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    Your Elvenar Team

Eldrasil's Ascending

Risen Malchiah

Risen Malchiah

Well-Known Member
@TedGrau That is some really good info. Now what is your opinion of large vs small box if opening on double sprout days for the goal of getting the 3rd GP? Still small boxes? Or does priority shift to opening large boxes?
 

DeletedUser7370

Guest
Risen Malchiah said:
@TedGrau That is some really good info. Now what is your opinion of large vs small box if opening on double sprout days for the goal of getting the 3rd GP? Still small boxes? Or does priority shift to opening large boxes?
Click to expand...
First GP 250, second GP 400, and third GP 800 makes a total of 1450. If you are opening entirely on double sprout days then any of them will work to get the 3rd GP. I would go with small boxes still since they give the best overall rewards, and are most likely to mitigate RNG vagaries.

Of course the numbers are based on the low end of random nut drops (say that fast, 10 times) and 26 days of collections. Opening boxes at earlier times alters those values a little, but I would think that if we have information about what is the last double sprout day then a player can be assured of getting the 3rd GP on that day without any trouble.
 
Risen Malchiah

Risen Malchiah

Well-Known Member
That's helpful. I have the 2nd GP unlocked and have the full 800 to go for the 3rd prize.

For 800 sprouts, I'd need 160 small chests (or 80 if opened on double sprout days) or 40 large chests (20 if doubled). That means I would need either 8000/4000 nuts for the small (discounting extra nut rolls) or 5600/2800 nuts for the large. Assuming my really bad luck, I would only have enough if I opened the large boxes on doubled days. But I will try it with the small boxes and see.

Now I just need another double sprouts day to pop up. :)
 

DeletedUser7370

Guest
Risen Malchiah said:
That's helpful. I have the 2nd GP unlocked and have the full 800 to go for the 3rd prize.

For 800 sprouts, I'd need 160 small chests (or 80 if opened on double sprout days) or 40 large chests (20 if doubled). That means I would need either 8000/4000 nuts for the small (discounting extra nut rolls) or 5600/2800 nuts for the large. Assuming my really bad luck, I would only have enough if I opened the large boxes on doubled days. But I will try it with the small boxes and see.

Now I just need another double sprouts day to pop up. :)
Click to expand...
Tell me how many nuts you have now I can put it in the spreadsheet to tell you your chance of success.

And just for you I added some things to my sheet. Given the numbers I used for starting box points, the produced boxes were: 79, 26, and 11; which equates to a generated box points of: 3950, 2340, and 1540. Using small boxes all the way is a significant bonus. The starting box points that I am using for this event is 5131.
 
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DeletedUser7370

Guest
Risen Malchiah said:
I have 2 cities. One has 1419 on quest 85. The other has 2349 on quest 90.
Click to expand...
I will report the highest values for each. 1419BP likely to generate 245 GP points with small boxes. 2349 likely to generate 420 GP points with large boxes (410 with small), I would pick small because of the resistance to RNG vagaries.
 
Risen Malchiah

Risen Malchiah

Well-Known Member
Thank you. And assuming diligent sprout collection and daily quests, I will have more nuts to spend toward the end, so hopefully the double days will come later on (if there are any more).

Edit: Better yet, make all the days I want the daily prize the double days. :)
 
Risen Malchiah

Risen Malchiah

Well-Known Member
Nioka said:
What are these double sprout days that y'all are talking about?
Click to expand...
When you open the chests, they reward 5, 10 or 20 sprouts based on the size. On some days, they will instead reward 10, 20 or 40, but that has only happened once. Hopes are that the double sprouts will show up again which in theory could make the 3rd Grand Prize possible.
 
Pheryll

Pheryll

Set Designer
TedGrau said:

Code: 
Coin Rain 15%   23      0       0       3.45
Coin Rain 25%   0       10      0       2.5
Coin Rain 33%   0       0       10      3.3
Supplies 15%    23      0       0       3.45
Supplies 25%    0       10      0       2.5
Supplies 33%    0       0       10      3.3
Time 5h         30      0       0       150
Time 8h         0       14      0       112
Time 14h        0       0       12      168

Medium boxes are again the biggest waste.
Click to expand...

Keep in mind that the medium and large boxes give 2 instants for supply and coin, with the large giving 2 for the time boost as well. The small boxes do not do well for instants.
 
