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    Your Elvenar Team

Snow Flurry Probabilities (GP's and Bldgs)

DeletedUser2824

Guest
SoggyShorts said:
"If you do a job too well, you’ll get stuck with it."
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Kind of like how we will always expect event guides from you from here on out until infinity? ;) I'm sure you'll be able to slip out the back door and retire one day, but in the meantime we appreciate it. :)

And it rather seems you've garnered a code name; "the lazy guy." :p
 
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Bruce The Fierce

Member
Thank you very much for doing all this work. It is very useful to me. Now that I received the #2 prize and realize I can't get to the biggest prize, I will change my strategy and go with the smaller boxes to get more daily prizes.
 

DeletedUser2424

Guest
Bruce the Fierce said:
Thank you very much for doing all this work. It is very useful to me. Now that I received the #2 prize and realize I can't get to the biggest prize, I will change my strategy and go with the smaller boxes to get more daily prizes.
Click to expand...

If you notice in my chart, at the lower end (1-3000 flakes)... the expected number of buildings is much closer. This has to do with having less rounds to win the jackpots etc (see my "math answer" for more). In your shoes i'd base my decision more so on whether it was KP or Rune Shards that were more important to me.
 

DeletedUser3942

Guest
:confused: - I changed strategy to go for the dailies today and used the small boxes. Didn't get them at all.
Used big boxes and got them on first hit....o_O

...love the math behind your strategy tho :D
 

DeletedUser4839

Guest
Thanks for putting all this work in. And I thought I was going a little nuts by putting together an Excel spreadsheet with how much each building produces and organizing the buildings by level. o_O:p:D
 

DeletedUser4778

Guest
Lord Draconian said:
I'm hoping chaos theory works in my favor and I improve the odds by hitting the mouse button at irregular intervals while having a nervous breakdown from excessive caffeine use. :eek: o_O
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Bwahahaha! I hope ti works for both of us. Can't even go that far in this marble tourney. Sorceresses and archers are dying at a much faster rate than in the last one due to the nerfing of the sor range.


Silverfwn said:
And I thought I was going a little nuts by putting together an Excel spreadsheet with how much each building produces and organizing the buildings by level.
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I must be nuttier. I also have a spreadsheet for how much each and all residences, workshops, factories, and guest race stuff generate plus other stuff.
 
SoggyShorts

SoggyShorts

Mathematician par Excellence
Draconomicon said:
I must be nuttier. I also have a spreadsheet for how much each and all residences, workshops, factories, and guest race stuff generate plus other stuff.
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Well I have a spreadsheet that links to your spreadsheet...
mic.jpg
 

DeletedUser3613

Guest
There is one other factor that may come into play - I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere above, so ...

If you're after relics for a reason other than pure quantity, ie. you specifically want T1 (or T2, or T3) relics to increase your goods' boost, then that may influence whether you go for the Small, Medium or Large chests (respectively), because the tier of goods that you get relics for is tied to each chest.
 

DeletedUser2424

Guest
Caillean said:
:confused: - I changed strategy to go for the dailies today and used the small boxes. Didn't get them at all.
Used big boxes and got them on first hit....o_O
Click to expand...

I do not mean this response to be condescending or defensive. It's just how it reads.

That's kinda like saying when i bet on red I always win... but when i bet on black I lose.
How many rounds of each? And didn't you win snowflakes a bunch of times on the small boxes? You can't look at just the win rate you have to look at the win rate + the amount of snowflakes gained.
 

DeletedUser3942

Guest
@fasdfTTT - it was in no ways a complain of mine, I should have said that in my first post - sorry if you read it that way.
I know it is gambling. :D it might have happened with the big boxes as well I know that. just shows my kinda luck I suppose ;) Murphys Law hitting me or so ...

when I recall right I did about a little over two big boxes worth of snowflakes for the small ones so that would be 6 tries (small boxes) and unfortunately I did not get extra snowflakes once. I did get KP and relics.
For the big box I really only tried once...
 

DeletedUser3297

Guest
On live, I have 2 cities ready to go "all in" for winter stars using the smallest bets. I am hoping for 10 stars at least in each world. I don't care about any of the 3 grand prizes lol.
 

DeletedUser2191

Guest
SoggyShorts said:
Well, my wife and I grabbed 4 Snowy charming Trees on each account, our results are on the second sheet
www.tinyurl.com/soggysnow2
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I'll take 1 from each of you for my main city lol :p 10 attempts, no tree. In baby city, 10 attempts - 2 trees. Currently over 4k snowflakes remaining in each city, saving for attempts on glacier garden and/ or winter star.

Prize break down ...

Main City - 12 x 1 dust relics, 140 snowflakes x 5, 12 x 2 elixir relics, 200 snowflakes x 1, 25 kp x 1

Baby City - 2 snowy charming tree, 25 kp x 3, 12 x 1 elixir relic, 12 x 4 gem relic
 
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