Easter set almost impossible to get?

[SoggyShorts]

@Balderdinger on US live posted an interesting bit of information:

Essence gains:
2788 Main quest
875 Daily quests
600 collected ess (assuming 1 per hour)
------
4263 ess total

So if you use
560 ess on getting a lighthouse (3 large eggs which is luckier than average)
560 ess on getting a pavillion (3 large eggs which is luckier than average)

That leaves you with
3143 ess remaining

If you spend all 3143 ess on double days (which assumes the last day is a double day) you have less than a 2% chance of getting the third grand prize.

Note: the above only gives you 1 of each building, which is not enough to get both the KP bonus and the broken shard. To get both, you need another lighthouse or pavillion, which drops your chances of having enough ess for GP3 down to well under 1%

Calculator: http://www.ballio.com/winter.php

This is an unfortunate departure from Inno's previous improvement on the prizes where it was possible to get all 3 grand prizes without spending diamonds.

 

[Pheryll]

The flaw in these calculations is that the feathers gained from fishing for the lighthouse and pavilion are not being counted. It does come really close, but on average should be achievable assuming all essences possible are collected.

 

[SoggyShorts]

The flaw in these calculations is that the feathers gained from fishing for the lighthouse and pavilion are not being counted. It does come really close, but on average should be achievable assuming all essences possible are collected.

You can input the feathers you gain from getting the LH&pav into the calculator I llinked, but they don't make much of a difference. Those 160 starting feathers bump it up to a 10% chance for 1 of each, and back down to 2% adding in 240 starting feathers and subtracting 560 ess if you get a second pav or LH for full set bonuses.

So even counting all of this in, if you need more than 4 tries at each of the lighthouse and pavilions, you are screwed.

 

[HJK84]

Settles it, I'm not going for the Prizes! Only Wishing Wells

 

[Pheryll]

You can input the feathers you gain from getting the LH&pav into the calculator I llinked, but they don't make much of a difference.

I ran those calculations taking your 4263 subtracting 560 once and treating it as a double day. The results were at 20.43% of getting the 3rd prize. My own calculations have the average a bit better. If you get all the essences then you do stand a reasonably good chance of getting the complete set. However, you will not afford much beyond that.

 

[qaccy]

Note: the above only gives you 1 of each building, which is not enough to get both the KP bonus and the broken shard. To get both, you need another lighthouse or pavillion, which drops your chances of having enough ess for GP3 down to well under 1%

It'd be nice if Inno extended the functionality of only one set building needing a road connection to the building connections themselves. Maybe they forgot that they didn't do that? I think that if you have connected set buildings, all of them should gain all applicable bonuses from being connected, even if the buildings aren't all physically touching each other. Alas, maybe it's intended that you choose between either the KP or the shard...at least it's an easy choice!

 

[Pheryll]

Just so others see how the calculations are done for an average:

First the number of essences per large chest is 140 - 200 x 0.08 - 140 x 0.15 = 103 (this number is slightly different than in previous events which had only a 13% chance of the 140 return)
The number of essences used per daily building from the large chest is 103 / 0.25 = 412
The number of essences spent on each feather is 103 / 20 = 5.15 which is halved for double day

With those numbers we take the 412 x2 essences used for daily prizes and get 412 x 2 / 5.15 = 160 feathers
All the other essences spent on double days would be (4263 - 2 x 412) x 2 / 5.15 = 1335 feathers.
Total feathers produced is an average of 1495.

 

[SoggyShorts]

I ran those calculations taking your 4263 subtracting 560 once and treating it as a double day. The results were at 20.43% of getting the 3rd prize. My own calculations have the average a bit better. If you get all the essences then you do stand a reasonably good chance of getting the complete set. However, you will not afford much beyond that.

But in order to get both the KP and broken shard bonus you need all 3 GP and either 2 LH +1 P, or 2P +1LH
getting those 3 buildings realistically should take 560+560+560 leaving you with 2583 ess to use on double days which is a 2% chance(factoring in that you have 240 feathers to start)
add in another 60 feathers for extras won getting the 3 daily buildings and you just barely break 5%

Just my opinion, but collecting 24 ess around your city every day, doing 100% of the quests and dedicating 100% of your ess to getting the full set should be much more than a 5% chance of success.

Don't forget, this all assumes that the last day is a double day. If the final double day is 5 or 6 days before the end odds get worse.

 

[Pheryll]

3 GP and either 2 LH +1 P, or 2P +1LH

I only calculated for 2 Daily Prizes: One LH and one P. That is produce rune shards when needed and switch arrangement to KP when needed, but not both at once.

