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    Your Elvenar Team

Evolution of the Phoenix feedback

Deborah M

Deborah M

Oh Wise One
Risen Malchiah said:
@Deborah M Your Rise of the Phoenix is still special. It's a very rare building which likely won't be seen again. And the fact that you have 2 is a testament not only to completing the original Phoenix event but also for placing high in an early FA when it was offered as a top tier award. I'll probably never own one and I'm still jealous. So keep them and keep them upgraded. :)
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:( It is the daily prize on day 20 :( So yeah, I am pouting :(
 
Deborah M

Deborah M

Oh Wise One
Ashrem said:
Recognizing that what kind of chests you pick will have an effect on the outcome. You can maximize your chance of getting a daily prize, or you can maximize your progress through the grand-prize list. You can't maximize both.
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Definitely this! :D I have always focused on prizes I wanted so I opened the highest % to get the daily prize. This time I'm focusing on least expensive to get feathers and it is working out much better than I expected. Wish I had read this before the first couple go rounds I did because I have never thought of any event this way. So far I have a fire one at 7 and a storm one at 6. Really hoping I can get both to at least 9 without another spend!!
 
Deborah M

Deborah M

Oh Wise One
Ashrem said:
I think that's a general life lesson, rather than Inno specific. Lots of stuff starts out special, with the cachet of limited availability, but the creators always bow to financial pressure in the end. Unless they actually say somewhere that availability is limited, in writing, and number them, it will eventually be available in a mass market version. I guess all I can offer is that you had something uncommon for a year? I know it's not the same, but hopefully that was some value.
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I know :( I played Castleville for years. From introduced to ended.. Toward the end they pulled this same crap. Every spending player I knew stopped spending because it was a slap in the face. Why spend on special things if they are going to give them away for free? Castleville died for various reasons but I have never doubted that was one of the reasons. FYI I have a pic of my Castleville city toward the end. I had 14 Phoenixes :D

(edit because I missed some at first glance)
 
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Pheryll

Pheryll

Set Designer
Ashrem said:
Recognizing that what kind of chests you pick will have an effect on the outcome. You can maximize your chance of getting a daily prize, or you can maximize your progress through the grand-prize list. You can't maximize both.
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While this is true, a maximization of either may not necessarily be the most desired outcome. For example, having a preference order of light wood, purple, dark wood; instead of light wood, dark wood, purple; only slightly decreases your feathers from optimum, but greatly increases your chance at a daily prize.
 

DeletedUser20951

Guest
RAWR! I'm at the halfway mark of the quests and should finish them before the Wells are offered as a daily prize. I fall between the finish the events as quickly as possible and absolutely no preparation types. I built a few temporary manufactories for a previous event, but mainly prefer to not alter my city layout in any manner, while keeping an eye on a Notepad doc containing a list of the quests that I delete along with my progress and somewhat plan a short distance ahead. Feel that the difficulty is more balanced, yet I am curious how those who don't look up the quests fare.

Edit: Wait, I was at the halfway mark ten quests ago. I hate you, dyscalculia, I hate you so much.
 
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The Unbeliever

Well-Known Member
Pheryll said:
While this is true, a maximization of either may not necessarily be the most desired outcome. For example, having a preference order of light wood, purple, dark wood; instead of light wood, dark wood, purple; only slightly decreases your feathers from optimum, but greatly increases your chance at a daily prize.
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This is my strategy for this event as well...
The difference between 20 vs. 20.7 is close enough that I will take the Purple over the Dark Wood, provided there's no Light Wood option.

Today I managed to luck out and win a couple 200 essences as well! :D:D:D
So I bagged 2 of the Phoenix Nest dailies + gathered 36 feathers and 'spent' only 250 essences from my initial total.
 
Pheryll

Pheryll

Set Designer
The Unbeliever said:
The difference between 20 vs. 20.7 is close enough that I will take the Purple over the Dark Wood, provided there's no Light Wood option.
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I originally thought that the purple chest might be a superior preference to the dark wood chest in acquiring feathers, even though it has a worse average. The reason had to do with weight versus availability. If I get the purple chest once, I am getting 3 feathers at 20.67 average sky essence cost per feather. If I take the dark wood chest I would only get 1 feather for 20 sky essences and would have to reroll to see what happens for the purchase of the other 2 feathers. Could a random pick do better than a guarantee? For this I had to come up with a selection of 7 chests in order of preference and correctly weight them. The end result is that preferring the dark wood chest was a slightly better option for feathers. If the purple chest cost only 81 it would definitely be chosen over the dark wood for feather optimization.

