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    Your Elvenar Team

Conspiracy Theory o.O

  • Thread starter DeletedUser5800
  • Start date

DeletedUser5800

Guest
I suspect, based on hearsay and very little data and ignoring that people are way more likely to vocalize failure over success, that the event daily building % text is higher than the actual code. That the code is actually closer to half of the text and the remainder is split between the gold and supply instants in an effort to encourage buying diamonds to win the building you really want. I furthermore believe this was also the case in the Easter event (although it favored runes as instants didn't exist) and that the Flurry was the last time we saw the real numbers.
....and go! :D
 

qaccy

Well-Known Member
Sounds about right. Whatever you want most is what you're going to see the least, and the game is intrinsically linked to your thoughts and preferences so the odds are able to dynamically update on the fly for each individual player. It must be like this because that's the only method that can simultaneously explain multiple distinct individuals being unlucky with multiple distinct prizes and prize boxes.
 

DeletedUser5800

Guest
qaccy said:
the game is intrinsically linked to your thoughts and preferences so the odds are able to dynamically update
Click to expand...
upload_2017-10-7_17-58-5.png
 

DeletedUser5800

Guest
Exvoxmachina said:
"Aliens exist."
"No ones ever seen one."
"Exactly."
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Unless of course we are the aliens... our ancestors marooned here on prison colony Earth from Alpha Centari for being to violent for our native society. Side effects include back pain from higher gravity, being disease prone from a non-native immune system, sun intolerance from the brighter sun, sleep disorder from the shorter days and explains why our evolution hasn't quite fit with earth native species, i.e. our heads are to big.
I bring as undebatable proof that I have all those problems. :p
 
Risen Malchiah

Risen Malchiah

Well-Known Member
I just opened dozens of small boxes (since it's a double sprouts day) and that 13% chance for Coin Rain was clearly more like 80%. The game knows I'm always full on coins and don't need them.

But on the other hand, the game also knows I didn't want the daily temporary building and the game correctly didn't give me one. Even though I secretly wouldn't have minded since they're 5x better than they used to be and it would actually benefit me more than a Coin Rain. So who knows, maybe the game DOES know better than I do. :p

Just make sure you stay focused and tell yourself out loud that you DONT want the thing you really do. ;)
 

DeletedUser5800

Guest
Risen Malchiah said:
tell yourself out loud that you DONT want the thing you really do.
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Luckily I don't want anything, I just made the 1 beverage today, have been picking nuts up off the ground and scored a 100% coin refill with them right as I went dead broke upgrading res. so that was actually cool. Figured they might throw that one up again so decided to go ahead and run the quest line until I get stuck on non-boost just for the hell of it.

But I really do have an instinctual feeling that the text is not reflective of the code... I realize it's a wild accusation that can never be validated but this is the forums after all. :eek:
 
Risen Malchiah

Risen Malchiah

Well-Known Member
Lord Draconian said:
Luckily I don't want anything, I just made the 1 beverage today, have been picking nuts up off the ground and scored a 100% coin refill with them right as I went dead broke upgrading res. so that was actually cool. Figured they might throw that one up again so decided to go ahead and run the quest line until I get stuck on non-boost just for the hell of it.
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Were you boycotting the event? Because the rewards for this one have been really good so far and even the consolation prizes (namely the 5h-14h time boosts) are very good. The non-boosted are actually not the difficult parts of this event. The six research/upgrades and three scout/upgrades were far more annoying than collecting a set of 9hr non-boosts occasionally. A single set of tier 1's will do.
 

DeletedUser5800

Guest
Risen Malchiah said:
A single set of tier 1's will do.
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Hard to do 10K+ pop. in the hole... picked a bad time to sell off all those cult/pop hybrids from when the % were still right! But I had a college to build. In retrospect I should have built a couple of sets before I dug that big of a hole but I was so pissed off at the failed adventure I couldn't think straight. All good though, instants are nice and I'll grab a few, most everything else would have been very temporary before being replaced by Grape Farms anyway.
 

DeletedUser2870

Guest
Well, I do seem to have exceedingly bad luck during almost every event.