 

[DeletedUser13002]

I was worried about this when I saw a set building on the second day and the first double-point day on the third. Either you had to gamble your points away for the set building, or sacrifice getting it in order to have enough to make the double-point day worth it. Whichever you choose, you're very unlikely to get the complete set. Very unsportsmanlike of Inno, who's frankly done a lot over the last few events to make things more equitable. I used to get pretty ticked about the third Grand Prize being unreachable without diamonds; then they fixed it, and while keeping it a challenge, made it possible. Now they're taking it out of our reach again.

It's almost as though once they start to achieve some balance in one problem area (the FAs, for instance), they have to compensate by throwing something else out of whack. Why is that, exactly...?

 

[Pheryll]

Don't forget, this all assumes that the last day is a double day. If the final double day is 5 or 6 days before the end odds get worse.

5 days is enough to bring the average from 1495 down to 1449 (1450 is the minimum for the 3rd grand prize).

 

[SoggyShorts]

5 days is enough to bring the average from 1495 down to 1449 (1450 is the minimum for the 3rd grand prize).

LoL somehow that would be worse for me. Being a few hundred feathers shorts of a prize is lame, but being 1 ess short? That's rage quit material.

 

[Pheryll]

Here is the best opening scenario:

Open 34 small chests to get the two daily prizes (average of 2.38 daily prizes)
Open 32 large chests on double days.

This will get you exactly 1450 feathers and averages 4159.6 essences spent

EDIT: Hold on. The percentages have significantly changed this event and the best outcome for feathers is now all small chests. Now there is no longer a need for fine tuning. Just open small chests for the daily and small chests for the double days.

 

[Pheryll]

Main change to probabilities occurred from the removal of rune shards as a prize. This shifts all other prizes as more probable and also made the change of making small chests more efficient than the others for grand prize progress.

Sky essence calculations	Small	Medium	Large

[TR1][TD]Essences per chest[/TD][TD]25.4[/TD][TD]57.7[/TD][TD]103[/TD][/TR1]
[TR2][TD]Essences per feather[/TD][TD]5.08[/TD][TD]5.77[/TD][TD]5.15[/TD][/TR2]
[TR2][TD]Essences per 1% coin[/TD][TD]11.289[/TD][TD]7.693[/TD][TD]12.005[/TD][/TR2]
[TR1][TD]Essences per 1% supply[/TD][TD]11.289[/TD][TD]7.693[/TD][TD]12.005[/TD][/TR1]
[TR2][TD]Essences per 1 hour boost[/TD][TD]26.737[/TD][TD]37.961[/TD][TD]24.524[/TD][/TR2]
[TR1][TD]Essences per daily building[/TD][TD]362.857[/TD][TD]443.856[/TD][TD]412[/TD][/TR1]
[TR2][TD]Essences per knowledge point[/TD][TD]46.182[/TD][TD]52.455[/TD][TD]37.455[/TD][/TR2]

 

[Pheryll]

Here is the best opening scenario:

Open 34 small chests to get the two daily prizes (average of 2.38 daily prizes)
Open 32 large chests on double days.

This will get you exactly 1450 feathers and averages 4159.6 essences spent

EDIT: Hold on. The percentages have significantly changed this event and the best outcome for feathers is now all small chests. Now there is no longer a need for fine tuning. Just open small chests for the daily and small chests for the double days.

Now:
Open 34 small chests to get the two daily prizes (average of 2.38 daily prizes)
Open 128 small chests on double days.

Down to 4114.8 essences spent.

 

[Pheryll]

If we want 3 daily prizes this is it:

44 small chests for daily prizes (3.08 average daily prizes)
123 small chests on double days.

4241.8 essences spent.

 

[SoggyShorts]

EDIT: Hold on. The percentages have significantly changed this event and the best outcome for feathers is now all small chests. Now there is no longer a need for fine tuning. Just open small chests for the daily and small chests for the double days.

Holy crap, I didn't even look since they've never changed the last 8 events.

 

[kctanzen]

So what I'm seeing here (blurry eyed, should go to bed, but really want to get that next production cycle started) -- small chests now have a slightly higher daily prize chance than big ones?
Unlike the last several major events?

 

[SoggyShorts]

So what I'm seeing here (blurry eyed, should go to bed, but really want to get that next production cycle started) -- small chests now have a slightly higher daily prize chance than big ones?
Unlike the last several major events?

If @Pheryll's numbers are correct (and they usually are) then the small boxes are better at everything except getting KP.

 

[Deborah M]

@UniCity I'm pretty sure that it has been discussed that they are bringing the Lighthouse back later in the event.