Decided to crunch some numbers and use a previous example I posted in this thread. Again, here are the armies of 2 Steel Provinces, both in Ring 7. There's only a town and two provinces between them. One was scouted in Chapter 4 before the new battle system and the other was scouted just today in Chapter 5 after completing Advanced Scouts research.
Steel (scouted in Chapter 5 with Advanced Scouts)
410 thieves II, 137 thornrose mages, 68x2 swamp monsters II
= squad size 410, 683 troops, 4 squads
243 thieves II, 41 orc warriors, 41x6 swamp monsters II
= squad size 243, 530 troops, 8 squads
297x2 thieves II, 50 orc warriors, 50x3 swamp monsters II
= squad size 297, 794 troops, 5 squads
297x4 thieves II, 99 thornrose mages, 50 swamp monsters II
= 1337 troops, squad size 297, 6 squads
297 thieves II, 99x3 thornrose mages, 50x2 swamp monsters II = squad size 297, 694 troops, 6 squads
366x3 thieves II, 89 thornrose mages, 44 orc warriors, 44x2 swamp monsters II
= squad size 266, 1319 troops, 7 squads
341x2 thieves II, 114x2 thornrose mages, 57 swamp monsters II
= squad size 341, 967 troops, 5 squads
266 thieves II, 89 thornrose mages, 44 orc warriors, 44x4 monsters II
= squad size 266, 487 troops, 7 squads
Steel (scouted in Chapter 4)
390x3 thieves II, 130 thornrose mages, 65x3 swamp monsters II
= squad size 390, 1495 troops, 5 squads
600 thieves II, 200 thornrose mages, 100x2 swamp monsters II
= squad size 600, 1000 troops, 4 squads
355x2 thieves II, 118x2 thornrose mages, 59x4 swamp monsters II
= squad size 355, 1182 troops, 8 squads
390x3 thieves II, 130 thornrose mages, 65 orc warriors, 65x2 swamp monsters II
= squad size 390, 1495 troops, 6 squads
435x2 thieves II, 73 orc warriors, 73x3 swamp monsters II
= squad size 435, 1162 troops, 6 squads
435x2 thieves II, 73 orc warriors, 145 thornrose mages, 73x2 swamp monsters II
= squad size 435, 1234 troops, 6 squads
435 thieves II, 73 orc warriors, 145x2 thornrose mages, 73x2 swamp monsters II
= squad size 435, 944 troops, 6 squads
600 thieves II, 100 orc warriors, 200 thornrose mages, 100 swamp monsters II
= squad size 600, 1000 troops, 4 squads
Let's take the first province and arrange from lowest to highest in terms of number of troops:
= squad size 266, 487 troops, 7 squads
= squad size 243, 530 troops, 8 squads
= squad size 410, 683 troops, 4 squads
= squad size 297, 694 troops, 6 squads
= squad size 341, 967 troops, 5 squads
= squad size 297, 794 troops, 5 squads
= squad size 266, 1319 troops, 7 squads
= squad size 297, 1337 troops, 6 squads
And now in terms of # of squads:
= squad size 410, 683 troops, 4 squads
= squad size 341, 967 troops, 5 squads
= squad size 297, 794 troops, 5 squads
= squad size 297, 694 troops, 6 squads
= squad size 297, 1337 troops, 6 squads
= squad size 266, 487 troops, 7 squads
= squad size 266, 1319 troops, 7 squads
= squad size 243, 530 troops, 8 squads
(This is the normal number of squads I encounter in each province which means only 1 encounter has fewer squads than mine, 2 have the same size, and 5 have more. That strikes me as unfair.)
And lastly in terms of squad size:
= squad size 243, 530 troops, 8 squads
= squad size 266, 487 troops, 7 squads
= squad size 266, 1319 troops, 7 squads
= squad size 297, 694 troops, 6 squads
= squad size 297, 1337 troops, 6 squads
= squad size 297, 794 troops, 5 squads
= squad size 341, 967 troops, 5 squads
= squad size 410, 683 troops, 4 squads
Let's now check the combat ratio using the max squad size of 240 available in Chapter 4:
= squad size 243, 530 troops, 8 squads, ratio: 1.62
= squad size 266, 487 troops, 7 squads, ratio: 1.55
= squad size 266, 1319 troops, 7 squads, ratio: 1.55
= squad size 297, 694 troops, 6 squads, ratio: 1.49
= squad size 297, 1337 troops, 6 squads, ratio: 1.49
= squad size 297, 794 troops, 5 squads, ratio: 1.24
= squad size 341, 967 troops, 5 squads, ratio: 1.42
= squad size 410, 683 troops, 4 squads, ratio: 1.37
(Assuming I fought the above in Chapter 4 and using the Combat Ratio of 1.2 to 1.4 for moderate difficulty, all but 1.62 fell within this range so the balance tips towards supposed fairness.)
Now apply the max squad size of 366 available in Chapter 5:
= squad size 243, 530 troops, 8 squads, ratio: 1.06
= squad size 266, 487 troops, 7 squads, ratio: 1.02
= squad size 266, 1319 troops, 7 squads, ratio: 1.02
= squad size 297, 694 troops, 6 squads, ratio: .97
= squad size 297, 1337 troops, 6 squads, ratio: .97
= squad size 297, 794 troops, 5 squads, ratio: .81
= squad size 341, 967 troops, 5 squads, ratio: .93
= squad size 410, 683 troops, 4 squads, ratio: .90
(Assuming I fought the above in Chapter 5, all fights average out to normal difficulty.)
Factors that I believe affect difficulty:
Troop Composition, Terrain, # of Squads, First Strike
I'm not even going to see what the figures are with the max squad size for Chapter 6 since this province needs to be solved before entering Chapter 6 to meet the province requirement.
Let's assume, just assume, that the above province is typical for all provinces I'm facing right now. But I can only barely win now -- mainly because of the nerfing of the sorceress -- and when I do, losses are so heavy that it's not worth the time, resources, and energy.
To all followers of this Battle Sheet, I have now turned mostly Negotiator/Caterer/Scalped.