This one, I have spent 25x the 140nut chest in 2 sets (12 and 13 at a time) to get a certain daily prize on one account. The chance of getting it is supposed to be 25% each time. So why did I only get 2 out of 25 tries?
And that happened with the daily prizes on the previous event. That 25% chance for me seems to be only 10% at best as I average not even 1 daily prize per 10-12 attempts.
What also seems to be the case is always getting the stuff that is of least use to me. If the kp's would be nice, I don't get them. Now that I'm at the end of the research tree, I get them about 25% of the time.
If one needs relics for an event-quest, suddenly the daily chests never seem to contain them anymore, and spending the collectibles also was a way of NOT getting them.

I'm not a conspiracy believer, but I really am getting a bit suspicious here

(edited after having been pointed out a mistake here, thanks, I hope this is better)
Btw...same goes for spells. If the event quest tells me to collect a certain amount of spells, suddenly the daily chests never have them anymore, while normally I get at LEAST one a a day. (When, again in compliance with not getting what one wants or needs, normally I don't want them. I have over 100 of every one, EXCEPT the meditation one, which is the one I want, so it can't be found in chests, meaning that's what I normally produce in my MA)
 
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DeletedUser2870

Guest
*lol*...I DID mention previous events, didn't I? But I guess I was so asleep yet (or too focused on this event, take your pick) I just mentioned the nuts instead of 'collectibles' or something like that. I'll edit that to make it clear.

Point is, I am almost ready to believe there is some kind of algorhytm figuring out what the most useless prize for me, then that gets shoved my way.
I mean, just the math on CONSISTENTLY not getting the daily prize even once with 10 or more tries on a 25% chance per try is so bad there isn't a bookie who would cover a bet on that. (and it gets even worse if I add up the same thing happening on my dutch account, where I have the same problem of needing 9 tries on average to score 1 daily prize. it got so bad I started keeping track over the last 3 events).

(edit: yes, talking about the 25% chance on the 140 collectibles here every time. I very well realise that the 50 collectibles only offer a 7% chance, but I'm getting ready to believe that may be better for me after all.)
 
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DeletedUser5800

Guest
Dhurrin said:
That 25% chance for me seems to be only 10% at best as I average not even 1 daily prize per 10-12 attempts.
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Exactly that. Sure you could just have bad luck but this is the story I have heard so many times. People that roll 20 times and get 0-2. As I mentioned above, it could be that people feel compelled to say something about that whereas what would be the opposite (people getting 2 or 3 times over the %) don't won't to brag about it lest they seem like a jerk. So the 'word on the street' if you will is flawed... but even within that assumption it still seems way overly skewed.

So then there is that I did over the % in the flurry and so did lots of people, it seemed pretty common for people to grab 8-12 winter stars and/or many a glacier garden. That would seem to be that other group, the good luck people, BUT doing visits you would see piles of winter stuff all over (still do) whereas there is just not the same groups of later event items. Perhaps my FS and neighborhood was just lucky then and not after, it's all speculation, it just has an undeniable bad feel to it.

We all know they decided the Flurry stuff was overpowered and got quite a bit of backlash over backing up on that, so could it be that they also reworked the % but left the text just so it wasn't yet another thing for a us to cry about?, or could it be that very many people decided it just wasn't worth doing thus the lack of piles of things from other events?, who knows, way to many variables, but it is curious.
 

DeletedUser2870

Guest
@Lord Draconian
Oh, I would agree with some points.
Yes, there are people getting many more in justa few attempts. One of my FS members on the dutch account got 6 of the daily prizes in 9 tries, and she was aiming for the same prize I did. So there definitely is a chance on doing much better. And yes, those people will perhaps not always brag. People tend to complain sooner when things are going against them then when getting more than would be expected.

And sure, I could have a stroke of bad luck. It happens, too bad. I don't have a problem with that.

But like I said, I started keeping track and I -on average, so measured over many attempts- really do seem to score only 1 out of 9-10 attempts on the days I try ( I ONLY really try on days with buildings)
So if I add up everything I have the stats on for myself, I find (split over 3 accounts) something like 30-40 attempts PER account PER event.
So I have 317 attempts on all 3 combined. Statistically that should net me about 75 daily prizes ( actually 78,75 but lets keep it down). When I count them out, I only get to 36. Less then HALF of what it should be.
That's why I feel its flawed. Over 300 attempts make a viable statistic. It could be a bit up or a bit down, but coming out on half of what it should be is really extremely unlikely.
Flip a coin 300 times, and the likelyhood of it doing about 75 heads and 225 tails is almost nil.
 
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