SoggyShorts

SoggyShorts

Mathematician par Excellence
Pheryll said:
Keep in mind that the medium and large boxes give 2 instants for supply and coin, with the large giving 2 for the time boost as well. The small boxes do not do well for instants.
Click to expand...
Good catch as it does make large boxes more than twice as good for instants.

EDIT: nope, looks like that is factored in as 47 boxes would give instants 6.11x, that's why he has 12 there.
 
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Pheryll

Pheryll

Set Designer
The supply and coin are still off. The medium and large value should be double.

It looks like these calculations are more off than simply not factoring in the x2 multiplication. Below I have a table excerpt from my calculations (lower number is better because this is a hazelnut per prize ratio). Whatever total nut number Ted is using (5000?) simply divide that number by the ratio to get the expected value for the prize.


Hazelnut calculationsSmallMediumLarge

[TR2][TD]Hazelnuts per 1% coin[/TD][TD]14.462[/TD][TD]9.446[/TD][TD]13.611[/TD][/TR2]
[TR1][TD]Hazelnuts per 1% supply[/TD][TD]14.462[/TD][TD]9.446[/TD][TD]13.611[/TD][/TR1]
[TR2][TD]Hazelnuts per 1 hour boost[/TD][TD]33.176[/TD][TD]45.147[/TD][TD]29.615[/TD][/TR2]
 
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DeletedUser8187

Guest
By the time I go to bed tonight I will be on quest number 87. So I may not win all the prizes I was hoping to get, I think winning the instants come in a very close second. This will be the first long quest line that I can finish. I'm proud of that, so I'm enjoying the event.

Thank you INNO for the change-relics to instants, helping us little guys better able to get to the finish line. Not a UNICORN in sight!!!!!!! I would be excited just over the no unicorns. The culture/whatever they came with was cool, just sick of the unicorn.

Edit: thanks for not pointing out my use of "site" instead of sight. Must have been my excitement over NO unicorns!!!!
 
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Pheryll

Pheryll

Set Designer
Might as well lay out my entire table here:

Hazelnut calculationsSmallMediumLarge

[TR1][TD]Hazelnuts per chest[/TD][TD]28.2[/TD][TD]61.4[/TD][TD]107.8[/TD][/TR1]
[TR2][TD]Hazelnuts per sprout[/TD][TD]5.64[/TD][TD]6.14[/TD][TD]5.39[/TD][/TR2]
[TR1][TD]Hazelnuts per rune shard[/TD][TD]282[/TD][TD]204.667[/TD][TD]269.5[/TD][/TR1]
[TR2][TD]Hazelnuts per 1% coin[/TD][TD]14.462[/TD][TD]9.446[/TD][TD]13.611[/TD][/TR2]
[TR1][TD]Hazelnuts per 1% supply[/TD][TD]14.462[/TD][TD]9.446[/TD][TD]13.611[/TD][/TR1]
[TR2][TD]Hazelnuts per 1 hour boost[/TD][TD]33.176[/TD][TD]45.147[/TD][TD]29.615[/TD][/TR2]
[TR1][TD]Hazelnuts per daily building[/TD][TD]402.857[/TD][TD]472.308[/TD][TD]431.2[/TD][/TR1]
[TR2][TD]Hazelnuts per knowledge point[/TD][TD]56.4[/TD][TD]61.4[/TD][TD]43.12[/TD][/TR2]

The first row (hazelnuts per chest) is determined by subtracting the hazelnut bonuses from the cost. For the small chest it is 50 - 90 * 0.17 - 50 * 0.13 = 28.2. For the medium it is 90 - 140 * 0.14 - 90 * 0.10 = 61.4. For the large it is 140 - 200 * 0.07 - 140 * 0.13 = 107.8. The rest of the calculations are the top row divided by the percent chance, then divided by the magnitude. So Hazelnuts per 1% coin in the small chest would be (28.2 / 0.13) / 15 = 14.462.
 
SoggyShorts

SoggyShorts

Mathematician par Excellence
@Pheryll looks like your results are almost exactly the same as @TedGrau's.

For example with instants he says with 5k nuts
small gives 30x5h = 150h
large gives 12x14 = 168h

And your chart shows
small 33.1 nuts per 1h. 5000/33 = 151h
large 29.6 nuts per 1h. 5000/29 = 169h

And ted said he basically rounds down by not allowing you to win a partial reward, so that explains the difference.
 

DeletedUser7370

Guest
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