Snow Flurry Probabilities (GP's and Bldgs)

[Ashrem]

I used just over 1k flakes to pick up 5 snowy charming trees. (edit: used small boxes because I should get middle grand prize anyway and won't get the big one either way) Now I just need space to put the other three....

 

[DeletedUser4778]

I got 4 snowy charming trees too. 2 out of 14 tries with the small boxes and 2 out of 5 tries with the big ones.

14 tries with small boxes netted the ff:
SCT 2x
Relics 6x
Bonus Snowflakes 2x
KP 2x
Runes 2x

5 tries with big boxes got me:
SCT 2x
Relics 1x
Bonus Snowflakes 2x

Pretty happy with results. Wanted to save everything for Winter Stars but wasn't sure of the odds and how un/lucky I could be getting those.

 

[DeletedUser5800]

Big Box 12 rolls, 340 Flakes back, 4 Trees and I know when to walk away from the table.
1. 25 kp
2. 140 sf
3. 12 g.relics
4. tree
5. 200 sf
6. 12 g.relics
7. 25 kp
8. tree
9. 12 d.relics
10. tree
11. 12 g.relics
12. tree

I want even talk about gems being my boost and those 36 relics.. or that I finished advanced scouts for fairies right before I did that and snagged an expansion with those 50 Kps... not going to talk about that at all.

 

[DeletedUser4778]

Big Box 12 rolls, 340 Flakes back, 4 Trees and I know when to walk away from the table.
1. 25 kp
2. 140 sf
3. 12 g.relics
4. tree
5. 200 sf
6. 12 g.relics
7. 25 kp
8. tree
9. 12 d.relics
10. tree
11. 12 g.relics
12. tree

I want even talk about gems being my boost and those 36 relics.. or that I finished advanced scouts for fairies right before I did that and snagged an expansion with those 50 Kps... not going to talk about that at all.

Hmm, there seems to be a pattern. All the big box relic gains I got were also gem relics -- same with an FS member. We also both got Watchtower Ruins rune shards. I'm glad I didn't get 25 KP although I would have actually preferred those over rune shards because I'm not interested in runes until I unlock the Mountain Halls.

For the small box tries, I got Plank relics twice and Marble relics once and of course it's the latter which is my boost. Didn't care for the Planks at all since I don't ever plan to produce Ensorcelled Endowment which I've been getting from NH lately (3x in one day!). Would have much preferred Steel relics for PoP spells but at least the Steel tourney's coming up next.

Also, you lucky dog you, you got to enter Fairies. The bonuses are much much better than in dwarves. 2500 culture vs. 1990 (which they couldn't even make into 2000 bah humbug) makes it way better than the Temple of Fire. Not to mention the 1000 vs. 800 culture and pop bonuses for the Winter Star. I couldn't enter Dwarves before Halloween ended and although I might be able to enter Fairies before Flurry ends, it's already too late for the Snowy Charming Tree and may be too late for the Winter Star. I really wish they would count building bonuses from the time you placed them, especially with all the effort we expended.

 

[DeletedUser]

To compute the outcome analytically (without a computer simulation) one first needs the expectation values for each box.
The fact that you gain flakes from opening boxes complicates the calculation, but not too much.
I'll do the numbers for the small box:
On average one gets 0.13*50+0.17*90 = 21.8 flakes = 0.436 small boxes
Using a geometric series, we get 1/(1-0.436) = 1.773
So, for every small box we buy, we get not only one reward, but - on average - 1.773.
For the building, relics and so on this results in:

• 0.124 daily buildings
  
• 1.915 T1 relics
• 1.152 Kp
• 0.248 runes

per 50 flakes.

For the medium box, you get 0.191 daily buildings. Normalizing that to the flakes of a small box: 0.106 buildings per 50 flakes.
The large box gives 0.325 buildings per box, or 0.116 buildings per 50 flakes.

This agrees with the simulation. The small box is best for buildings next comes the large and last the medium.

In terms of globes:
A small box gives 1.773 globes per 10 flakes, the medium 1.629 and the large 1.855.
So, to gain a maximum of globes, you should get the large box.

These are no new results, but might give some confidence to people who mistrust simulations ;-)

Edit: This are not probabilities, but the average expected outcomes of buying the respective boxes.

 

[DeletedUser5800]

Also, you lucky dog you, you got to enter Fairies.

I know right, I was actually still 90 Kp away on Advanced scouts but sitting on enough silk to buy them... crazy lucky, I've been hoping since this started that i would beat Winter stars there, this was just icing on the cake.

I couldn't enter Dwarves before Halloween ended

I started dwarves the day before Halloween, I apparently am just on a good timing arc. Though unintentional, I'll definitely take it.

