Snow Flurry Probabilities (GP's and Bldgs)

[DeletedUser3696]

Lol, nope, that's not how math works.
If I say the chance of flipping a coin and getting heads is 50%, just because you got heads in 1 try doesn't mean the odds were actually 100%

The odds of people not fully understanding how odds work is 100% as a group. Individuals will vary!!

 

[Ashrem]

There is also a 100% chance that in any given online conversation, at least one person will misinterpreted the tone of at least one other message.

 

[DeletedUser2855]

it happens lol , but math and chance can be different then what real test result give that why you need to improve math behind predicting score

 

[DeletedUser2424]

it happens lol , but math and chance can be different then what real test result give that why you need to improve math behind predicting score

I'm confused what you think is wrong. With 8000 Snowflakes you have 55% chance of getting the 3rd grandprize. So, that is expected.
You did end up with 4 less daily exclusives then expected (as did I... I only got 12)... but that doesn't mean the math is wrong... There are people in my fellowship that did better than the odds and some got exactly what was predicted.

Interpret the numbers i quoted as such... out of a simulation which ran 100,000 times the average number of buildings for a given number of snowflakes is what is shown in the daily exclusive column.

 

[Deleted User - 1178646]

@fasdfTTT ,
Any chance you run this for the current event as well?

we can accumulate +- 4600 sky essence this event.
980 from the day rewards (28*35)
840 from the random spawns (28*30)
2787 from the main quest
-----------------------------------------
4607 sky essence

chest cost: 250 - 400 - 800

 

[Deleted User - 1178646]

nvm looks like it's the same table as winter event. so we can use the same list

Kinda rubbish, we dont even have a guaranteed 2nd prize even if we do and collect everything.

 

[Jackluyt]

Has anyone re-done these figures for the Autumn Event?

Armendil came up with these figures:

Here‘s what you would get if you spent 6,300 nuts on all of the same type of nutshells, and reinvested all of your extra nuts. (note - you
probably won ‘t get that many nuts!)
Small - 15.7 special buildings, 112 KP, 1,120 sprouts
Medium - 13.3 specials, 102 KP, 1,020 sprouts
Large - 15.9 specials, 146 KP, 1,160 sprouts

The best chance of winning the Third Prize is if you open only large shells.
Medium shells appear to be not much use for anything at all!




:

 

[Ashrem]

(note - you
probably won ‘t get that many nuts!):

No probably about it. I've got 4 steps left and am only at 3400. Even 25 days at 35 is only bringing that up less than another 1000

 

[Risen Malchiah]

Today's surprise double sprout bonus throws another factor into the mix. If we knew how many bonus sprout days there are likely to be, we could recalculate the odds for the third grand prize. 40 sprouts for the large box (instead of 20) versus 10 for the small box (usually only 5).

 

[DeletedUser2424]

Hey Guys,

Been MIA for the last 5 months on a trip around the world. Are the probabilities the same? Let me know how this event is different and i'll update the simulator and post new probabilities.

 

[Pheryll]

The double sprouts will still favor the large chests- it is not bonus hazelnut reward so no internal calculations need to be readjusted. All we are dealing with is a simple multiplication by two.

That said, I have redone the calculations in hazelnuts per whatever prize, so that you can see what the expected values are; the smaller number is the better number.

Hazelnut calculations	Small	Medium	Large

[TR1][TD]Hazelnuts per chest[/TD][TD]28.2[/TD][TD]61.4[/TD][TD]107.8[/TD][/TR1]
[TR2][TD]Hazelnuts per sprout[/TD][TD]5.64[/TD][TD]6.14[/TD][TD]5.39[/TD][/TR2]
[TR1][TD]Hazelnuts per rune shard[/TD][TD]282[/TD][TD]204.667[/TD][TD]269.5[/TD][/TR1]
[TR2][TD]Hazelnuts per 1% coin[/TD][TD]14.462[/TD][TD]9.446[/TD][TD]13.611[/TD][/TR2]
[TR1][TD]Hazelnuts per 1% supply[/TD][TD]14.462[/TD][TD]9.446[/TD][TD]13.611[/TD][/TR1]
[TR2][TD]Hazelnuts per 1 hour boost[/TD][TD]33.176[/TD][TD]45.147[/TD][TD]29.615[/TD][/TR2]
[TR1][TD]Hazelnuts per daily building[/TD][TD]402.857[/TD][TD]472.308[/TD][TD]431.2[/TD][/TR1]
[TR2][TD]Hazelnuts per knowledge point[/TD][TD]56.4[/TD][TD]61.4[/TD][TD]43.12[/TD][/TR2]

 

[DeletedUser7736]

Any chance of seeing the same kind of "Population" to "Tile" building ratio again in the near future that was in this Snow Flurry event?

 

[DeletedUser]

Any chance of seeing the same kind of "Population" to "Tile" building ratio again in the near future that was in this Snow Flurry event?

This is the thread you want to be posting in: https://us.forum.elvenar.com/index.php?threads/evolution-of-the-phoenix-feedback.19725/