay a premium.

Spoiler: "The way it is"

That's when you either double down and repeat going from 1.5 to 2 or even 2.5, or you unload everything you've accumulated being careful not to flood the market which would drop the price.(pump and dump)

There are plenty of reasons why the Elvenar trade environment isn't conducive for this sort of manipulation. Not having a standard currency for buying goods is one, and having an official "fair" rate posted by the developers is another. Also, the market is simply too large and the lack of global trade screws you because you can be undercut on all sides without even knowing it- the only players you could control the prices for would be those enveloped within your trading circle who aren't in a fellowship. That dude is screwed.

 

[Vergazi]

@SoggyShorts

 

[DeletedUser23075]

I have 3 cities. Cross tier is banned in 2 of them. I have accepted cross tier trades from my neighbors in a time of real need, but then in one city we only have like 8 active and 4 of them have my boosts.. so.. you do what you have to. I have offered cross tier but only at small levels, Like 200 of the higher tier and then asking only 50% of the tier 1. But this is rare. I am one of those that will still put out small normal trades (100 - 200) regularly even though I can do 5K trades, its just too hard on the smaller players in the FS's and neighbors to get decent trades to continue play. I want my smaller neighbors to stick to the game since It only benefits me to keep cities that actually play around me.

 

[DeletedUser20255]

I know this is a goofy idea or at least it sounds like one to even me, but was wondering numbers-wise how a one-time reset of the kp merchant ( for lack of a better term ) would have on tier3 goods supplies in the Trader? Is it possible that this could right the market a bit or is it to bonkers an idea? It would be a market manipulation like in the US when the Fed changes the Prime Rate. Yes, i do see flaws in this idea, but just kind of spitballing. Any thoughts on this?

Sorry. Don't see a connection between kp and goods market. Perhaps your spitballs have missed their mark.

 

[Vergazi]

Sorry. Don't see a connection between kp and goods market. Perhaps your spitballs have missed their mark.

Because you can buy kp with boosted goods. So..you could reset the cost in the kp selling window ( since it doesn't reset like the wholesaler ) and higher lvl players could drop some of the excess tier3 goods that is engorging the market and make it go away to some degree.

 

[Crowella]

You can only buy KP with your boosted good. The tavern and other items produce boosted and non-boosted as I understand it, so a given player doesn't have a surplus only of their boosted tier 3 good. (Although they may have a relatively larger surplus of that.) In theory people could then trade for their boosted good (or would post less of their boosted good), but I'm little skeptical this would have a significant effect. I don't have a surplus personally (or any of these items), so I can't say how it would affect my behavior.

The one similar item I do have familiarity with is a travelling merchant III, which produces non-boosted tier 3 goods. Since I'm operating at a very small scale, I actually use those non-boosted to trade for my (future) boosted tier 3 good, since I haven't built a factory nor unlocked the boost technology yet. However, I don't think the scale on which smaller players do this affects the overall market.

 

[Sir Squirrel]

I think @Vergazi is at least on the right track. They need to develop/create some more things that we (the players) would want to use T3 goods for so that those with excess of it would deplete there supply somewhat so they would be less tempted to use them to trade for tier 1 and 2. I doubt just one thing is going to be enough, but if there where enough things then maybe.