The amount of good luck I've had in this game scares the hell out of me, somewhere the doom cloud is growing and waiting.

 

[DeletedUser4778]

The amount of good luck I've had in this game scares the hell out of me, somewhere the doom cloud is growing and waiting.

I think the doom cloud is over me. I've always been unlucky in many things (I would say everything but that's too hyperbolic although it certainly feels like it), not just in this game. I do think it's a major reason why I rely on skill and calculations so I can compensate for my "lack of luck". I'm normally not envious or superstitious but sometimes gah it burns when I see other people like my lucky dragon of a brother walk away with all these raffle prizes time after bloody time. People say I'm extraordinarily lucky with my die rolls but that's not luck...that's knowing exactly how to roll each x-sided die and it's harder the more numbers there are. I know the d4, d6, d8, d10, and d20 die by heart but not the d12 because I don't often roll that and let's not even talk about the very unwieldy d100. My brother and friend have the same skill. It aggravated our DM to no end and, when I was a DM, players beside me were in charge of shifting the die from my right to left hand and vice versa every so often (usually after a minimum of 3 rolls and a max of 5, but immediately after two if I roll two 20s in a row especially since it's not unusual for me to roll four 20s without even being conscious of it) so my hand would need to adjust and lower my chances of instant kills. Good rolls are great when you're a player, awful when you're a DM and constantly killing your players. I actually used the DM screen to hide my rolls and would lie when I killed them with my rolls and just say "1 hp, quarter hp, or half hp," or just toss out a number that I knew would let them survive at least 1 more round. I got sick of it and finally implemented the average number rule to minimize die rolling which my players instantly all agreed with to minimize my kills.

 

[DeletedUser5800]

I rely on skill and calculations so I can compensate for my "lack of luck".

I do both, I put in the work and then just get lucky anyway. LOL

 

[DeletedUser43]

my "lack of luck".

I can relate. 8 big boxes opened. I only got one building. Sigh.

 

[DeletedUser2424]

@fasdfTTT - it was in no ways a complain of mine, I should have said that in my first post - sorry if you read it that way.

Big misunderstanding, I meant my reply to your post. I didn't think your post was negative in any way shape or form.

On live, I have 2 cities ready to go "all in" for winter stars using the smallest bets.

Thats my plan too

@Ludwig Vanhelsen
If you want to see all our prizes, I added it to the second sheet on
www.tinyurl.com/soggysnow2

AWESOME WORK. Way more than a copy and paste hero.

 

[DeletedUser1390]

This is fascinating, thank you!

Regarding the plan to go all in for Winter Stars, I felt I should just point out that per TheCoolest's chart of prize values, while the Winter Star offers the best value per square, the Glacier Garden offers the most value per snowflake (or per square per snowflake), since you are getting 66.6% more building for the same number of snowflakes. Not saying that definitely makes it better, but that it's a consideration.

 

[Ashrem]

while the Winter Star offers the best value per square, the Glacier Garden offers the most value per snowflake (or per square per snowflake), since you are getting 66.6% more building for the same number of snowflakes. Not saying that definitely makes it better, but that it's a consideration.

Agreed. For those of us who are not to the stage where value per square is critical to our success, and for whom these buildings will likely be replaced in a few chapters, unless the Winter Star is so attractive that you plan to keep it forever, The garden is probably a better choice, presuming that the extra four days won't carry you into a new chapter. If you anticipate a strong possibility of being in a new chapter 4 days after the garden drops, then the increase in value makes it worth waiting. since the Star will be close to the same as the garden from a chapter earlier.

 

[DeletedUser2424]

...while the Winter Star offers the best value per square, the Glacier Garden offers the most value per snowflake (or per square per snowflake)

Good point. I would encourage everyone to make the decision based on what they can fit in their city layout the best.
I have a slight aversion to a 5x3 as it's a bit more susceptible to getting helped by neighbors (than a smaller one)... which may be a good thing or bad thing.

 

[DeletedUser2191]

Good point. I would encourage everyone to make the decision based on what they can fit in their city layout the best.
I have a slight aversion to a 5x3 as it's a bit more susceptible to getting helped by neighbors (than a smaller one)... which may be a good thing or bad thing.

If only that were true 100% of the time. I have 5 x 5 sized culture buildings carrying the highest value on a per building basis, grouped together, not surrounded by anything else and still my smaller culture buildings get clicked on.

 

[DeletedUser4778]

If only that were true 100% of the time. I have 5 x 5 sized culture buildings carrying the highest value on a per building basis, grouped together, not surrounded by anything else and still my smaller culture buildings get clicked on.

Before now, I put all my culture buildings far far away from the Main Hall but they still get clicked on even though I ask for MH help. It's like people don't know how to read. I find it slightly annoying because my city header almost never changes and clicking on a city takes you straight to the MH.