The difference between the two progressions, if between 5000 to 8000 essences are obtained, is that by favoring the purple over the dark wood, I on average would lose less than a feather and gain slightly more than 1 daily prize.
 
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DeletedUser20951

Guest
As someone who is as religious as a rock, I am digging the wording of the bard's quests. Been burned in this vein before, though, where I'm doing spastic cheerleading with sparkly atheist pom-poms and then the tale nosedives into some moralistic slap in the face mocking my lack of faith, causing me to yearn for the existence of an afterlife, so that those responsible may suffer for eternity there.
 
Ashrem

Ashrem

Oh Wise One
Pheryll said:
I originally thought that the purple chest might be a superior preference to the dark wood chest in acquiring feathers, even though it has a worse average. The reason had to do with weight versus availability. If I get the purple chest once, I am getting 3 feathers at 20.67 average sky essence cost per feather. If I take the dark wood chest I would only get 1 feather for 20 sky essences and would have to reroll to see what happens for the purchase of the other 2 feathers. Could a random pick do better than a guarantee? For this I had to come up with a selection of 7 chests in order of preference and correctly weight them. The end result is that preferring the dark wood chest was a slightly better option for feathers. If the purple chest cost only 81 it would definitely be chosen over the dark wood for feather optimization.
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But with only 2 out of nine chests below 23 essences/feather, odds are that at least one and very likely both of the two rolls (six chests) after you reject a purple chest will have no choice cheaper than 23. Doesn't that raise the cost of rejecting the purple chest, or is that already factored into the 20.67?
 
Pheryll

Pheryll

Set Designer
The 20.67 is the average cost per feather for the purple chest. That is (82 - 200 x 0.1 (chance of getting essences back))/3 feathers = 20.67.

To calculate the essences per feather ratio for all the chests, you would divide the essences per chest by the feathers per chest. To calculate each of these values the top 7 chests (you will never select the 8th and 9th as you have three options) are weighted in the following proportion 28:21:15:10:6:3:1. That is the chance of getting your top pick is 28/84 or 1/3, and the chance of getting the seventh best is 1/84. Multiply the weight of each chest by its adjusted essence cost (for example the 82 cost chest adjusts to 62 because of the 200 return 10% of the time) for the numerator or by the feathers produced for the denominator. The numerator and denominator should be a sum of all the seven chests.
 
Enevhar Aldarion

Enevhar Aldarion

Oh Wise One
All this fuzzy math makes no sense to me. A chest costs 82 essence to open and gives you 3 feathers. That is a cost of 27.33 essence per feather. If you do not care about anything other than the feathers, how is this chest a good choice?

I have been picking the lowest essence cost per feather chests from each set of chests on the couple of days there has been a daily prize I want and I feel I am doing fine so far. I am part way to completing the fourth grand prize and I am not even half way through the sequential quests do far and still have almost 2000 essence saved up. Maybe I have been on the lucky side of this, as it feels like I have gotten a lot of the 18 and 20-essence cost chests.
 
Ashrem

Ashrem

Oh Wise One
Enevhar Aldarion said:
It is not a guarantee, so I ignore that.
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If you will only get a small number of rolls going forward, then there's nothing wrong with ignoring it. But If you're eager to succeed, hoarding your essences and spending them all at once means that the percentages should come into play. In any event, it's what makes the purple chest the top choice for a lot of people.
 
Enevhar Aldarion

Enevhar Aldarion

Oh Wise One
SoggyShorts said:
That's not how probabilities work though, you ignoring them won't make them less real.:p
You asked what makes it a good chest, and the answer is mathematical probability.
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You want mathematical probability? I have opened a few of the purple chests to try to get the daily prize, but I have gotten more daily prizes so far from the 5% chance in the smallest chests than I have from the 30% chance in the purple chest.
 
Ashrem

Ashrem

Oh Wise One
Enevhar Aldarion said:
You want mathematical probability? I have opened a few of the purple chests to try to get the daily prize, but I have gotten more daily prizes so far from the 5% chance in the smallest chests than I have from the 30% chance in the purple chest.
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Technically, that's not probability, it's an anecdote. No matter how small the chance of outliers is, when thousands of people are playing, someone is going to get the crappy rolls and someone else the good ones. People rarely mention when they get average or better; it's always the below average results that they remember
 
Enevhar Aldarion

Enevhar Aldarion

Oh Wise One
Ashrem said:
Technically, that's not probability, it's an anecdote. No matter how small the chance of outliers is, when thousands of people are playing, someone is going to get the crappy rolls and someone else the good ones. People rarely mention when they get average or better; it's always the below average results that they remember
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Then the same applies to that 10% chance to get extra essence. It is just anecdotal.
 
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