SoggyShorts
Mathematician par Excellence
@Balderdinger on US live posted an interesting bit of information:
Essence gains:
2788 Main quest
875 Daily quests
600 collected ess (assuming 1 per hour)
------
4263 ess total
So if you use
560 ess on getting a lighthouse (3 large eggs which is luckier than average)
560 ess on getting a pavillion (3 large eggs which is luckier than average)
That leaves you with
3143 ess remaining
If you spend all 3143 ess on double days (which assumes the last day is a double day) you have less than a 2% chance of getting the third grand prize.
Note: the above only gives you 1 of each building, which is not enough to get both the KP bonus and the broken shard. To get both, you need another lighthouse or pavillion, which drops your chances of having enough ess for GP3 down to well under 1%
Calculator: http://www.ballio.com/winter.php
This is an unfortunate departure from Inno's previous improvement on the prizes where it was possible to get all 3 grand prizes without spending diamonds.
Essence gains:
2788 Main quest
875 Daily quests
600 collected ess (assuming 1 per hour)
------
4263 ess total
So if you use
560 ess on getting a lighthouse (3 large eggs which is luckier than average)
560 ess on getting a pavillion (3 large eggs which is luckier than average)
That leaves you with
3143 ess remaining
If you spend all 3143 ess on double days (which assumes the last day is a double day) you have less than a 2% chance of getting the third grand prize.
Note: the above only gives you 1 of each building, which is not enough to get both the KP bonus and the broken shard. To get both, you need another lighthouse or pavillion, which drops your chances of having enough ess for GP3 down to well under 1%
Calculator: http://www.ballio.com/winter.php
This is an unfortunate departure from Inno's previous improvement on the prizes where it was possible to get all 3 grand prizes without spending diamonds.