 

[Ashrem]

Before now, I put all my culture buildings far far away from the Main Hall but they still get clicked on even though I ask for MH help.

If that's fellowship, there's no real excuse, but if it's a visitor, here's some of what goes on for me:

If I'm just trying to help as many people as I can, as fast as I can, (probably because I'm tired but need some coin) I have the browser shrunk to 50% so pretty much the entire city is viewable all at once. If it's someone who consistently helps back, giving me a chance to get some extra tools a few times a week, then I'm paying attention to what they want. But if the person almost never helps me, I could give two farts what they say they want helped. I'm going to click the fist thing I see that looks reasonable. Large culture gets the best shot, but why should I care what they want if they aren't going to reciprocate?

I try to watch for buffs, so that if someone has a buff on something that gets a help icon, there's about a 99% chance I'll hit it. More people want culture than don't, so unless your request is blatantly obvious and I have a reason to care, it's going to be culture. I'll get it wrong less often than if I hit the main hall every time.

I also don't care if they get it wrong on mine. Ever. The fact that they helped is good enough that I feel completely disinclined to criticize what they picked.

 

[DeletedUser4778]

If that's fellowship, there's no real excuse, but if it's a visitor, here's some of what goes on for me:

If I'm just trying to help as many people as I can, as fast as I can, (probably because I'm tired but need some coin) I have the browser shrunk to 50% so pretty much the entire city is viewable all at once. If it's someone who consistently helps back, giving me a chance to get some extra tools a few times a week, then I'm paying attention to what they want. But if the person almost never helps me, I could give two farts what they say they want helped. I'm going to click the fist thing I see that looks reasonable. Large culture gets the best shot, but why should I care what they want if they aren't going to reciprocate?

I try to watch for buffs, so that if someone has a buff on something that gets a help icon, there's about a 99% chance I'll hit it. More people want culture than don't, so unless your request is blatantly obvious and I have a reason to care, it's going to be culture. I'll get it wrong less often than if I hit the main hall every time.

I also don't care if they get it wrong on mine. Ever. The fact that they helped is good enough that I feel completely disinclined to criticize what they picked.

Old fellowship, yes, which is one reason why I felt. New fellowship is great -- everyone respects my city header. The neighbors who don't are an old FS member, a neighbor (who, in fairness, helps everyday, she just keeps polishing the smallest culture building but, hey, at least I get some supplies in return and now I just polish the smallest culture item she has too and never help her out with trades anymore -- petty, I know, but I'm tired of helping people who don't help others because just yesterday, yet another neighbor whom I helped went around and posted Tier 3 goods for an obscene amount of Tier 1. I could be wrong and they desperately need Tier 1 goods but I doubt the high possibility of that due to the frequency).

 

[DeletedUser3489]

Well, if we wanted to take this up another level, we could do a Monte Carlo simulation ... sorry, can't do it this time ... family time over the holidays, I'll try to do it for the next event.

Please allow me to voice a concern and a related suggestion/question:

When you're opening chests, the developers give you certain percentages that are supposed to represent the probabilities for certain outcomes.

... For example, if you're opening the large chest, the advertised likelihood of getting the "prize of the day" is 25%, with other percentages for KPs and Runes and Relics, et cetera.

My concern is that the percentages that are advertised may not reflect reality.

(Yes, I realize that I am but a single data point and may have had the misfortune of being the proverbial outlier!)

So, my goal for this event was to stock up on some Glacial Gardens. Here is how it turned out for me, after opening 46 boxes:

Glacial Garden (the prize!) 7/46 (only 60.9 % of the expected value! (expected value = 11.5))

Elixir Relics (garbage, I'm boosted in Dust) 7/46 (a whopping 152 % of the expected value (expected value = 4.6))

Shards (all of them low level and useless) get this ... 9/46 (off the scale, 163% of the expected value (expected value = 5.5))

... the rest of them were close to the expected value.

Summa Summarum:

When you open your Snow Flurry Gift Boxes, keep track of your results and post here ... let's see if the percentages advertised by the Devs actually represent reality!

 

[SoggyShorts]

Glacial Garden (the prize!) 7/46 (only 60.9 % of the expected value! (expected value = 11.5))

That is well within the normal range of expected probability. On the low end for sure, but by no means extraordinary.
The equivalent would be flipping a coin 46 times and getting heads only 13 times instead of the "expected" 23.
My results, and a few others, can be seen on sheet 2 of the link in my signature

 

[DeletedUser3489]

As I said, Soggy Shorts, I am just one data point ... but if ya factor in all three of my outliers (low end for the good stuff, 2x high end for the garbage) its at least worth a mention. Let's see whether others might have had similar experiences . . . . .